Kestus - Revision history

T at 01:20, 26 February 2023

2023-02-26T01:20:36Z

T: /* Conclusion */

2023-02-26T00:16:14Z

Conclusion

T at 11:18, 7 July 2022

2022-07-07T11:18:25Z

T: /* Introduction */

2022-07-07T10:08:46Z

Introduction

T: /* Keywords */

2021-12-02T06:29:05Z

Keywords

T: /* Keywords */

2021-12-02T06:28:04Z

Keywords

T: /* Reciprocal action */

2021-11-22T23:45:02Z

Reciprocal action

T: /* Reciprocal action */

2021-11-22T23:43:00Z

Reciprocal action

T at 23:41, 22 November 2021

2021-11-22T23:41:33Z

T at 21:39, 22 November 2021

2021-11-22T21:39:04Z

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 ==Abstract==
 The basic requirements for the scientific research (TORI axioms) are applied to the historic events. Analogies of events of centuries 18-21 are considered. The concept of historic forecasts is suggested, that implies the search for the quantitative parameters that can be used as criteria of similarity of various countries.
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 ==Kokkuvõte==
 <b>Ajalooliste sündmuste statistilised hinnangud</b>

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 The example with Russia is especially important for the Baltic countries: the [[collapse of RF]] should greatly increase the flux of migrants. Up to year 2021, Europe cannot accept these migrants.
-The future work, upon verification of Conjecture 1, may include the analysis of origin of the empiric constant "16 years".<rb>
+The future work, upon verification of Conjecture 1, may include the analysis of origin of the empiric constant "16 years".<br>
 The future work may include also search for other non-trivial parameters, similar for various countries.<br>
 If success, these parameters give base for the scientific prediction of historic events, forming new branch of the Historical science.

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 Such an approach is ideal for [[propaganda]], [[motivated reasoning]]; the non-polite term "[[female logic]]" <ref>
 Dmitry Becklemishev. Female logic. (2010)
-</ref> is also used in the similar meaning.
+</ref> is used in the similar meaning.
 The scientific forecast, as a [[scientific concept]], should show, what phenomena it describes, how it can be confirmed, verified, and how it can be rejected, refuted (if wrong), and how is relates with already published forecasts. The general belief in the efficiency of knowledge built in this way (I mean, the scientific knowledge) indicates, that such predictions should be more effective than the others, found in the literature.

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 The author of the statement "History does not toleratesubjunctive mood" is the Heidelberg professor [[Karl Hampe]], but in his formulation only the meaning of the expression is captured, although it is written differently, in German it looks like "Die Geschichte kennt kein Wenn".
 </ref>. In the vulgar interpretation, the non-logical approach to the historical science is often expressed also with sentences "history does not tolerate the subjunctive mood", "История не терпоит сослагательново наклонения".
-Such an approach is ideal for [[propaganda]], [[motivated reasoning]]; the non-polite then term "[[female logic]]" <ref>
+Such an approach is ideal for [[propaganda]], [[motivated reasoning]]; the non-polite term "[[female logic]]" <ref>
 Dmitry Becklemishev. Female logic. (2010)
 </ref> is also used in the similar meaning.

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 [[Usurpation]]
-[[Бреюнев Леонид Ильич]],
+[[Брежнев Леонид Ильич]],
 [[Вертикаль власти]],
 [[Гитлер Адольф Алоизиевич]],

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 ==Keywords==
-[[Collapse of RF]
+[[Collapse of RF]],
 [[Duration]],
 [[History]],

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 It does not matter, either the current Russian usurper exist biologically, as a fuhrer, unique dictator, or it is just a personage, interpreted by various artists, that look similar to the prototype and represents interests in the criminal clan of the Russian offees. In any of these cases, the criminal partners, who supply their boss with the information, are not interested to take into account the warnings.
 The important is, that the Russian offees know, that Russia goes to the collapse, in the same way, as the Soviet offees knew, that they lead the USSR to disintegration. Therefore, this research is not supposed to affect their behavior.
-As for the people, due to the practice of the election fraud, they cannot affect the political course of Russia: the announced official results of any elections in Russia do not depend on the way the citizen fill their ballots.
+As for the people, due to the practice of the election fraud, they cannot affect the political course of Russia: the announced official results of any election in Russia do not depend on the way the citizen fill their ballots.
 In such a way, I think, at the first approach, the reciprocal action of the predicted collapse of empire can be neglected.

