Mystic weakness

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Mystic weakness is extraction from the sci-fi novel Alien in a foreign sea 1
about Neganezia by Aleksandr Rozov (Розов Александр Александрович)
The novel in Russian appears in 2009, and the "near future" is described.
So, the article may refer to years, roughly, 2030-2100.

In the novel, Russia already does not exist.
The events described may refer to the epoch soon since the collapse of RF.

The «Mystic weakness» is important for the analysis of historic events and elaboration of historic models.

Some statements by Rozov get confirmation during the Putin world war; in particular, sine the Russian invasion into Ukraine (year 2014) and, especially, since the beginning of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war (since 2023.02.24, see «Спецоперация»).
The pictures (except the first one) are added later and refer to that war.

Bayraktar, 2019 - 2022

Mystic weakness by Sam Hopkins

Ordinary citizens of developed countries live in complete ignorance of how ineptly they spend huge foundation allocated to the military programs and how defenseless their countries will be in a military conflict with a cruel and pragmatic enemy.

Take for starters such an important part of the armed forces as the navy.

In the mid-1980s, Douglas Lenat developed the EURISCO expert system, which could use human knowledge of practical sense (so-called heuristics) and generate its own new heuristics, improving the experience of solving problems. Among the episodes related to EURISCO, there was this: in the staff game simulating a military conflict at sea, it was required to determine the optimal composition of the flotilla. The expert system chose only small ships capable of conducting a quick attack and very small ultra-high-speed vessels. This approach ran counter to the fundamentals of military theory, but the EURISCO flotilla over and over again for three years won in virtual battles flotillas, compiled according to the usual principles. The vexed organisers of the game tried to prevent this, changing the rules. EURISCO responded with a minor change in the parameters of its flotilla, and again won. The conclusion was that the principles on which the fleet was traditionally organised today serves to nothing.

The piquancy of the situation was also in the fact, that the flotilla in the style of EURISCO (be it built realistically and not virtually) would cost of order of one percent of price of the traditionally organised flotillas, that it won in the staff games. The American and British press began to leak some data about the scandalous game. The newspapers published articles with unambiguous allusions to the fact that the military budget should be reduced by an order of magnitude, or even more. There was a real threat that a lot of serious guys in the military-industrial complex would be removed from the feeder. In the face of this obvious threat, the allied military headquarters of the alliance decided to stop the virtual military games with EURISCO, to abandon the expert system itself to the civilian sphere, and to delete the data on scandalous games, - those, that have not yet been published.

The military-industrial complex continues to build floating dinosaurs (each - for a billion dollars), that can only turn out the pockets of taxpayers, and in a sea battle will be ineffective against much smaller, technological and high-speed warships which cost less than a million dollars apiece.

Similar, but even more dramatic wasting is observed in military aviation. Modern jet attack aircrafts and fighter planes cost ftpom 10 to 20 million dollars each, and at least a billion is spent on developing the next (even more expensive) model. In support of these exorbitant prices, the taxpayer is told tales of some super effective tracking and controlling computers, which are crammed with such aircraft. But these are the same computer systems used in ordinary civil (and even everyday) technology. Their price nowhere exceeds 10 thousand dollars. As for the jet machines themselves, the estimate for their construction, as proved by the amateurs, can be reduced to 50 thousand. Even the price of light business jet jets (comfortable, safe, extremely automated and very simple to manage) is only a million dollars.

But the main thing here is not even that the taxpayer cheats with prices 20 times, at least. The main thing: for a combat aircraft operating at speeds of 3 or more times higher than the speed of sound, the time for making decisions drops to hundredths of a second, the pilot in the cabin is a burden, a piece of useless and fragile protoplasm. For the sake of accommodation of the pilot, the designers sacrifice the compactness of the machine. In addition, in order to prevent this protoplasm from becoming a steak, it is necessary to abandon a number of extremely effective maneuvers simply because the acceleration in the bends exceeds 10g. During the demonstration of the Australian Steal-Storm system, it was convincingly shown that a compact and cheap unmanned vehicle, due to its maneuverability, would destroy in the air a manned military aircraft of price of 20 million dollars in 20 seconds: it would be simply shoot out by a high-performance machine gun from a short distance. Due to the limited acceleration of maneuver, the manned plane is difficult to escape from the attack of a very cheap missile launched from the shoulder and guided by thermal radiation.

