Difference between revisions of "Sandbox"
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| + | [[Two concepts of collapse of the USSR]] is comparison of the two interpretations: |
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| − | [[CIA methodology]] by [[ChatGPT]]. |
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| + | 1. [[Collapse of USSR]] had been planned and performed by the Soviet [[oprichnik]]s, agents of [[KGB]] and [[CK KPSS]] |
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| − | Submitted: 2026.03.10. |
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| + | with goal of [[prihvatization]] and legalization of the treasure they had stolen, plundered using the [[slavery]] and the [[state terror]]. |
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| + | 2. [[Collapse of USSR]] ocurred due to the low efficiency of the Soviet political system. The collapse was not expected by the top of the Soviet administration. The oprichniks and top communists did not planned it, did not expect it and did not try to approach it. |
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| − | Accepted with minor revision: 2026.03.11. |
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| + | ==Historic context== |
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| − | Status: ready for uploading. |
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| + | The USSR had been crated at Moscovia as an update of the terroristic bands of bolsheviks. |
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| − | [[CIA methodology]] refers to a set of analytical practices used by the |
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| + | They destroyed the young Russian Republic and plundered the superior power in 1917. |
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| − | [[Central Intelligence Agency]] (CIA) and the broader United States intelligence |
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| − | community to evaluate information, assess reliability of sources, and construct |
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| − | intelligence assessments. |
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| − | <div class="thumb tright" style="float:right; margin:8px 0px 0px -22px; background-color:#fff"> |
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| − | {{picx|ShermanKent.png|180px}} {{picx|RichardsHeuer304x304.jpg|180px}} |
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| − | <small><center>[[Sherman Kent]] and [[Richards Heuer]]</center></small> |
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| − | </div> |
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| − | ==Goals== |
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| + | Lenin and then Stalin hated the population of Moscovia and tried to kill so many compatriots as they could. |
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| − | The goal of these methods is not to guarantee truth but to reduce the risk of |
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| − | analytical errors when interpreting incomplete, uncertain or potentially |
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| − | deceptive information. |
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| − | + | Of order of 50 millions were murdered at the genocide of farmers with so-called kolkhoses. |
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| − | https://dokumen.pub/strategic-intelligence-for-american-world-policy-9781400879151.html Sherman Kent. Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy 9781400879151. PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS// COPYRIGHT, 1 9 4 9 .. |
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| − | </ref>, |
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| − | often considered the founder of modern intelligence analysis. |
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| + | then, of order of 50 millions of moscovians were killed at the quarrel between [[Hitler and Stalin]] |
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| − | Detailed descriptions of the methodology appear in publications by |
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| + | at part of the [[World War II]]. |
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| − | [[Richards J. Heuer Jr.]].<ref name="ric"/> |
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| + | [[Khruschev Nikita Sergeevich]] tried to kill the population of Moscovia with nuclear waste from the military industry; then he tried to destroy all the Human civilization, |
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| − | Typical goals of the methodology include: |
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| + | igniting the new world war with attack on the USA from Cuba with devices of class [[Kuskinamat]] (Tzarbomba). |
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| − | * separation of facts, assumptions and analytical judgments |
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| + | The crime accomplices of Khrischev either did not want to spend the rest of their lives in the special underground palaces, or did not have access to these palaces; so, they did not want to begin the new world war. |
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| − | * evaluation of source reliability |
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| + | For this reason, Khruschev had been dismissed. |
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| − | * identification of analytical biases |
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| − | * comparison of competing hypotheses |
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| + | The new generation of Soviet fascists did not share the suicidal ideas of Lenin-Stalin-Khruschev. |
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| − | ==Source reliability evaluation== |
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| + | So, the Brezhnev administration planned to destroy the the USSR, to kill the most of its population, but |
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| − | Intelligence analysis requires evaluation of both the source and the |
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| + | remain the richest clan of the world, converting at least of part of Moscoiva to some kind of capitalism - |
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| − | information provided. |
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| + | in the form described in book [[Dunno on the Moon]] ([[Незнайка на Луне]]). |
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| + | In order to destroy the USSR, the Brezhnev administration begun the [[Russian invasion into Afghanistan]] |
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| − | Common criteria include: |
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| + | and series of nuclear catastrophes. An additional benefit from these actions was the narcotraffic |
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| − | * '''[[Source reliability]]''' – past accuracy and credibility of the source. |
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| + | (The coffins were used for cocaine smuggling) and the [[money laundering]] on the so-called [[Liquidation]]; |
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| − | * '''[[Information credibility]]''' – internal consistency and plausibility. |
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| + | a lot of stolen staff had been attributed to each catastrophe. |
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| − | * '''[[Independent confirmation]]''' – whether other sources report similar information. |
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| − | * '''[[Traceability]]''' – whether the origin of the information can be identified. |
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| + | The destruction of the USSR had been finished with the special performance, so-called "putch" in 1991 August <ref> |
