Difference between revisions of "File:USAtemprtatureFit12.png"

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  +
Average temperature in the USA by www.ncdc.noaa.gov
  +
<ref>
  +
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/time-series/110/tavg/12/12/1900-2020?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000 Climate at a Glance (2020) National Time Series Choose from the options below and click "Plot" to create a time series graph. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) are not offered for multiple-month time scales. Display Base Period Start: End: Display Trend per Decade per Century Start: End: Smoothed Time Series Binomial Filter LOESS Filter Parameter: Time Scale: Month: Start Year: End Year:
  +
</ref>
  +
for years 1990 - 2019 and the two extrapolations, linear (red) and quadratic (blue).
  +
  +
Abscissas: [[time]], measured in years since birthday of [[Jesus Nazaretski]]
  +
  +
Ordinates: mean temperature of air near the ground at the USA, measured in
  +
[[scale of Fahrenheit]].
  +
==Input file 00.txt==
  +
  +
<poem>
  +
201901 - 201912 52.68°F 92 0.66°F
  +
201801 - 201812 53.52°F 112 1.50°F
  +
201701 - 201712 54.55°F 123 2.53°F
  +
201601 - 201612 54.92°F 124 2.90°F
  +
201501 - 201512 54.40°F 122 2.38°F
  +
201401 - 201412 52.54°F 86 0.52°F
  +
201301 - 201312 52.43°F 84 0.41°F
  +
201201 - 201212 55.28°F 125 3.26°F
  +
201101 - 201112 53.18°F 102 1.16°F
  +
201001 - 201012 52.98°F 96 0.96°F
  +
200901 - 200912 52.39°F 82 0.37°F
  +
200801 - 200812 52.29°F 79 0.27°F
  +
200701 - 200712 53.65°F 115 1.63°F
  +
200601 - 200612 54.25°F 121 2.23°F
  +
200501 - 200512 53.64°F 114 1.62°F
  +
200401 - 200412 53.10°F 98 1.08°F
  +
200301 - 200312 53.26°F 105 1.24°F
  +
200201 - 200212 53.21°F 103 1.19°F
  +
200101 - 200112 53.69°F 116 1.67°F
  +
200001 - 200012 53.27°F 106 1.25°F
  +
199901 - 199912 53.88°F 118 1.86°F
  +
199801 - 199812 54.23°F 120 2.21°F
  +
199701 - 199712 52.20°F 74 0.18°F
  +
199601 - 199612 51.88°F 53 -0.14°F
  +
199501 - 199512 52.65°F 90 0.63°F
  +
199401 - 199412 52.87°F 94 0.85°F
  +
199301 - 199312 51.26°F 15 -0.76°F
  +
199201 - 199212 52.60°F 88 0.58°F
  +
199101 - 199112 53.16°F 100 1.14°F
  +
199001 - 199012 53.51°F 111 1.49°F
  +
198901 - 198912 51.84°F 47 -0.18°F
  +
198801 - 198812 52.63°F 89 0.61°F
  +
198701 - 198712 53.33°F 109 1.31°F
  +
198601 - 198612 53.32°F 107 1.30°F
  +
198501 - 198512 51.30°F 16 -0.72°F
  +
198401 - 198412 51.97°F 62 -0.05°F
  +
198301 - 198312 51.88°F 53 -0.14°F
  +
198201 - 198212 51.34°F 18 -0.68°F
  +
198101 - 198112 53.12°F 99 1.10°F
  +
198001 - 198012 52.39°F 82 0.37°F
  +
197901 - 197912 50.88°F 8 -1.14°F
  +
197801 - 197812 51.04°F 11 -0.98°F
  +
197701 - 197712 52.55°F 87 0.53°F
  +
197601 - 197612 51.47°F 25 -0.55°F
  +
197501 - 197512 51.50°F 28 -0.52°F
  +
197401 - 197412 52.26°F 76 0.24°F
  +
197301 - 197312 52.29°F 79 0.27°F
  +
197201 - 197212 51.37°F 19 -0.65°F
  +
