Difference between revisions of "File:WarmingNASAquadratic2024.png"

Global warming: data for the «Mean temperature» by NASA at year 2024

and their quadratic approximation

fir(t) = 0.50957748 + t*(0.01669969 + t*0.00009021 );

Where t=y-2000

and y is time measured in years.

Data

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt (2024) Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)

Year No_Smoothing Lowess(5)

1880     -0.17     -0.10
1881     -0.09     -0.13
1882     -0.11     -0.17
1883     -0.18     -0.21
1884     -0.29     -0.24
1885     -0.34     -0.27
1886     -0.32     -0.28
1887     -0.37     -0.28
1888     -0.18     -0.27
1889     -0.11     -0.26
1890     -0.35     -0.26
1891     -0.23     -0.26
1892     -0.28     -0.27
1893     -0.31     -0.26
1894     -0.30     -0.24
1895     -0.23     -0.22
1896     -0.11     -0.20
1897     -0.11     -0.18
1898     -0.27     -0.17
1899     -0.17     -0.17
1900     -0.08     -0.20
1901     -0.15     -0.23
1902     -0.28     -0.26
1903     -0.37     -0.28
1904     -0.47     -0.31
1905     -0.26     -0.34
1906     -0.22     -0.36
1907     -0.39     -0.37
1908     -0.42     -0.39
1909     -0.48     -0.41
1910     -0.43     -0.41
1911     -0.44     -0.39
1912     -0.37     -0.35
1913     -0.35     -0.33
1914     -0.15     -0.31
1915     -0.14     -0.31
1916     -0.36     -0.30
1917     -0.46     -0.30
1918     -0.30     -0.30
1919     -0.28     -0.29
1920     -0.27     -0.28
1921     -0.19     -0.26
1922     -0.28     -0.25
1923     -0.26     -0.24
1924     -0.27     -0.23
1925     -0.22     -0.22
1926     -0.11     -0.22
1927     -0.22     -0.21
1928     -0.20     -0.20
1929     -0.36     -0.19
1930     -0.15     -0.19
1931     -0.09     -0.18
1932     -0.15     -0.17
1933     -0.28     -0.16
1934     -0.12     -0.15
1935     -0.19     -0.13
1936     -0.14     -0.10
1937     -0.02     -0.06
1938      0.00     -0.01
1939     -0.02      0.03
1940      0.13      0.07
1941      0.19      0.09
1942      0.07      0.11
1943      0.09      0.10
1944      0.20      0.07
1945      0.09      0.04
1946     -0.07      0.00
1947     -0.03     -0.04
1948     -0.11     -0.07
1949     -0.11     -0.08
1950     -0.17     -0.08
1951     -0.07     -0.07
1952      0.01     -0.07
1953      0.08     -0.07
1954     -0.13     -0.06
1955     -0.14     -0.06
1956     -0.19     -0.05
1957      0.05     -0.04
1958      0.06     -0.01
1959      0.03      0.01
1960     -0.03      0.03
1961      0.06      0.01
1962      0.03     -0.01
1963      0.05     -0.03
1964     -0.20     -0.04
1965     -0.11     -0.05
1966     -0.06     -0.06
1967     -0.02     -0.05
1968     -0.08     -0.03
1969      0.05     -0.02
1970      0.03     -0.00
1971     -0.08      0.00
1972      0.01      0.00
1973      0.16     -0.00
1974     -0.07      0.01
1975     -0.01      0.02
1976     -0.10      0.04
1977      0.18      0.07
1978      0.07      0.12
1979      0.16      0.16
1980      0.26      0.20
1981      0.32      0.21
1982      0.14      0.22
1983      0.31      0.21
1984      0.16      0.21
1985      0.12      0.22
1986      0.18      0.24
1987      0.32      0.27
1988      0.39      0.31
1989      0.27      0.33
1990      0.45      0.33
1991      0.41      0.33
1992      0.22      0.33
1993      0.23      0.33
1994      0.31      0.34
1995      0.45      0.37
1996      0.33      0.40
1997      0.46      0.42
1998      0.61      0.44
1999      0.38      0.47
2000      0.39      0.50
2001      0.54      0.52
2002      0.63      0.55
2003      0.62      0.58
2004      0.53      0.61
2005      0.68      0.62
2006      0.64      0.62
2007      0.66      0.63
2008      0.54      0.64
2009      0.66      0.64
2010      0.72      0.65
2011      0.61      0.66
2012      0.65      0.70
2013      0.67      0.74
2014      0.75      0.78
2015      0.90      0.83
2016      1.01      0.87
2017      0.92      0.91
2018      0.85      0.93
2019      0.98      0.93
2020      1.01      0.95
2021      0.85      0.97
2022      0.89      0.99
2023      1.17      1.01