What is the point in an expensive combat aircraft, while it is practically defenseless against a thousand times cheaper devices? What is the sense if, in addition, each take-off of this aircraft costs a hundred times more, than all the targets, that it could potentially destroy?

A few years ago, the whole world got around the caricature. In the photo, the F-119 attack aircraft strikes an East African pirate with an air-to-sea missile. Next to each object (attack aircraft, missile and boat) are the prices, and below the question: Who won?

Let us rise even higher. The space fleet (if the shameful show of technical absurdity that state corporations arrange in space, can be denoted with the beautiful word "fleet") is the most mediocre economic project in history, since the time of the pyramid of Cheops. At the end of the XX century, the X-prize fund announced a competition for a private space shuttle, and in just 7 years there were 23 aircraft projects of this class, each of which was an order of magnitude simpler and more reliable, and two or three orders of magnitude cheaper in construction and operation than any of NASA's Space Shuttle. Competition won SpaceShipOne company Barta Rutana. It seemed that now everything would fall into place, and the shuttles would be built for reasonable projects, for commensurate money. But nothing of the kind. State aerospace agencies have a different logic. For them, the rapid achievement of goals for small money - this is pure ruin. It is more profitable for them to blast billions for new replicas of German missiles, which Werner von Braun came up with in 1943 to satisfy the unwholesome ambitions of Adolf Hitler.

Let's return from heaven to earth, to the technique of war. The most striking example of the dementia of the military policy of the developed countries is the attitude towards nuclear weapons and measures of protection against it. If you count in dollars per unit of destruction, nuclear weapons are fabulously cheap. It did not supersede other types of heavy weapons only because of cultic reasons. After the application of two A-bombs of 13 and 22 kilotons of TNT in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, a global god-bomb cult emerged. In the era of the Cold War, the use of bombs of 10 megatons of TNT in the densely populated areas (purely religious, devoid of military meaning) was advertised. This led to nucleophobia (the irrational horror of the population of the so-called West before the A-bomb and generally the energy of the atomic nucleus).

In 1955 - 1995, many promising models of A-bombs with a capacity of 0.1-10 kt of TNT were developed, but none of them was used (although the A-bomb owners participated in this period in hundreds of local wars). All practical considerations were swept aside by the cult fear of the A-bomb, and instead of the A-bomb, much more expensive non-nuclear warheads were used. The cult attitude to the A-bomb was also expressed in the neglect of cheap means of delivery. At the beginning of the 21st century, not a single one of them went to the series from a whole series of the A-bomb projects delivered to the goal by cheap planning mines or short-range missiles. In the late XX - early XXI century, only A-bombs of high power (0.1 - 10 megaton TNT) are mass produced, delivered by extra-expensive ballistic and cruise missiles.

In the field of anti-atomic defence, by the beginning of the XXI century, all the systems are focused on intercepting of just such a pair, bomb-carriers. The cult motifs clearly dominate practical considerations. Even the developers of defence systems (not to mention politicians and voters) do not believe that the "weapons of the apocalypse" - rockets with megaton ammunition - will ever be practically used. The industry of means of nuclear attack and defence became a simple machine for dividing the budget money of developed countries. In the meantime, nuclear technology is rapidly becoming cheaper. At the beginning of the 21st century, obtaining low-power A-charge is no longer a particularly difficult problem, and the control over the spread of these technologies and fissile materials suitable for the production of A bombs has long been lost irrevocably by the "atomic club of great powers."

Now imagine an A-bomb of the order of 1 kiloton of TNT, which is delivered to the target by a very simple and cheap small-sized carrier. Even if this carrier is at a technical level half a century old, none of the modern super-expensive protective systems can effectively stop it. It simply is not designed to combat such primitive devices, it does not see them. A developed country, attacked by such a weapon, is doomed to failure, not so much due to the ineffectiveness of the available technical protection, but because of psychological factors. Real destruction from A-bomb of a 1 kiloton is not so terrible. In 1944, London was bombed by 2,000 FAU-2 missiles, which in total carried almost 2 kilotons of explosives, and hit not one but different points of the city. As you know, this did not have fatal consequences. On the other hand, the bombing of Tokyo on March 10, 1945 with conventional incendiary bombs caused the death of more than 100,000 people - the same order as the atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6 (even taking into account the victims of radiation that died before 31.12.1945). In the West, only historians remember that bombing of Tokyo, and everyone knows about the explosion of the 13-kiloton A-bomb in Hiroshima (the bomb's capacity for cultic reasons is rounded to 20 kilotons, and the blast is blown to a world catastrophe more horrible than the Second World War itself).