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| − | These criteria resemble general epistemological principles used in historical |
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| + | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt |
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| − | research and scientific reporting. |
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| + | </ref>. |
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| + | |||
| + | Here, the interpretation is presented in in short, sharp and therefore exaggerated form. |
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| + | Such an interpretation follows from application of the [[Rule of Newspeak]] to [[Sovetism]]. |
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| − | ==Structured analytic techniques== |
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| + | This concept is compared to more traditional, "in-standing" interpretation in the next section. |
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| − | The CIA developed several formal tools intended to reduce cognitive bias in |
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| − | analysis. |
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| + | ==Main table== |
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| − | One of the most widely used methods is [[Analysis of Competing Hypotheses]] (ACH). |
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| + | <table> |
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| + | <tr> |
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| + | <th>Event</th> |
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| + | <th>Interpretation 1: Planned Collapse</th> |
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| + | <th>Interpretation 2: Emergent Collapse</th> |
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| + | </tr> |
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| + | <tr><td>[[1985.08.10.Chazhma]] <ref> |
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| − | ===Analysis of Competing Hypotheses=== |
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| + | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_K-431 |
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| + | </ref><td> |
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| + | Soviet submarine had been exploded by administration for hiding of traces of robbery and for the [[money laundering]] on the nuclear disaster. |
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| + | </td><td> |
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| + | Likely caused by engineering errors, poor maintenance, and bureaucratic negligence; fits the pattern of systemic incompetence without assuming malicious intent. |
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| + | </td></tr> |
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| + | </table> |
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| − | The [[ACH]] ([[Analysis of Competing Hypotheses]]) method was described by [[Richards J. Heuer Jr.]] <ref name="ric"> |
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| − | https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf |
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| − | Richards J. Heuer, Jr. [[Psychology of Intelligence Analysis]]. Central Intelligence Agency 1999. |
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| − | </ref>, 1999. |
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| + | ==Warning== |
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| − | Typical procedure: |
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| − | # List all plausible hypotheses explaining the observed data. |
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| − | # Collect evidence relevant to each hypothesis. |
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| − | # Evaluate how strongly each piece of evidence supports or contradicts each hypothesis. |
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| − | # Pay particular attention to evidence that contradicts a hypothesis. |
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| − | # Eliminate hypotheses inconsistent with the evidence. |
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| + | This article compares two simplified explanatory models of the [[Collapse of USSR]]. |
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| − | The final assessment selects the hypothesis that is least contradicted by |
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| − | available evidence. |
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| + | The formulations in the column "Interpretation 1" are intentionally presented in a sharp and simplified form in order to make the logical structure of the hypothesis explicit. |
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| − | This method attempts to counter the common human tendency to confirm existing |
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| + | They should not be interpreted as established historical facts. |
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| − | beliefs. |
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| + | Similarly, the formulations in the column "Interpretation 2" summarize the more common interpretation in historical literature, which attributes the collapse of the USSR to systemic economic inefficiency, bureaucratic inertia and political instability. |
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| − | ==Cognitive bias control== |
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| + | The goal of the table is not to decide which interpretation is correct, but to compare how different hypotheses explain the same historical events. |
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| − | Intelligence analysis recognizes that analysts are vulnerable to psychological |
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| − | biases. |
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| + | Such comparison may help the reader evaluate: |
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| − | Examples include: |
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| − | * confirmation bias |
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| − | * mirror imaging |
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| − | * availability bias |
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| − | * premature closure of analysis |
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| + | * internal consistency of the interpretations, |
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| − | Analysts are trained to use structured techniques to reduce these effects. |
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| + | * explanatory power of each concept, |
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| + | * compatibility with the available sources. |
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| + | This approach is related to methods described in articles [[TROI]] and [[TORI axioms]], where competing concepts are evaluated by their consistency, simplicity and ability to explain observed events. |
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| − | ==Relation to scientific methodology== |
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| − | |||
| − | CIA analytical practice shares certain similarities with scientific methods. |
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| − | |||
| − | {| class="wikitable" |
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| − | ! Property |
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| − | ! Intelligence analysis |
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| − | ! Scientific research |
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| − | |- |
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| − | | Evidence evaluation |
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| − | | Source reliability and corroboration |
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| − | | Experimental verification |
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| − | |- |
