\documentclass[12pt,oneside]{book} \usepackage{cmap} \usepackage{geometry} %\paperheight 297mm \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} \usepackage[T2A]{fontenc} \usepackage[english]{babel} \usepackage{latexsym,amsmath,amssymb,amsbsy,graphicx} \usepackage{rotating} \usepackage{hyperref} \usepackage{wrapfig} \renewcommand\baselinestretch{1.2} %\textwidth 150mm %\oddsidemargin 5mm %\topmargin -18mm %\textheight 257mm %\pagestyle{plain} \textwidth 580pt \oddsidemargin -56pt \topmargin -90pt \textheight 740pt \pagestyle{plain} \large \usepackage{color} \definecolor{rose}{rgb}{1,.9,1} \definecolor{bottom}{cmyk}{0,1,1,0} \renewcommand\thesection{\arabic{section}} \addtolength{\skip\footins}{8pt} % Does it do anything? \usepackage[figurename=Fig.]{caption} \multlinegap10pt \newcommand \be {\begin{eqnarray}} \newcommand \ee {\end{eqnarray} } \newcommand \sx {\scalebox} \newcommand \rot {\begin{rotate}} \newcommand \ero {\end{rotate}} \newcommand \ing \includegraphics \begin{document} %\pagestyle{empty} \begin{center}\sx{3}{\sf Tartaria}\end{center} \vskip 8pt \begin{center}\sx{1.4}{by Dmitrii Kouznetsov}\end{center} \newcommand{\leadingzero}[1]{\ifnum #1<10 0\the#1\else\the#1\fi} \renewcommand{\today}{\the\year.\leadingzero{\month}.\leadingzero{\day}} This version is compiled \today Keywords: Utopia, Sci-fi, Gedankenexperiment, Barbarian, Forecast, Moscovia, Dvizhuha \large \parindent 0pt \parskip 4pt \vskip 20pt \baselineskip 16pt {\bf Abstract} \vskip 4pt The historic forecast for a century ahead is suggested. Gedankenexperiment is performed. The analysis is based on data available in the free access. The main goals of this research are: 1. Calibrate sources of information, to reveal propaganda. 2. Analyze the channels of collapse of a society that keeps minimum of Laws. 3. Suggest a forecast in a form that simplifies the refutation if it is wrong. 4. Test the applicability in History of methods borrowed from Physics and Math. The main theses of this research are not so new; they are already had been expressed in various forms; especially in centuries 20-21. However, the compilation and the risky extrapolation of the observer trends is new - as well as the attempt to reveal all the deduction, to provide the links used to build-up the primary assumptions. At the time or preparation of this research, the most dramatic events happen at Moscovia and vicinities: Annexation of Ichkeria, occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Annexation of Crimea, full-scale «dvizhuha» of Russia against Ukraine. This predetermines the region, where the «New Order» («Neue Ordnung», «Новый Мировой Порядок») is expected to happen. \\ The main action of the Gedankenexperiment happens at North, Central and East of Eurasia. Many publications about precedent related events appear in various languages; mainly in Russian. In order to avoid the misinterpretation (that easy happen at the translation), I do not translate the cites into English. In a first approximation, the «New Order» means the complete destruction of most social concepts of Western civilization, the transition to barbarism, including the deliberate destruction of food, disregard for state borders, and the murder of millions of people for the entertainment of the dictator and his accomplices. It is difficult to expect that any taboo can survive at such a crash. However at least some of norms of the Western Civilization are expected to recover, beginning with few minimal taboos. I try to reveal these taboos. Model of life in utopian, barbarian but a little but democratic country is considered. Attempts are being made to identify the shortcomings and instability of the model. {\bf Warning 1:} The model includes explicit description of extreme obscene barbarian customs. \\ The description may offend the religious sense of an adept of a popular religion. {\bf Warning 2:} The model uses direct speech in various languages, including slang. In the most of cases, the English translation is not supplied. {\bf Warning 3:} The Gedanlenexperiment should not be interpreted as a promotion of activity described. Please do not confuse the Narrator with the Personage. %\rule{300pt}{.6pt} %\vskip 8pt %------------------------------------------------------------------------------ \chapter{Initial conditions} \begin{wrapfigure}{r}{228pt} \vskip -54pt \begin{picture}(480,0) \put(0,0){\ing{ChtoTakoeMatematika300.jpg}} \end{picture} \vskip -4pt \caption{Common sense \cite{chto} \label{chto}} \vskip -8pt \end{wrapfigure} Several completely different aspects of human civilization happen to be interconnected. Their relation prompted me to analyze them in a single book. I list these topics below. %This section is just apology; one may skip it. The TORI axioms \cite{axioms} had been suggested for the Laser Science; then they happen to be useful in other area of Physics and Mathematics \cite{superfunctions}. This book is an attempt to apply them to Historic science. In particular, I am trying to analyze the so-called «common sense». One example of such a «common sense» is shown in Fig.