From this excursion into history (more precisely, into the modern interpretation of history), it is clear that the society in the so-called. "Developed countries" perceive the A-bomb not as a weapon (comparable in destructive power with other means of warfare), but as an all-destroying divine wrath that is not measured in numbers. The decisive factor in the defeat of a typical developed western country in a possible conflict with a technically weaker (but more practice) enemy would be a volitional unpreparedness to fight against the God-bomb, i.e. against a phenomenon to which socio-political myth attributed not physical, but supernatural destructive power.

Gallery

Warning

The sci-fiction presented is loaded here with the scientific goals.

In the Utopia, the collapse of RF is already happened, but the loading of the fragment should not be considered as an appeal to destruct all Russian military bases with high-energy devices, delivered by small "invisible" autonomous drones.

Since 2022.02.20, the Budapest memorandum is broken by the Russian administration, and, therefore, such an extermination of Russia would not violate any international agreement, but just transfer of the battle action to the territory of the aggressor country, see Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism, in order to finish the putin war against the Human civilization.
From scientific point of view, it would be better to keep the Russian military offees alive and to bring them to the international court (see Hague and Nuremberg-2): their testimonies should be important for the analysis of events of century 21. On the other hand, the Editor is not supposed to teach the professionals, how to handle the Russian aggression, especially, since 2022.02.24 (beginning of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war).
The TORI Aximos give no answer on questions, that kind of weapon should be used to stop the aggressor. This topic is considered in article «I bombed Dresden».

Loading of this translation is not an attempt to prolong the agony of the putin's Russia.
Loading of this translation is not an attempt to boost the collapse of RF.
The Editor is not supposed to give advises to the Anti-Putin coalition, how to defeat the aggressor in a most efficient and intelligent way.
The Budapest memorandum does not apply any restriction on methods that may (and should) be used against the country that had signed that memorandum bur brutally violate its conditions.
In this sense, any weapon may be applied against the aggressor.
Some opinions on the topic are collected in article «I bombed Dresden».

The honest use is assumed; at the reuse, attribute the author(s) and indicate the source.

However, the Editor keeps his right to call things by their proper names (Называть вещи своими именами) , as well, as his right to consider various models (see, for ex., Kestus) and compare their forecasts to observable phenomena (in particular, to the observable publications).

References

http://www.proza.ru/avtor/rozoff (source, 2018)

2019.05.21. https://www.rt.com/russia/official-word/459867-terrorist-drone-chemical-weapons/ Terrorists can use drones to deliver chemical weapons, head of Russian security services warns. 21 May, 2019 08:45. .. New intelligence has emerged showing that terrorists are trying new means and methods to carry out attacks, FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov told his counterparts at the CIS security services conference in Tajikistan’s capital Dushanbe on Tuesday. ..

2019.10.16. https://www.rbc.ru/society/16/10/2019/5da6cae79a7947061bc51e6c Общество, 16 окт,10:56. Бортников заявил об угрозе атак террористов «автономными роями дронов».

2019.10.16. https://www.msn.com/ru-ru/news/russia/бортников-заявил-об-угрозе-атак-террористов-«автономными-роями-дронов»/ar-AAIRiRi Наталия Анисимова. Бортников заявил об угрозе атак террористов «автономными роями дронов»

2020.03.05. https://echo.msk.ru/news/2599758-echo.html 09:30, 05 марта 2020. В военной части под Мурманском произошел взрыв. Пострадали 5 человек. В пресс-службе Северного флота заявляют, что сработал взрывпакет, однако Телеграм-канал «База» утверждает, что пострадали 6 человек, причем взорвался беспилотник, который прилетел в военную часть. Что это был за аппарат, каким образом он оказался в части и почему взорвался, неясно.

