Reproduction coefficient

Reproduction coefficient may refer to various quanitties:

Reproduction of photons in a cavity with active medium,

Reproduction of electrons in photomultiplier or in a Geiger counter

multiplication of number of neutrons in nuclear reactor,

multiplication of number of patients due to transmittance of some decease,

etc.

In particular, term Reproduction coefficient is applied to spreading of infection Covid19. The same quantity is denoted also with term Rnumber (or R number). This number is average number of new patients, who get ill due to contact with one ill person.

Covid19

Sparse data on R

China

For Wuhan, 2020.01.24, R is estimated to range from 3.6 to 4

For China, since 2020.01.01 to 2020.02.07, R is estimated to range from 1.4 to 6.49, with mean 2.28

UK

2020.09.18, in the UK R coefficient is estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.4

Masks

     Efficiency of masks

Use of face masks is reported to reduce the coefficient R for one or two orders of magnitude.

Efficiency of medical mask is estiamted as

\(E = 1-R/R_0 \)
where
\(R_0\) is reproduction coefficient under condition, that the people do not use the face masks, and
\(R\) is the reproduction coefficient under condition, that all the people use masks in public places.

Various estimates for the efficiency are suggested in year 2020:

2020.04.19, intyroverts estimate of the efficiency to be 98.5%

2020.04.23, myupchar.com estimate of the efficiency to be 97% .

2020.05.04, nashaniva estimates the efficiency of masks almost 100% ("В масках вероятность заражения снижается до минимума") .

2020.05.04, Саулюс Чаплинскас estimates the efficiency of masks to be 98.5% .

2020.06.02, Rachael Rettner suggests the estimate of the efficiency 85% .

2020.06.04, Ирина Иванова estimates the efficiency of masks more than 90% (probability of transfer reduces tens times, "при ношении масок риск заразиться коронавирусом снижается в десятки раз") .

2020.07.21, don24 repeats the same estimate, more than 90%. .

The authors usually do not indicate, how did they got the estimates of efficiency of mask, but there is important exception:

2020.09.02, Emma Fischer et al describe measurements of penetration of aerosol particles tgrough various masks at talking :

Mask, name Description
1, “Surgical”* Surgical mask, three layers
2, “Valved N95” N95 mask with exhalation valve
3, “Knitted” Knitted mask
4, “PolyProp” Two-layer polypropylene apron mask
5, “Poly/cotton” Cotton-polypropylene-cotton mask
6, “MaxAT” One-layer Maxima AT mask
7, “Cotton2” Two-layer cotton, pleated style mask
8, “Cotton4” Two-layer cotton, Olson style mask
9, “Cotton3” Two-layer cotton, pleated style mask
10, “Cotton1” One-layer cotton, pleated style mask
11, “Neck Gaiter” One-layer polyester/spandex, 0.022 g/cm2
12, “Bandana”* Double-layer bandana, 0.014 g/cm2
13, “Cotton5”* Two-layer cotton, pleated style mask
14, “Fitted N95” N95 mask, no exhalation valve, fitted
“Swath” Swath of mask material, polypropylene
“None”* Control experiment, no mask

Assuming, that the aerosol is dominant mechanism of transmittance of the infection, the penetration coefficients approximates ratio \(R/R_0\) for each kind of mask. Roughly, the results by Fischer confirm the estimates above:

The medical face masks reduce amount of aerosol particles, spread by a patient, for an order of magnitude.

Second wave of covid19

Screenshot of the second wave of Covid19, number of daily new cases at UK in 2020

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According to the estimates of the efficiency of masks, since the mass use of the face masks, the reproduction coefficient of Covid19 should be significantly below unity.
Since the 2020 spring, almost 100% of people wear masks in the public places.
So, the pandemic is supposed to decay exponentially.
Then, the "second wave" of Covid19 cannot be attributed to the unwanted transfer of the infection from ill pacients to new victims.

The reasonable hypothesis explains the "second wave" as manifestation of the total hybrid Putin world war of the Russian officials against the Human civilization.

Under condition of total corruption of the top Russian officials, there are no mechanisms that would prevent them from using of bioweapon in this war; the aliases of the Russian usurper, like Boshirov and Petrov, intentionally spread the infection, in the same way, as they apply unstable nuclei of Po-210 or poison novichok for murdering.

This concept shows good agreement with reports about use of the Russian diplomatic post for contraband. Centners of cocaine, Po-210, Novichok, highly pure biopreparate and other weapon of mass murdering can be smuggled with the Russian diplomatic post.

The Pasechick institute and GNC Vektor are reported to manufacture bioweapon. These facilities are located in Russia. So, the intentional spreading of infection by the Russian terrorists appears as natural and reasonable hypothesis. This hypothesis shows good agreement with other evidences of terroristic activity of the Russian proxies. After to shout down the civil airplanes (see Katyn-2, MH17), to use the nuclear weapon (see Putin kiled Litvinenko), to use the chemical weapon (See 2018.03.04.Теракт, in Russian), one could expect, that the Russian terrorists will use the bioweapon too. It could be delivered with the diplomatic post; use of the Russian diplomatic post for contraband is also reported (see Кокаин в диппочте, in Russian).

Carriers of the Russian diplomatic passports appear as the main suspects in the terroristic attack on all the countries. The attack with bioweapon perfectly fits the general concept of the hybrid war. Within this concept, the civilized countries should consider ways to resist: search well the Russian diplomatic post and detend, interrogate the Russian officials, especially carriers of the diplomatic passports, as the primary suspects.

Keywords

Bioweapon, Corruption, Coronavirus, Covid19, Dippa, Boshirov and Petrov, Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism, Putin world war, Terror

ГНЦ Вектор, Институт Пасечника, Кокаин в диппочте, Коррупция, Новичок, Путинская мировая война,

Bioweapon,