Russia used the nuclear weapon in 2011

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Various authors mention that the contamination due the Fukushima disaster is comparable to (or greater than) that due to the Chernobyl disaster. On the other hand, at Chernobyl, the nuclear fuel used to burn out into the atmosphere, while at Fukushima it seems to remain confined; so the contamination should be several orders of magnitude smaller. This article suggests a hypothesis to explain the strong disagreement in the estimates.

Contents

Preface

The hypothesis below is scientific, it is an attempt to interpret the contradictory publications. This is scientific concept, and it should not be treated as a claim that Russian goverment wage a nuclear war against Japan. The cplleagues are invited to suggest an alternative hypothesis that would describe the observable publications. The blames about insufficient political correctness of this hypothesis should be addressed to Sergej Kirienko [1], Nataliya Mironova [2] and Aleksander Shumsky [3] who had committed statements, that can be interpreted in favor of such a hypothesis.

Introduction

The article Who contaminates Japan mentions the excess of the radioactive contamination in March, 2011 in compare to that one could expect due to the catastrophe at the Fukushima nuclear plant; and the Russian base at the island Shikotan is considered as one of possible sources of the contamination. Here, the alternative hypothesis is considered.

This article describes the following hypothesis:
The huge 10m tsunami and the radioactive contamination (similar to the Chernobyl disaster and usually attributed to the catastrophe at the Fukushima nuclear plant) were caused by the under-sea explosion of the Russian device(s) of class similar to the "tsar-bomba" [4]; the explosion cold be synchronized to the strong shock caused by the natural tectonic activity. In order to confirm or to negate this hypothesis, below are suggested the rough estimates of the orders of magnitude of the relevant quantities.

Rough estimates

The nuclear device of class "Tzar-bomb" of energy of order of $100$ megaton of the trinitrotholuol equivalent may deliver the energy of order of

$W \approx 10^{16}$ J 

to the hot bubble created. (1 kg of TNT is considered as an equivalent of $4.184×10^6$ J.) At the under-bottom explosion, this bubble pushes the sea-bottom ground, the water, and then, roughly, its volume is limited by the atmospheric pressure

$P \approx 10^5 \rm J/m^3$.

This volume can be estimated as

$V\approx W/P \approx 10^{11} \rm m^3$. 

This counts several cubic kilometers. Assume that the bubble is distributed at the area of size of order of 30 km - this is depth of the epicenter of the earthquake reported. Then, the horizontal size of the bubble may be of order of

$R^2 \approx 10^9 \rm m^2$ .

This gives the rough estimate for the altitude $H$ of the tsunami in vicinity of the epicenter, id set,

$H = V/R^2 = \frac{W}{P R^2} = \rm \frac{10^{16}}{10^5 \times 10^9} \rm m = 100m$ .

At so thick layer, the pressure below should be an order of magnitude higher, than the atmospheric pressure; to, the more realistic estimate $h$ of the the tsunami height $h$ should be an order of magnitude lower, id set,

$h\approx H/10 \approx 10\rm m$.

At the expansion from spot of size of order of 30km (depth of the quake) to the ring of size of 300 km (scale of distance to the coast), the altitude decreases for an or order of magnitude (say, till one meter), but this loss is compensated by the sharpening typical for waves approaching the coast. The oder of magnitude of 10 meters corresponds to the size of tsunami 2011 March 11 reported [5].

Verification

The hypothesis above explains the following facts:

1. Extensive radioactive contamination (registered not only at Japan, but also at the West coast of the USA and Canada), that exceeds the amount of radiation one could expect due to the leak from the Fukushima reactor(s) for orders of magnitude. [6][2][7][1]

2. The match of the main trend of the fit of the contamination for March 14-21 [8] with the epicenter of the earthquake 2011 March 11: 38.322°N, 142.369°E [9]

3. The insulting declarations and menaces by the Russian representatives. [1][3]

Conclusions

The hypothesis about application of the nuclear weapon by the Russian Federation in March, 2011 agrees with the Russian Nuclear Doctrine [10] and other published estimates.

I suggest that the international organizations analyze the hypothesis above and interrogate the representative of the Russian Federation (in particular, Sergej Kirienko [1], Nataliya Mironova [2] and Aleksander Shumsky [3] in order either to confirm or to negate such a hypothesis.

April 2011 - November 2012, Dmitrii Kouznetsov.

