File:2021.12.05.rud.png

Discussion

The picture by Worldometer is compared with data by Owid ^[2] in picture at right. Data by Owid are shown with black curve.

The reasonable agreement takes place; the relative deviation is of order of one percent; it corresponds to the width of the orange line.
The growth seem to be a little bit faster than quadratic.

Number of patients dead of Covid in Russia can be approximated with function

\(F(T)=0.024 \, T^{5/2} \)

where \(T\) is time since 2020.02.15, measured in days.
This function is shown in figure at right with blue curve.

Let \( t=T/365.2425 \) be time measured in years; then

\( f(t)=F(T)=61188 \, T^{5/2} \)

After 16 years, the tall estimate becomes about of \(62288*4^5\approx 64*10^6\)

After 22 years, the tall estimate becomes about of \( 62288*22^{5/2} \approx 141*10^6 \)
that exceeds population of Russia.
In such a way, the extrapolation should become invalid before year 2042, mentioned in novel ^[3] by Vladimir Voinovich.

References