C++ generator of curves

// ado.cin should be loaded in order to compile the code below

#include <math.h>
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include "ado.cin"

#define DB double
DB f32(int y){ DB t=y-2000.; return 
0.50957748 + t*(
0.01669969 + t*
0.00009021 );
}

int main(){ FILE *o; int M,m,N,n,r,Y,y; float g,h,a[2100],z;
o=fopen("../01.txt","r");

for(m=0;m<240;m++)
{
r=fscanf(o,"%d%f%f",&y,&g,&h); if(r<3) break;
a[y]=g; //printf("%4d %5.2f %5.2f %5.2f\n",y,g,a[y],h);
}
fclose (o);

o=fopen("3o.eps","w");
//ado(o,750,220);
ado(o,1000,400);
#define M(x,y) fprintf(o,"%6.2f %8.2f M\n",0.+x,0.+y);
#define L(x,y) fprintf(o,"%6.2f %8.2f L\n",0.+x,0.+y);
#define S() fprintf(o,"S\n");

//fprintf(o,"4 4 scale -1860 20 translate 2 setlinecap 1 setlinejoin\n");
fprintf(o,"4 4 scale -1870 20 translate 2 setlinecap 1 setlinejoin\n");

M(1880, -10) L(1880,60) 
M(1890, -10) L(1890,60) 

M(1910, -10) L(1910,60) 
M(1920, -10) L(1920,60) 
M(1930, -10) L(1930,60) 
M(1940, -10) L(1940,60) 
M(1950, -10) L(1950,60) 
M(1960, -10) L(1960,60) 
M(1970, -10) L(1970,60) 
M(1980, -10) L(1980,60) 
M(1990, -10) L(1990,60) 
M(2010, -10) L(2010,60) 

M(2020, -10) L(2020,60) 
M(2030, -10) L(2030,60) 
M(2040, -10) L(2040,60) 
M(2050, -10) L(2050,60) 
M(2060, -10) L(2060,60) 
M(2070, -10) L(2070,60) 
M(2080, -10) L(2080,60) 
M(2090, -10) L(2090,60) 

M(1880, 50) L(2100,50)
M(1880, 30) L(2100,30)
M(1880, 10) L(2100,10)
M(1880,-10) L(2100,-10)

fprintf(o,"0.09 setlinewidth 0 .5 0 RGB S\n");

M(1900, -10) L(1900,60) 
M(2000, -10) L(2000,60) 
M(2100, -10) L(2100,60) 

M(1880, 60) L(2100,60)
M(1880, 40) L(2100,40)
M(1880, 20) L(2100,20)
M(1880, 0) L(2108,0)
//M(1880, -20) L(2050,-20)

fprintf(o,"0.12 setlinewidth 0 0 .4 RGB S\n");

fprintf(o,"%4d %4.0f M\n",1880,20*a[1880]);
for(y=1881;y<2024;y++) L(y,20*a[y])
fprintf(o,"0.4 setlinewidth .8 0 0 RGB S\n");

fprintf(o,"%4d %4.0f M\n",1880,20*f32(1880));
for(y=1881;y<2111;y++) L(y,20*f32(y))
fprintf(o,"0.44 setlinewidth 0 0 .8 RGB S\n");

fprintf(o,"showpage\n%c%cTrailer",'%','%'); fclose(o);
     system("epstopdf 3o.eps");
     system("open 3o.pdf");
}

Latex generator of labels

%File 3o.eps should be generated with the code above in order to Latex the generator below.