2020.03.10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjYQY04fd-E 3:37 / 39:22 #Донбасс #Украина #дроны// ДОНБАСС. ОТВЕТ В ТУРЕЦКОМ СТИЛЕ. Mar 10, 2020. Sasha Sotnik #Донбасс #Украина #дроны// Около года назад Украина приобрела у Турции те самые дроны, которые в феврале-марте 2020-го за неделю переломили ход войны в Сирии. Могут ли украинские военные воспользоваться турецким опытом ведения войны? Об этом рассказал политолог Юрием Шулипа. Смотрите интервью на канале Sotnik-TV. Журналист – Александр Кушнарь

2020.06.05. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52933958 Combat drone to compete against piloted plane By Paul Rincon Science editor, BBC News website Publishe // d5 June 2020 // The XQ-58A Valkyrie is one example of a combat drone aircraft. It is not known which planes will be used in the test The US Air Force will pit an advanced autonomous aircraft against a piloted plane in a challenge set for July 2021.

2022.03.12. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/03/12/world/ukraine-russia-drones/ DAVE PHILIPPS AND ERIC SCHMITT. Over Ukraine, lumbering Turkish-made drones are an ominous sign for Russia. THE NEW YORK TIMES, Mar 12, 2022

2023.08.05. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLhJ1hiQGVE Подводные дроны - конец эры военных кораблей. Приговор Навальному. Гибридные атаки и фронт. Yulia Latynina #украина #латынинатв #latynina Конец эры военных кораблей. Приговор Навальному. Любая гибридная атака - знак того, что на фронте все идет не сладко. Это попытка открыть новый фронт заведомо негодными средствами, выбравшись из позиционного тупика. Путин не умеет созлавать, но он мастер гадить. 00:00 – Начало 00:31 – Атаки дронов в Черном море 07:12 – Коренной перелом в военной логистике 11:02 – Зерновая сделка и морской фронт 13:39 – Последствия лжи на войне 16:45 – 19 лет Навальному 20:53 – Дело Ирины Навальной и машина репрессий 23:10 – Дроны в Москве 25:43 – Посредничество ради посредничества 26:55 – Поджоги военкоматов 29:29 – Переворот в Нигерии и судьба Африки 35:34 – Китайское экономическое чудо. Почему Путин не может так же? 40:37 – Заморозка конфликта кажется все более реальной 48:03 – Чего добился Путин? 55:36 – Конец

2023.08.20. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMCO3Fi6eAk ウクライナの水上ドローン、ロシアの標的攻撃に効果　その影響は BBC News Japan Aug 20, 2023 ウクライナのウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー大統領は、ウクライナ軍が使う水上ドローン（無人機）のことを、「前線でのウクライナの目と守り」と呼んでいる。 ウクライナはこれまでに黒海で水上ドローンを使い、ロシアの艦船や主要輸送路のケルチ大橋を効果的に攻撃してきた。 ウクライナだけでなくロシアも、攻撃や偵察に水上ドローンを精力的に使い始めており、その重要性は増しつつある。 BBCのフランク・ガードナー安全保障担当編集委員と、BBCヴェリファイ（検証）チームが、この戦争における水上ドローンの影響力を検討する。 プロデューサー：ソラヤ・アウアー モーショングラフィックス：ジャクリーン・ガルヴィン 検証：トム・スペンサー、ポール・ブラウン、エマ・ペンゲリー、リチャード・アーヴィン＝ブラウン BBCニュースサイトの記事はこちら。

2023.12.11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdhHwpysal0 Реалистичный план победы Украины | Воевать и погибать должны, в основном, беспилотные системы Ivan Yakovina Dec 11, 2023

2024.02.04. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpOamtWEuoo Танки, Флот та Десант - вчорашній день? Як війна в Україні змінила військову справу | WAS Feb 4, 2024 #дрон #війна #was Чому російсько-українська війна така важлива для сучасної військової думки, чому за нею стежать у генеральних штабах різних країн? Вона показує сучасні тенденції конфліктів між двома країнами приблизно одного технологічного рівня: протикорабельні ракети та морські дрони роблять неефективним великий флот, ППО не пускає бойові літаки близько до фронту, десантні операції з моря та неба майже неможливі, а FPV-дрони роблять вкрай ризикованою справою рух великих колон бронетехніки. Про все це ми говоримо в новому випуску.

Keywords

«Aleksandr Rozov», «Alien in a foreign sea 1», «Art», «Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism», «Designate Russia as terrorist state», «Kestus», «Meganesia», «Meganezia», «Mystic weakness», «Nuclear weapon», «[[]]», «Putin world war», «Rozov Aleksandr Aleksandrovich», «Russki mir», «Stop Putin»,

«Будапештский меморандум», «Меганезия», «Остов Крым», «Розов Александр Александрович», «Русский мир», «Семидесятый меридиан», «Фантастика»,