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| − | | Competing explanations |
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| − | | Hypothesis comparison |
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| − | | Hypothesis testing |
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| − | |- |
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| − | | Error reduction |
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| − | | Structured analytic techniques |
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| − | | Peer review and replication |
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| − | |- |
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| − | | Uncertainty |
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| − | | Probabilistic judgments |
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| − | | Statistical inference |
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| − | |} |
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| − | |||
| − | However, intelligence analysis often deals with unique historical events that |
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| − | cannot be experimentally reproduced. |
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| − | |||
| − | Therefore conclusions are usually expressed as probability estimates (within some model(s)) rather than definitive proofs. |
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| − | |||
| − | ==Relation to epistemological criteria== |
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| − | |||
| − | Criteria used in intelligence analysis partially overlap with principles used |
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| − | in historical and scientific evaluation of information: |
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| − | * identifiable origin of information |
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| − | * independent [[corroboration]] |
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| − | * [[transparency of evidence]] |
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| − | * traceable sources |
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| − | |||
| − | These criteria attempt to reduce the influence of rumor, [[propaganda]] and |
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| − | deliberate [[disinformation]]. |
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| − | |||
| − | ==Notes by Editor== |
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| − | The approach suggested above looks similar to that suggested in articles |
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| − | «[[TORI axioms]]» and |
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| − | «[[TROI]]». |
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| − | |||
| − | The [[TROI]] criteria may be useful as a preliminary filter to discriminate the poorly formulated hypothesis (independently on their likelihood). |
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| − | |||
| − | The [[TORI axioms]] may be useful for final qualification of concepts accepted/recommended for the reformulation as [[science|scientific concepts]], |
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| − | for the future investigation, |
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| − | for the practical testing and for the practical application. |
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| − | |||
| − | The [[Rule of Newspeak]] may be useful for those hypothesis that are identified and qualified as a [[propaganda]] (misinformation). After such an interpretation, the absurd, apparently wrong concepts observed in publications may happen to be competitive with initially reasonable hypotheses. |
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| − | |||
| − | The apparently wrong concept still may be subject of consideration, if it appears at many cites. |
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| − | In this case, the main subject of investigations is not the concept by itself, but the origin and mechanism of its popularity. However, the inversion with the [[Rule of Newspeak]] of the initial hypothesis may be also interesting. |
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| − | |||
| − | This is not a critics nor a suggestion for modification of this article: |
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| − | Both the publications you cite appeared much earlier than the [[TORI axioms]] and the [[TROI]] criteria. The only I needed to explain, why your article is important for TORI (and for modern society of century 21), so, I add this "Note". |
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==References== |
==References== |
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{{ref}} |
{{ref}} |
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| − | https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/corroboration |
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| − | [[corroboration]] // noun [ U ] // |
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| − | the act of proving an account, statement, idea, etc. with new information. |
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| − | |||
| − | <!--1955. Sherman Kent. [[Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy]]. --> |
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| − | 1955.xx.xx. |
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| − | https://dokumen.pub/strategic-intelligence-for-american-world-policy-9781400879151.html |
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| − | Sherman Kent. |
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| − | Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy 9781400879151. |
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| − | PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS// COPYRIGHT, 1 9 4 9 .. |
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| − | <!-- 1999. Richards J. Heuer Jr. [[Psychology of Intelligence Analysis]]. --> |
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{{fer}} |
{{fer}} |
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| − | |||
==Keywords== |
==Keywords== |
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| + | [[Collapse of USSR]] |
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| − | |||
| + | [[Moscovia]] |
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| − | «[[Analysis of Competing Hypotheses]]», |
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| − | «[[Central Intelligence Agency]]», |
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| − | «[[Cognitive bias]]», |
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| − | «[[Corroboration]]», |
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| − | «[[Disinformation]]», |
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| − | «[[Intelligence analysis]]», |
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| − | «[[Propaganda]]», |
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| − | «[[Source reliability]]», |
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| − | «[[Transparency of evidence]]», |
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| − | |||
| − | [[Category:ChatGPT]] |
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| − | [[Category:English]] |
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| − | [[Category:Intelligence]] |
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| − | [[Category:Methodology]] |
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| − | [[Category:Philosophy]] |
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| − | [[Category:USA]] |
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Revision as of 17:03, 11 March 2026
Two concepts of collapse of the USSR is comparison of the two interpretations:
1. Collapse of USSR had been planned and performed by the Soviet oprichniks, agents of KGB and CK KPSS with goal of prihvatization and legalization of the treasure they had stolen, plundered using the slavery and the state terror.
