File:NasaGlobalTemperature2024compare.png

Analysis of the Global warming:

Comparison of data by NASA https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt

with the screenshot of the same site at https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/?intent=121

This screenshot is loaded as

Initial data

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt

Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)
--------------------------------

Year No_Smoothing  Lowess(5)
----------------------------
1880     -0.17     -0.10
1881     -0.09     -0.13
1882     -0.11     -0.17
1883     -0.18     -0.21
1884     -0.29     -0.24
1885     -0.34     -0.27
1886     -0.32     -0.28
1887     -0.37     -0.28
1888     -0.18     -0.27
1889     -0.11     -0.26
1890     -0.35     -0.26
1891     -0.23     -0.26
1892     -0.28     -0.27
1893     -0.31     -0.26
1894     -0.30     -0.24
1895     -0.23     -0.22
1896     -0.11     -0.20
1897     -0.11     -0.18
1898     -0.27     -0.17
1899     -0.17     -0.17
1900     -0.08     -0.20
1901     -0.15     -0.23
1902     -0.28     -0.26
1903     -0.37     -0.28
1904     -0.47     -0.31
1905     -0.26     -0.34
1906     -0.22     -0.36
1907     -0.39     -0.37
1908     -0.42     -0.39
1909     -0.48     -0.41
1910     -0.43     -0.41
1911     -0.44     -0.39
1912     -0.37     -0.35
1913     -0.35     -0.33
1914     -0.15     -0.31
1915     -0.14     -0.31
1916     -0.36     -0.30
1917     -0.46     -0.30
1918     -0.30     -0.30
1919     -0.28     -0.29
1920     -0.27     -0.28
1921     -0.19     -0.26
1922     -0.28     -0.25
1923     -0.26     -0.24
1924     -0.27     -0.23
1925     -0.22     -0.22
1926     -0.11     -0.22
1927     -0.22     -0.21
1928     -0.20     -0.20
1929     -0.36     -0.19
1930     -0.15     -0.19
1931     -0.09     -0.18
1932     -0.15     -0.17
1933     -0.28     -0.16
1934     -0.12     -0.15
1935     -0.19     -0.13
1936     -0.14     -0.10
1937     -0.02     -0.06
1938      0.00     -0.01
1939     -0.02      0.03
1940      0.13      0.07
1941      0.19      0.09
1942      0.07      0.11
1943      0.09      0.10
1944      0.20      0.07
1945      0.09      0.04
1946     -0.07      0.00
1947     -0.03     -0.04
1948     -0.11     -0.07
1949     -0.11     -0.08
1950     -0.17     -0.08
1951     -0.07     -0.07
1952      0.01     -0.07
1953      0.08     -0.07
1954     -0.13     -0.06
1955     -0.14     -0.06
1956     -0.19     -0.05
1957      0.05     -0.04
1958      0.06     -0.01
1959      0.03      0.01
1960     -0.03      0.03
1961      0.06      0.01
1962      0.03     -0.01
1963      0.05     -0.03
1964     -0.20     -0.04
1965     -0.11     -0.05
1966     -0.06     -0.06
1967     -0.02     -0.05
1968     -0.08     -0.03
1969      0.05     -0.02
1970      0.03     -0.00
1971     -0.08      0.00
1972      0.01      0.00
1973      0.16     -0.00
1974     -0.07      0.01
1975     -0.01      0.02
1976     -0.10      0.04
1977      0.18      0.07
1978      0.07      0.12
1979      0.16      0.16
1980      0.26      0.20
1981      0.32      0.21
1982      0.14      0.22
1983      0.31      0.21
1984      0.16      0.21
1985      0.12      0.22
1986      0.18      0.24
1987      0.32      0.27
1988      0.39      0.31
1989      0.27      0.33
1990      0.45      0.33
1991      0.41      0.33
1992      0.22      0.33
1993      0.23      0.33
1994      0.31      0.34
1995      0.45      0.37
1996      0.33      0.40
1997      0.46      0.42
1998      0.61      0.44
1999      0.38      0.47
2000      0.39      0.50
2001      0.54      0.52
2002      0.63      0.55
2003      0.62      0.58
2004      0.53      0.61
2005      0.68      0.62
2006      0.64      0.62
2007      0.66      0.63
2008      0.54      0.64
2009      0.66      0.64
2010      0.72      0.65
2011      0.61      0.66
2012      0.65      0.70
2013      0.67      0.74
2014      0.75      0.78
2015      0.90      0.83
2016      1.01      0.87
2017      0.92      0.91
2018      0.85      0.93
2019      0.98      0.93
2020      1.01      0.95
2021      0.85      0.97
2022      0.89      0.99
2023      1.17      1.01