197101 - 197112 51.66°F 38 -0.36°F
  +
197001 - 197012 51.61°F 35 -0.41°F
  +
196901 - 196912 51.50°F 28 -0.52°F
  +
196801 - 196812 51.32°F 17 -0.70°F
  +
196701 - 196712 51.76°F 45 -0.26°F
  +
196601 - 196612 51.49°F 27 -0.53°F
  +
196501 - 196512 51.69°F 40 -0.33°F
  +
196401 - 196412 51.67°F 39 -0.35°F
  +
196301 - 196312 52.26°F 76 0.24°F
  +
196201 - 196212 51.90°F 56 -0.12°F
  +
196101 - 196112 51.87°F 50 -0.15°F
  +
196001 - 196012 51.44°F 23 -0.58°F
  +
195901 - 195912 52.10°F 71 0.08°F
  +
195801 - 195812 51.93°F 60 -0.09°F
  +
195701 - 195712 52.04°F 68 0.02°F
  +
195601 - 195612 52.34°F 80 0.32°F
  +
195501 - 195512 51.69°F 40 -0.33°F
  +
195401 - 195412 53.33°F 109 1.31°F
  +
195301 - 195312 53.37°F 110 1.35°F
  +
195201 - 195212 52.27°F 77 0.25°F
  +
195101 - 195112 51.12°F 13 -0.90°F
  +
195001 - 195012 51.39°F 20 -0.63°F
  +
194901 - 194912 52.02°F 65 0.00°F
  +
194801 - 194812 51.61°F 35 -0.41°F
  +
194701 - 194712 51.92°F 58 -0.10°F
  +
194601 - 194612 52.95°F 95 0.93°F
  +
194501 - 194512 51.75°F 44 -0.27°F
  +
194401 - 194412 51.83°F 46 -0.19°F
  +
194301 - 194312 52.07°F 69 0.05°F
  +
194201 - 194212 51.84°F 47 -0.18°F
  +
194101 - 194112 52.66°F 91 0.64°F
  +
194001 - 194012 51.89°F 55 -0.13°F
  +
193901 - 193912 53.26°F 105 1.24°F
  +
193801 - 193812 53.18°F 102 1.16°F
  +
193701 - 193712 51.55°F 31 -0.47°F
  +
193601 - 193612 52.15°F 73 0.13°F
  +
193501 - 193512 51.90°F 56 -0.12°F
  +
193401 - 193412 54.10°F 119 2.08°F
  +
193301 - 193312 52.99°F 97 0.97°F
  +
193201 - 193212 51.73°F 42 -0.29°F
  +
193101 - 193112 53.54°F 113 1.52°F
  +
193001 - 193012 51.98°F 63 -0.04°F
  +
192901 - 192912 50.85°F 6 -1.17°F
  +
192801 - 192812 51.92°F 58 -0.10°F
  +
192701 - 192712 52.15°F 73 0.13°F
  +
192601 - 192612 51.95°F 61 -0.07°F
  +
192501 - 192512 52.52°F 85 0.50°F
  +
192401 - 192412 50.59°F 4 -1.43°F
  +
192301 - 192312 51.64°F 37 -0.38°F
  +
192201 - 192212 52.03°F 67 0.01°F
  +
192101 - 192112 53.80°F 117 1.78°F
  +
192001 - 192012 51.07°F 12 -0.95°F
  +
191901 - 191912 51.55°F 31 -0.47°F
  +
191801 - 191812 51.87°F 50 -0.15°F
  +
191701 - 191712 50.06°F 1 -1.96°F
  +
191601 - 191612 50.85°F 6 -1.17°F
  +
191501 - 191512 51.45°F 24 -0.57°F
  +
191401 - 191412 51.84°F 47 -0.18°F
  +
191301 - 191312 51.54°F 30 -0.48°F
  +
191201 - 191212 50.23°F 2 -1.79°F
  +
191101 - 191112 52.03°F 67 0.01°F
  +
191001 - 191012 52.42°F 83 0.40°F
  +
190901 - 190912 51.43°F 21 -0.59°F
  +
190801 - 190812 52.08°F 70 0.06°F
  +
190701 - 190712 51.48°F 26 -0.54°F
  +
190601 - 190612 51.73°F 42 -0.29°F
  +
190501 - 190512 51.00°F 9 -1.02°F
  +
190401 - 190412 51.16°F 14 -0.86°F
  +
190301 - 190312 50.62°F 5 -1.40°F
  +
190201 - 190212 51.59°F 34 -0.43°F
  +
190101 - 190112 51.87°F 50 -0.15°F
  +
190001 - 190012 52.77°F 93 0.75°F
  +
189901 - 189912 51.01°F 10 -1.01°F
  +
189801 - 189812 51.43°F 21 -0.59°F
  +
189701 - 189712 51.56°F 33 -0.46°F
  +
189601 - 189612 51.99°F 64 -0.03°F
  +