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 No consultant could explain Napoleon Buonapart, that it is not a good idea, to declare himself an Emperor,
 that such a concentration of power leads to loss of the feedback, and, as result, the country may loss the colonies.
-No consultant said Napoleon, that, instead of to try to defeat the Russian army deeply inside Russia,
+No consultant could say Napoleon, that, instead of to try to defeat the Russian army deeply inside Russia,
-he could arrange the freedom for the Russian slaves at the territories, he already has in his control.
+he could arrange the freedom for the Russian slaves at the territories, he already has in his control. It is vain to say such a things to the Emperor. Leo Tolstoi describes the point of view, that even it someone could convince Napoleon to change this style of handling France and the French Army, even this would not affect the flow of the History
-No historian could explain to the talented painter Adolf Hitler,
+No historian could explain to talented painter Adolf Hitler,
 that he cannot handle the big country solving all the important questions by himself,
 that this unavoidable leads to errors, mistakes and failure.
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 From this point of view, nobody could save Hitler by any forecast.
-There is also example of the USSR. In 1969, Andrei Amalrik predicted its collapse during century 21 <ref name="amalrik"/>. One could think, that the Soviet genseks and their criminal partners, agents of KGB, could easily get access to that book, order their referents to analyze it, reveal the main mechanisms (total corruption, stupid propaganda, etc.) that cause the collapse, discuss these causes at the scientific seminars and scientific journals and, finally, eliminate the causes, preventing the collapse. But this did not happen. Instead of to publish that book, the Soviet offees had prohibited it, punished the author and, en fin, disrupted the USSR with the KGB’s putch in 1991. In such a way, the hypothesis, that “the Soviet genseks (Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko) did not know that they lead the USSR to the collapse” is not consistent. No alarm could prevent the collapse of the USSR [11,26].
+There is also example of the USSR. In 1969, Andrei Amalrik predicted its collapse during century 21 <ref name="amalrik"/>. One could think, that the Soviet genseks and their criminal partners, agents of KGB, could easily get access to that book, order their referents to analyze it, reveal the main mechanisms (total corruption, stupid propaganda, etc.) that cause the collapse, discuss these causes at the scientific seminars and scientific journals and, finally, eliminate the causes, preventing the collapse. But this did not happen. Instead of to publish that book, the Soviet offees had prohibited it, punished the author and, en fin, disrupted the USSR with the KGB’s putch in 1991. In such a way, the hypothesis, that “the Soviet genseks (Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko) did not know that they lead the USSR to the collapse” is not consistent. No alarm could prevent the collapse of the USSR.
 I think, in the first approach, the published prediction of collapse cannot affect the historic process. In the similar way, a passenger of the famous ship Titanic could not prevent the crash and sink of the liner. Even if he informs the Captain, that it is not good idea, to run the new ship at maximal speed in darkness, while the water is cold, and it is easy to meet an iceberg. Such a warning would be vain: the Captain would order the crew to lock the аlarmist in a room with good acoustic isolation, in order not to disturb other passengers nor the crew.
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 </ref>. The Russian usurper is believed to cause and handle the massive migration. Since 2021 September, various authors mention the problem of migrants from Belarus, attacking the border with Poland. The publications do not answer the following questions about the migrants:<br>
 . How many of them speak Russian or Belarusian?<br>
-. How may of them are fluent in Farsi, Arabic, Kurdish languages?<br>
+. How may of them are fluent in Farsi, Arabic, Kurdish languages? (Or in French, or in any of the Congo dialects?)<br>
-. How many of them are recognized by administration of some countries as the citizens? What do administration of these countries to help their citizen to get back?<br>
+. How many of them are recognized by administration of some countries as the citizens?<ref>
 . How many of the "migrants" are agents of [[KGB]] (like "[[Boshirov and Petrov]]")?<br>
 . Why the "migrants" (and those who sympathize them) do not sue the travel agency (Belarusian [[Centrkurort]] <ref name="ce">
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 ==Keywords==
 [[Duration]],
 [[History]],
 [[TORI axioms]],
 [[Usurpation]]
 [[Category:Duration]]

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 [[Kestus]] may mean [[Duration]] ([[Дурация]]) and refer to the estimate of duration of an autocratic regime since it de-ure eliminates the principle of [[separation of powers]]. The four historic  examples show, that typical values of duration are between 10 and 20 years. Within this hypothesis the "Russian Federation" is expected to collapse approximately in year 2036, plus-minus 4 years.
-Here, I present the English version of the Abstarct, the Estonian version of the Summary and the English version of the description of my hypothesis, conjecture.<br>
+Here, I present the English version of the Abstract, the Estonian version of the Summary and the English version of the description of my hypothesis, conjecture.<br>
 They use the same list of references.
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 . However, one may attribute the constant “16 years” to some coincidence; values of duration D for various countries occasionally happen to be similar. In such an approach, the elimination of principle of separation of power and the following collapse of the Empire can be considered as independent, not related events. Within this hypothesis, observations of values of Duration shorter than 10 years and/or longer than 20 years are expected to be observed as the confirmation. For year 2021, I did not found such examples.
 ==Discussion==