\ref{chto} by Dima Verner \cite{chto}. One can check, that the addition in the billboard shown is performed correctly. Some other examples, as a «mean temperature of patients in a hospital», or «mean income of population of city», or «official price of a USA Dollar in Soviet rubles» may look a little bit more meaningful, but still ridiculous. Often, the attempts to reveal the reasons for some moral norms, traditions, customs meet the negative reaction: «The rules are established, just follow!». Sometimes, the attempts to justify the rules are observed, Often, these attempts look as a Motivated Reasoning \cite{beklemishev}, following the recipes «How to Write a Fake». Such a style look as a propaganda, causing the seduction to apply the «Rule of Newspeak», id est, to invert all the non-trivial concepts; to interpret the prohibition as a recommendation of even a prescription. In such a way, it may have sense to formulate some tules, that still can be justified, in order not to invert at least these rules. %This form one of goals of this book. %\section{calibration of sources of indormation} Any science is supposed to make predictions. I consider History as science and make no exception for this science. The predictions should formulated in the most strict, sharp, provocative way and refutable way, in order to simplify the refutation. This makes the contrast with predictions by political observers and astrologists. The basic assumptions are supposed to be formulated. The deduction is supposed to be explicit and reproducible. This book is an attempt to follow this style in the analysis of observations. \\ In the most of cases, such an observation is detection of a publication available in the free access. However, such a source of information should be calibrated, in order to understand, can the statements of the publication be applied "as is", or the source is qualified as «propaganda» and, by default, each non-trivial statement of the publication needs to be inverted. Several forecasts for Russia are observed. The most optimistic (for the Russian officials) forecast refers to Medvedev Dmitri Anatolievich; he expects Russia to survive until the end of century 21 («до скончания века»)\cite{veka}. Namely this estimate is used for the model. In the model, the Russian «dvizhuha», following the putin's plan, gradually escalates, following the putin's schedule (Путинский «график спецоперации» \cite{gazeta}). \begin{wrapfigure}{rt}{266pt} \sx{.2}{\begin{picture}(1024,440) \put(0,0){\ing{Graphic/o.png}} \end{picture}} \vskip -13pt \caption{Graphic of Dvizhuha \cite{gazeta,minfin} \label{graphicS}} \vskip 3pt \end{wrapfigure} The graphic of the Dvizhuha is shown in ifgure \ref{graphicS}. The graphic approximates the total loss \(L\) of Russian cannon fodder with quadratic function of time \(d\), measured in days since the 2022.01.01: \be L \approx 0.6\ d^2 \ee Basically, the putin's «dvizhuha» follows this graphic \cite{gazeta}. No other graphic of the Dvishuha («график спецоперации») is found at the Russian official cites. The extrapolation is suggested in 2023-2023. To year 2026, the Ukrainian estimates \cite{minfin} confirm this extrapolation; the mean consumption of the Russian cannon fodder becomes of order of thousand orks/day, and the total loss exceeds a million orks. The risky extrapolation suggests, that to end of 21st century, The most of population of Russia will be already consumed in the putin world war. The estimate above, its risky extrapolaiton, together with the projects to keep the same style until the end of century 21, gives the initial condition for the Gedankenespoeriment: the industry is ruined; the territory is contaminated and the only sparse spots that are still available for agriculture. the most of population is spent, the survivors are murderers, robbers, war crimes without any moral or religious ideas. However, this is only a model, based on the assumption, that the «Dvishuha» lasts until the end of 21th century.