189501 - 189512 50.34°F 3 -1.68°F
  +
</poem>
  +
  +
==[[Mathematica]] Generator of image==
  +
<poem>
  +
inp = Import["00.txt", "Table"];
  +
  +
L = Length[inp]
  +
  +
inta = Table[{(Extract[Extract[inp, L - n + 1], 1] - 1)/100,
  +
10 FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 1]] +
  +
FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 2]] +
  +
.1 FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 4]] +
  +
.01 FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 5]]}, {n, 1, L}]
  +
  +
tab1900 = Table[Extract[inta, n], {n, 6, L}]
  +
  +
lit1900j =
  +
ListPlot[tab1900, AspectRatio -> .3, Joined -> True,
  +
PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[.3, .3, 0], Thickness -> .002},
  +
GridLines -> {Table[1900 + 10 n, {n, 0, 12}], {50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55}}, PlotRange -> {{1899.9, 2020}, {50.01, 55.4}}]
  +
  +
lit1900 =
  +
ListPlot[tab1900, AspectRatio -> .3,
  +
PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[.3, .3, 0], PointSize[.006]},
  +
GridLines -> {Table[1900 + 10 n, {n, 0, 12}], {50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55}}, PlotRange -> {{1899.8, 2020}, {50.01, 55.4}}]
  +
  +
Show1 = Show[lit1900, lit1900j]
  +
  +
Export["USAtemperature1900-2019.png", Show1]
  +
  +
tab1990 = Table[Extract[inta, n], {n, 96, L}]
  +
  +
f1[x_] = a + b x; ff1 = FindFit[tab1990, f1[t], {a, b}, t]
  +
  +
lit1990b =
  +
ListPlot[tab1990, AspectRatio -> .3,
  +
PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[0, 0, 0], PointSize[.01]},
  +
GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55}},
  +
PlotRange -> {{1989.8, 2030}, {50.01, 55.4}}]
  +
  +
lit1990jb =
  +
ListPlot[tab1990, AspectRatio -> .3, Joined -> True,
  +
PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[0, 0, 0], Thickness -> .002},
  +
GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55}},
  +
PlotRange -> {{1989.9, 2020}, {51.01, 55.4}}]
  +
  +
p1990b = Show[lit1990b, lit1990jb]
  +
  +
f1[x_] = a + b x; ff1 = FindFit[tab1990, f1[t], {a, b}, t]
  +
g1[x_] = ReplaceAll[f1[x], ff1]
  +
  +
f2[x_] = a + b x + c x^2; ff2 = FindFit[tab1990, f2[t], {a, b, c}, t];
  +
g2[x_] = ReplaceAll[f2[x], ff2]
  +
  +
p2 = Plot[{g1[t], g2[t]}, {t, 1990, 2040},
  +
PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[1, 0, 0], RGBColor[0, 0, 1]},
  +
AspectRatio -> .3,
  +
GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55,
  +
56}}, PlotRange -> {{1990, 2030}, {51, 56}}]
  +
  +
s12 = Show[p2, p1990a, PlotRange -> {{1990, 2040}, {51, 55.4}},
  +
GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55}}]
  +
  +
Export["USAtemprtatureFit12.png", s12]
  +
</poem>
  +
  +
==References==
  +
<references/>
  +
  +
[[Category:Explicit plot]]
  +
[[Category:Extrapolation]]
  +
[[Category:Global warming]]
  +
[[Category:History]]
  +
[[Category:Linear fitting]]
  +
[[Category:Mathematica]]
  +
[[Category:Primary data]]
  +
[[Category:USA]]