\documentclass{standalone}
\usepackage{graphicx}
\newcommand \sx {\scalebox}
\begin{document}
%\scalebox{2}[3]
\scalebox{1.2}
{
\begin{picture}(960,342)
%\put(-18,6){\scalebox{0.3793}[0.135]{\includegraphics{../NasaGlobalTemperature2024big.png}}}
\put(-2,-16){\includegraphics{3o.eps}}
\put(12,324){\sx{2.3}{mean temperature, degree Celsius}}
\put(17,298){\sx{2.4}{$3$}}
%\put(7,258){\sx{2.2}{$2.5$}}
\put(17,218){\sx{2.4}{$2$}}
%\put(7,178){\sx{2.2}{$1.5$}}
\put(17,138){\sx{2.4}{$1$}}
%\put(7,98){\sx{2.2}{$0.5$}}
\put(826,68){\sx{2.6}{time, years}}
\put(17,58){\sx{2.4}{$0$}}
%\put(-6, 19){\sx{2.2}{$-0.5$}}
\put(18,  2){\sx{2.3}{$1880$}}
\put(98,  2){\sx{2.3}{$1900$}}
\put(178,  2){\sx{2.3}{$1920$}}
\put(258,  2){\sx{2.3}{$1940$}}
%\put(300,  2){\sx{1.9}{$1950$}}
\put(338,  2){\sx{2.3}{$1960$}}
\put(418,  2){\sx{2.3}{$1980$}}
\put(499,  2){\sx{2.3}{$2000$}}
\put(579,  2){\sx{2.3}{$2020$}}
\put(659,  2){\sx{2.3}{$2040$}}
\put(739,  2){\sx{2.3}{$2060$}}
\put(819,  2){\sx{2.3}{$2080$}}
\put(899,  2){\sx{2.3}{$2100$}}
\end{picture}
\end{document}

Speculations

Since year 1990, many authors use to writhe about the global warning, providing no data (nor even link to these data) that would allow them to declare that the mean temperature at the Earth shows significant rise. That made the impression that all the bzz bout the global warming is just a fiction and misinformation.

In 2024, the data for some «average temperature» are observed at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt

Since that, the concept «Global warming» can be reconsidered. The loading of the primitive fitting above begins such a reconsideration.

A the scale of some tens years, the initial data look smooth; the temperature varies slowly.

The quadratic approximation shows good agreements; the parabola crosses the experimental red curve many times.

The increase of the «mean temperatire» can be interpreted in many ways. Some of them are mentioned below.

Observational selection

New meteorologic stations are installed in the tropical areas. There, the temperature is usually higher, than in the polar ares.

Sun and tectonics

Variation of liminosity of Sun and tectonic activity of the Earth cause smooth variations of temperature,

One may expect the temperature to remain higher than temperature of boiling of air at the atmospheriv pressure, but lower, that temperature of boiling of water.

wars

At the wars, a lot of staff burned; the ache covers the snow at winter and boost the melting.

Indeed,some humps are observed at the
World War I (1014),
World War II (1939),
Soiet invasion into Afghanistan (1979),
Chechen wars (1994,1999)
Russian invasion into Uraine (2014,2022)

However, these humps look not so significant,
and is is difficult to guess,
either the extra solar light provokes the aggression
or a war produces a lot of ache that reduces the reflectivity of snow at winter.

Alarmism

Several authors pretend that the mean temperature grows due to the industrialization of the human civilization.

Tha main claim are:
1. The reduction of consumption of coal, oil and gas may slow down the warning and prolong the agony of the Human civilization at hot Earth.
2. The activity of alarmists may help to reduce the consumption and therefore such an activity should be sponsored.

References

Keywords

«[[]]», «Global warming», «KandidKun», «Minimization», «[[]]»,