\\ in other models \cite{moscow2042, duration}, the RF collapses in 2042 or ever earlies. It will be interesting to see, which mode shows better agreement with a posteriori observations. One important topic of this book refers to taboos. The taboo is some prohibition characterized in that that not only some activity, but also its detailed description is prohibited. The simplest example is slang. In order to prohibit slang, it should be carefully described. One visitor, learning the language of a country, needs to learn also the most offensive slang - at leas to avoid it. This may look as a paradox: the stronger is prohibition of slang, the more it needs to be remembered. In general, this applies to any type of censorship. In order to prohibit the spreading of some information, it is necessary to describe it. But this description itself happens to be prohibited. This is the inherent contradiction of the entire concept of censorship. \begin{wrapfigure}{rB}{166pt} \vskip 2pt \sx{2}{\begin{picture}(480,90) \put(0,0){\ing{TikaGellaFragment360x400.jpg}} \end{picture}} \vskip -4pt \caption{Too young \cite{TikaGella} \label{TikaGella}} \vskip -13pt \end{wrapfigure} Many sides of human life seem to be under-investigated, not interpreted, not analyzed; at least in the standard educational scheme. The two stages are often observed:\\ 1. You, child, should not deal with adult questions. \cite{TikaGella}\\ 2. You are adult, you must understand by yourself. \cite{clark}\\ Certain topics happen to be underrepresented in the education: first, it is too early; then, it is too late. The model begins with totally destroyed moral norms. These norms are expected to be gradually recovered. The question is about the ordering of the recovery. Few basic rules (not kill, not steal, not misinform) can be established in the Constitution of the new society. Others are supposed to be delivered by bishops, mullahs, lamas, rabbis, etc. The gedankenexperiment is an attempt to estimate the rate of the recovery. \section{Canvas} It is difficult to expect that the interpretation of historic events of century 22 happens to be similar to the «common sense» of century 21. This chapter describes the basic of interpretation of events of century 21 \begin{thebibliography}{99} \label{references} \normalsize \baselineskip 14pt \parindent 2pt \bibitem{axioms}%1 \url{https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=36560} D. Kouznetsov. "TORI Axioms and the Application in Physics". Journal of Modern Physics, Vol. 4 No. 9, 2013, pp. 1159-1164. doi: 10.4236/jmp.2013.49155. \bibitem{superfunctions}%2 \url{http://web.archive.org/web/20250307203005/https://mizugadro.mydns.jp/BOOK/468.pdf}\\ \url{https://mizugadro.mydns.jp/BOOK/468.pdf} Dmitrii Kouznetsov. Superfunctions. Lambert Academic Publishing, July 28, 2020; 328 pages. \bibitem{chto}%3 \url{https://www.anekdot.ru/id/1494775/} Что такое математика. мемы 11 декабря 2024. \bibitem{beklemishev}%4 \url{https://web.archive.org/web/20250121192452/https://mizugadro.mydns.jp/t/index.php/Female_logic} D. Beklemishev. Female logic. (2025) \bibitem{veka}% \url{https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8040078} Медведев: Россия до скончания веков будет преследовать ЕС за воровство активов. 15.09.2025, 11:11 «Россия будет преследовать государства Евросоюза, ... до скончания века», — написал господин Медведев в Telegram-канале. .. \bibitem{gazeta} \url{https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2022/03/03/17376199.shtml} 03 марта 2022, 20:28 Путин заявил, что спецоперация на Украине идет по плану Анастасия Лежепекова Президент России Владимир Путин, выступая на заседании Совбеза, заявил, что спецоперация РФ на Украине «идет по плану». Об этом сообщает ТАСС. Глава государства сообщил об этом после минуты молчания по погибшим в ходе операции военнослужащим. «Хочу сказать, что специальная военная операция идет в строгом соответствии с графиком, по плану. Все поставленные задачи успешно решаются», — сказал президент. .. \bibitem{minfin} \url{https://index.minfin.com.ua/russian-invading/casualties/} Потери российской армии в Украине. Updated daily since 2022. \bibitem{moscow2042} \url{https://archive.org/details/moscow204200voin/page/n9/mode/2up} Moscow 2042 by Voinovich, Vladimir, 1932- // Publication date 1987 \bibitem{duration} \url{https://mizugadro.mydns.jp/PAPERS/2026duration.pdf} Dmitrii Kouznetsov. Statistic estimates for historic events. Mizugadro, 2026.04.13 \bibitem{TikaGella}%5 \url{https://moonkieshop.com/blogs/news/15-questions-ask-about-how-young-is-too-young} 15 Questions First-Time Parents Ask About How Young Is Too Young? By Amber Williams May 29, 2025 \bibitem{clark}%6 \url{https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/whats-wrong-you-dont-answer-its-stupid-question-monty-clark} What’s Wrong With You?! Don’t Answer That – It’s a Stupid Question // Monty Clark, MBA .. May 11, 2015 \end{thebibliography} \end{document}