Latest revision as of 23:25, 23 September 2020

Average temperature in the USA by www.ncdc.noaa.gov [1] for years 1990 - 2019 and the two extrapolations, linear (red) and quadratic (blue).

Abscissas: time, measured in years since birthday of Jesus Nazaretski

Ordinates: mean temperature of air near the ground at the USA, measured in scale of Fahrenheit.

Input file 00.txt

201901 - 201912 52.68°F 92 0.66°F
201801 - 201812 53.52°F 112 1.50°F
201701 - 201712 54.55°F 123 2.53°F
201601 - 201612 54.92°F 124 2.90°F
201501 - 201512 54.40°F 122 2.38°F
201401 - 201412 52.54°F 86 0.52°F
201301 - 201312 52.43°F 84 0.41°F
201201 - 201212 55.28°F 125 3.26°F
201101 - 201112 53.18°F 102 1.16°F
201001 - 201012 52.98°F 96 0.96°F
200901 - 200912 52.39°F 82 0.37°F
200801 - 200812 52.29°F 79 0.27°F
200701 - 200712 53.65°F 115 1.63°F
200601 - 200612 54.25°F 121 2.23°F
200501 - 200512 53.64°F 114 1.62°F
200401 - 200412 53.10°F 98 1.08°F
200301 - 200312 53.26°F 105 1.24°F
200201 - 200212 53.21°F 103 1.19°F
200101 - 200112 53.69°F 116 1.67°F
200001 - 200012 53.27°F 106 1.25°F
199901 - 199912 53.88°F 118 1.86°F
199801 - 199812 54.23°F 120 2.21°F
199701 - 199712 52.20°F 74 0.18°F
199601 - 199612 51.88°F 53 -0.14°F
199501 - 199512 52.65°F 90 0.63°F
199401 - 199412 52.87°F 94 0.85°F
199301 - 199312 51.26°F 15 -0.76°F
199201 - 199212 52.60°F 88 0.58°F
199101 - 199112 53.16°F 100 1.14°F
199001 - 199012 53.51°F 111 1.49°F
198901 - 198912 51.84°F 47 -0.18°F
198801 - 198812 52.63°F 89 0.61°F
198701 - 198712 53.33°F 109 1.31°F
198601 - 198612 53.32°F 107 1.30°F
198501 - 198512 51.30°F 16 -0.72°F
198401 - 198412 51.97°F 62 -0.05°F
198301 - 198312 51.88°F 53 -0.14°F
198201 - 198212 51.34°F 18 -0.68°F
198101 - 198112 53.12°F 99 1.10°F
198001 - 198012 52.39°F 82 0.37°F
197901 - 197912 50.88°F 8 -1.14°F
197801 - 197812 51.04°F 11 -0.98°F
197701 - 197712 52.55°F 87 0.53°F
197601 - 197612 51.47°F 25 -0.55°F
197501 - 197512 51.50°F 28 -0.52°F
197401 - 197412 52.26°F 76 0.24°F
197301 - 197312 52.29°F 79 0.27°F
197201 - 197212 51.37°F 19 -0.65°F
197101 - 197112 51.66°F 38 -0.36°F
197001 - 197012 51.61°F 35 -0.41°F
196901 - 196912 51.50°F 28 -0.52°F
196801 - 196812 51.32°F 17 -0.70°F
196701 - 196712 51.76°F 45 -0.26°F
196601 - 196612 51.49°F 27 -0.53°F
196501 - 196512 51.69°F 40 -0.33°F
196401 - 196412 51.67°F 39 -0.35°F
196301 - 196312 52.26°F 76 0.24°F