C++ Generator of the red curve

#include <math.h>
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include "ado.cin"

int main(){ FILE *o; int M,m,N,n,r,Y,y; float g,h,a[2100],z;
o=fopen("01.txt","r");

for(m=0;m<240;m++)
{
r=fscanf(o,"%d%f%f",&y,&g,&h); if(r<3) break;
a[y]=g; //printf("%4d %5.2f %5.2f %5.2f\n",y,g,a[y],h);
}
fclose (o);

o=fopen("o.eps","w");
ado(o,750,120);
#define M(x,y) fprintf(o,"%6.2f %8.2f M\n",0.+x,0.+y);
#define L(x,y) fprintf(o,"%6.2f %8.2f L\n",0.+x,0.+y);
#define S() fprintf(o,"S\n");

//fprintf(o,"4 4 scale -1860 20 translate 2 setlinecap 1 setlinejoin\n");
fprintf(o,"4 4 scale -1870 10 translate 2 setlinecap 1 setlinejoin\n");

M(1880, -5) L(1880,15) 
M(1890, -5) L(1890,15) 

M(1910, -5) L(1910,15) 
M(1920, -5) L(1920,15) 
M(1930, -5) L(1930,15) 
M(1940, -5) L(1940,15) 
M(1950, -5) L(1950,15) 
M(1960, -5) L(1960,15) 
M(1970, -5) L(1970,15) 
M(1980, -5) L(1980,15) 
M(1990, -5) L(1990,15) 
M(2010, -5) L(2010,15) 

M(2020, -5) L(2020,15) 
M(2030, -5) L(2030,15) 
M(2040, -5) L(2040,15) 
M(2050, -5) L(2050,15) 

M(1880, 15) L(2050,15)
M(1880, 5) L(2050,5)
M(1880, -5) L(2050,-5)

fprintf(o,"0.05 setlinewidth 0 .4 0 RGB S\n");

M(1900, -5) L(1900,15) 
M(2000, -5) L(2000,15) 

//M(1880, 20) L(2050,20)
M(1880, 10) L(2050,10)
M(1880, 0) L(2050,0)
//M(1880, -10) L(2050,-10)

fprintf(o,"0.12 setlinewidth 0 0 .4 RGB S\n");

fprintf(o,"%4d %4.0f M\n",1880,10*a[1880]);
for(y=1881;y<2024;y++) L(y,10*a[y])

fprintf(o,"0.22 setlinewidth .8 0 0 RGB S\n");

fprintf(o,"showpage\n%c%cTrailer",'%','%'); fclose(o);
     system("epstopdf o.eps");
     system("open o.pdf");

Latex combiner (o3.tex)

\documentclass{standalone}
\usepackage{graphicx}
\begin{document}
%\begin{picture}(1692,1113)
\begin{picture}(1720,1124)
\put(0,0){\includegraphics{NasaGlobalTemperature2024big.png}}
\put(47,-172){\scalebox{2.64}[14.6]{\includegraphics{o.eps}}}
\end{picture}
\end{document}

Agreement

The qualitative agreement should be mentioned.

The deviation of values returned by the animation
from the text version of the data
is of order of 0.01 degree of Celsius.

There is no hint to guess, which data are more precise, those from the table or those from the animation.

Editor hopes, the deviation mentioned does not affect result of the analysis of the statistical significance of the forecast about the catastrophic warning.

References

Keywords

«Global warming»,