2. Collapse of USSR ocurred due to the low efficiency of the Soviet political system. The collapse was not expected by the top of the Soviet administration. The oprichniks and top communists did not planned it, did not expect it and did not try to approach it.
Historic context
The USSR had been crated at Moscovia as an update of the terroristic bands of bolsheviks. They destroyed the young Russian Republic and plundered the superior power in 1917.
Lenin and then Stalin hated the population of Moscovia and tried to kill so many compatriots as they could.
Of order of 50 millions were murdered at the genocide of farmers with so-called kolkhoses.
then, of order of 50 millions of moscovians were killed at the quarrel between Hitler and Stalin at part of the World War II.
Khruschev Nikita Sergeevich tried to kill the population of Moscovia with nuclear waste from the military industry; then he tried to destroy all the Human civilization, igniting the new world war with attack on the USA from Cuba with devices of class Kuskinamat (Tzarbomba). The crime accomplices of Khrischev either did not want to spend the rest of their lives in the special underground palaces, or did not have access to these palaces; so, they did not want to begin the new world war. For this reason, Khruschev had been dismissed.
The new generation of Soviet fascists did not share the suicidal ideas of Lenin-Stalin-Khruschev.
So, the Brezhnev administration planned to destroy the the USSR, to kill the most of its population, but remain the richest clan of the world, converting at least of part of Moscoiva to some kind of capitalism - in the form described in book Dunno on the Moon (Незнайка на Луне).
In order to destroy the USSR, the Brezhnev administration begun the Russian invasion into Afghanistan and series of nuclear catastrophes. An additional benefit from these actions was the narcotraffic (The coffins were used for cocaine smuggling) and the money laundering on the so-called Liquidation; a lot of stolen staff had been attributed to each catastrophe.
The destruction of the USSR had been finished with the special performance, so-called "putch" in 1991 August [1].
Here, the interpretation is presented in in short, sharp and therefore exaggerated form.
Such an interpretation follows from application of the Rule of Newspeak to Sovetism.
This concept is compared to more traditional, "in-standing" interpretation in the next section.
Main table
| Event | Interpretation 1: Planned Collapse | Interpretation 2: Emergent Collapse |
|---|---|---|
| 1985.08.10.Chazhma [2] |
Soviet submarine had been exploded by administration for hiding of traces of robbery and for the money laundering on the nuclear disaster. |
Likely caused by engineering errors, poor maintenance, and bureaucratic negligence; fits the pattern of systemic incompetence without assuming malicious intent. |
Warning
This article compares two simplified explanatory models of the Collapse of USSR.
The formulations in the column "Interpretation 1" are intentionally presented in a sharp and simplified form in order to make the logical structure of the hypothesis explicit. They should not be interpreted as established historical facts.
Similarly, the formulations in the column "Interpretation 2" summarize the more common interpretation in historical literature, which attributes the collapse of the USSR to systemic economic inefficiency, bureaucratic inertia and political instability.
The goal of the table is not to decide which interpretation is correct, but to compare how different hypotheses explain the same historical events.
Such comparison may help the reader evaluate:
- internal consistency of the interpretations,
- explanatory power of each concept,
- compatibility with the available sources.
This approach is related to methods described in articles TROI and TORI axioms, where competing concepts are evaluated by their consistency, simplicity and ability to explain observed events.
References