196201 - 196212 51.90°F 56 -0.12°F
196101 - 196112 51.87°F 50 -0.15°F
196001 - 196012 51.44°F 23 -0.58°F
195901 - 195912 52.10°F 71 0.08°F
195801 - 195812 51.93°F 60 -0.09°F
195701 - 195712 52.04°F 68 0.02°F
195601 - 195612 52.34°F 80 0.32°F
195501 - 195512 51.69°F 40 -0.33°F
195401 - 195412 53.33°F 109 1.31°F
195301 - 195312 53.37°F 110 1.35°F
195201 - 195212 52.27°F 77 0.25°F
195101 - 195112 51.12°F 13 -0.90°F
195001 - 195012 51.39°F 20 -0.63°F
194901 - 194912 52.02°F 65 0.00°F
194801 - 194812 51.61°F 35 -0.41°F
194701 - 194712 51.92°F 58 -0.10°F
194601 - 194612 52.95°F 95 0.93°F
194501 - 194512 51.75°F 44 -0.27°F
194401 - 194412 51.83°F 46 -0.19°F
194301 - 194312 52.07°F 69 0.05°F
194201 - 194212 51.84°F 47 -0.18°F
194101 - 194112 52.66°F 91 0.64°F
194001 - 194012 51.89°F 55 -0.13°F
193901 - 193912 53.26°F 105 1.24°F
193801 - 193812 53.18°F 102 1.16°F
193701 - 193712 51.55°F 31 -0.47°F
193601 - 193612 52.15°F 73 0.13°F
193501 - 193512 51.90°F 56 -0.12°F
193401 - 193412 54.10°F 119 2.08°F
193301 - 193312 52.99°F 97 0.97°F
193201 - 193212 51.73°F 42 -0.29°F
193101 - 193112 53.54°F 113 1.52°F
193001 - 193012 51.98°F 63 -0.04°F
192901 - 192912 50.85°F 6 -1.17°F
192801 - 192812 51.92°F 58 -0.10°F
192701 - 192712 52.15°F 73 0.13°F
192601 - 192612 51.95°F 61 -0.07°F
192501 - 192512 52.52°F 85 0.50°F
192401 - 192412 50.59°F 4 -1.43°F
192301 - 192312 51.64°F 37 -0.38°F
192201 - 192212 52.03°F 67 0.01°F
192101 - 192112 53.80°F 117 1.78°F
192001 - 192012 51.07°F 12 -0.95°F
191901 - 191912 51.55°F 31 -0.47°F
191801 - 191812 51.87°F 50 -0.15°F
191701 - 191712 50.06°F 1 -1.96°F
191601 - 191612 50.85°F 6 -1.17°F
191501 - 191512 51.45°F 24 -0.57°F
191401 - 191412 51.84°F 47 -0.18°F
191301 - 191312 51.54°F 30 -0.48°F
191201 - 191212 50.23°F 2 -1.79°F
191101 - 191112 52.03°F 67 0.01°F
191001 - 191012 52.42°F 83 0.40°F
190901 - 190912 51.43°F 21 -0.59°F
190801 - 190812 52.08°F 70 0.06°F
190701 - 190712 51.48°F 26 -0.54°F
190601 - 190612 51.73°F 42 -0.29°F
190501 - 190512 51.00°F 9 -1.02°F
190401 - 190412 51.16°F 14 -0.86°F
190301 - 190312 50.62°F 5 -1.40°F
190201 - 190212 51.59°F 34 -0.43°F
190101 - 190112 51.87°F 50 -0.15°F
190001 - 190012 52.77°F 93 0.75°F
189901 - 189912 51.01°F 10 -1.01°F
189801 - 189812 51.43°F 21 -0.59°F
189701 - 189712 51.56°F 33 -0.46°F
189601 - 189612 51.99°F 64 -0.03°F
189501 - 189512 50.34°F 3 -1.68°F

Mathematica Generator of image

inp = Import["00.txt", "Table"];

L = Length[inp]

inta = Table[{(Extract[Extract[inp, L - n + 1], 1] - 1)/100,
 10 FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 1]] +
    FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 2]] +
 .1 FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 4]] +
.01 FromDigits[Extract[Characters[Extract[Extract[inp, L + 1 - n], 4]], 5]]}, {n, 1, L}]

tab1900 = Table[Extract[inta, n], {n, 6, L}]

lit1900j =
 ListPlot[tab1900, AspectRatio -> .3, Joined -> True,
  PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[.3, .3, 0], Thickness -> .002},
  GridLines -> {Table[1900 + 10 n, {n, 0, 12}], {50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55}}, PlotRange -> {{1899.9, 2020}, {50.01, 55.4}}]

lit1900 =
 ListPlot[tab1900, AspectRatio -> .3,
  PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[.3, .3, 0], PointSize[.006]},
  GridLines -> {Table[1900 + 10 n, {n, 0, 12}], {50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55}}, PlotRange -> {{1899.8, 2020}, {50.01, 55.4}}]

Show1 = Show[lit1900, lit1900j]

Export["USAtemperature1900-2019.png", Show1]

tab1990 = Table[Extract[inta, n], {n, 96, L}]

f1[x_] = a + b x; ff1 = FindFit[tab1990, f1[t], {a, b}, t]

lit1990b =
 ListPlot[tab1990, AspectRatio -> .3,
  PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[0, 0, 0], PointSize[.01]},
  GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55}},
  PlotRange -> {{1989.8, 2030}, {50.01, 55.4}}]

lit1990jb =
 ListPlot[tab1990, AspectRatio -> .3, Joined -> True,
  PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[0, 0, 0], Thickness -> .002},
  GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55}},
  PlotRange -> {{1989.9, 2020}, {51.01, 55.4}}]

p1990b = Show[lit1990b, lit1990jb]

f1[x_] = a + b x; ff1 = FindFit[tab1990, f1[t], {a, b}, t]
g1[x_] = ReplaceAll[f1[x], ff1]

f2[x_] = a + b x + c x^2; ff2 = FindFit[tab1990, f2[t], {a, b, c}, t];
g2[x_] = ReplaceAll[f2[x], ff2]

p2 = Plot[{g1[t], g2[t]}, {t, 1990, 2040},
  PlotStyle -> {RGBColor[1, 0, 0], RGBColor[0, 0, 1]},
  AspectRatio -> .3,
  GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55,
     56}}, PlotRange -> {{1990, 2030}, {51, 56}}]

s12 = Show[p2, p1990a, PlotRange -> {{1990, 2040}, {51, 55.4}},
  GridLines -> {Table[1990 + 5 n, {n, 0, 10}], {51, 52, 53, 54, 55}}]

Export["USAtemprtatureFit12.png", s12]

References

  1. ↑ https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/time-series/110/tavg/12/12/1900-2020?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000 Climate at a Glance (2020) National Time Series Choose from the options below and click "Plot" to create a time series graph. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI) are not offered for multiple-month time scales. Display Base Period Start: End: Display Trend per Decade per Century Start: End: Smoothed Time Series Binomial Filter LOESS Filter Parameter: Time Scale: Month: Start Year: End Year:

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