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 http://rus.ruvr.ru/2011/03/18/47628439.html Сергей Кириенко. Трагедия на японской АЭС Фукусима неизбежна. 18.03.2011, 18:16. Японские ликвидаторы, охлаждающие реакторы японской АЭС "Фукусима-1", лишь сдерживают темпы ухудшения ситуации, но не могут остановить ее развитие, заявил глава "Росатома" Сергей Кириенко на заседании Совбеза. (in Russian)
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=126888 Russian Expert: Fukushima Disaster Greater Than Chernobyl World | April 2, 2011, Saturday. ...A Russian nuclear expert has stated that the crisis situation in Fukushima is much worse than that in Chernobyl and might lead to a change in the scale for measuring nuclear emergencies. // "The crisis in Japan will cost a lot more than Chernobyl in terms of economic and human losses," according to nuclear engineer Nataliya Mironova, who is a leading figure in Russia in the field…
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 http://www.ruskline.ru/news_rl/2011/03/14/konec_yaponskogo_chuda/ Иерей Александр Шумский. Конец «японского чуда». 14.03.2011. ... Практически все русские люди, в один голос, не сговариваясь, утверждают, что страшный природный катаклизм в Японии есть возмездие этой стране за оскорбление нашего Отечества.... подобная катастрофа и даже ещё более страшная в любой момент может произойти снова... ...мне совсем не жаль Японию, показавшую нам предельную степень своей враждебности....(In Russian)
  4. http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Russia/TsarBomba.html L.Feoktistov. Big Ivan, The Tsar Bomba (“King of Bombs”). The World's Largest Nuclear Weapon. 3 September 2007.
  5. http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110311p2g00m0dm056000c.html 10-meter tsunami observed in Sendai port in Miyagi Pref. (Mainichi Japan) March 11, 2011. TOKYO (Kyodo) -- A 10-meter tsunami was observed at Sendai port in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture, in northeastern Japan, at around 3:55 p.m. after a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 rocked the region Friday, local police said.
  6. http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/?p=1519 Michael Collins. “Fukushima radioactive fallout nears Chernobyl levels”. 2011 March 25.
  7. http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=37869&Cat=9&dt=3/24/2011 Praful Bidwai. Lessons from Fukushima. Thursday, March 24, 2011. .. The scale is way beyond the 1979 Three Mile Island disaster in the US, and comparable to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear meltdown in Ukraine…
  8. http://mainichi.jp/select/weathernews/news/images/20110323k0000m040088000p_size8.jpg Map of contamination for 2011 March 14 - March 21. In Japanese. (The content at that URL had been replaced after it had been cited at TORI. Those data were used to make the fit shown in http://tori.ils.uec.ac.jp/TORI/index.php/File:4t1.jpg)
  9. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2011/usc0001xgp/ Magnitude 9.0 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN. 2011 March 11 05:46:23 UTC.
  10. http://news.kremlin.ru/ref_notes/461 Военная доктрина Российской Федерации. 5 февраля 2010 года. Российская Федерация оставляет за собой право применить ядерное оружие в ответ на применение против нее и (или) ее союзников ядерного и других видов оружия массового поражения, а также в случае агрессии против Российской Федерации с применением обычного оружия, когда под угрозу поставлено само существование государства. (In Russian)

Additional links

http://news.babr.ru/?IDE=89662 ВЧ 71104. Землетрясения каждый день. Расследования, 15.11.2010. В здании администрации чунского района сила землетрясения ощущается на 4 балла, так это ха 20 км. от арсенала по прямой, а в пос.Лесогорск жителю ощущают все 5 балов, бьются стекла в подъездах, появляются трещины в фундаменте. Гражданские военным не указ, поэтому районная администрация направила письмо на имя министра обороны. Как вы думаете, обратит внимание человек с грозной фамилией (Сердюков) на челобитную из далекого сибирского посёлка? Смеётесь? А чунарям уже не смешно ... (In Russian)

http://www.5-tv.ru/news/21430/ Владимир Путин погрузился на дно Байкала — Репортаж. Политика 01.08.2009, 18:35.(In Russian)

http://lenta.ru/news/2009/08/01/deep/ Путин на аппарате "Мир" погрузился на дно Байкала. 01.08.2009, 08:33:22.(In Russian)

http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/seno/Papers/2001GL013149.pdf Uyichi Tanioka, Tetsuzo Seno. Sediment effect on tsunami generation of 1986 Sanriku tsubami earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, v.28, No.17, p.2289-3392, sept 1, 2001.

http://www.b-b-c.com.ua/exp.php?ni=4006&type=1 Виктор Суворов: «Россия может рухнуть завтра утром. Или даже сегодня вечером». 28.04.2011 13:37 — Один блогер написал, что, возможно, Путин какую-то сейсмическую бомбу испытал на японцах… — По-моему, наука и военный потенциал России слишком ослабли, чтобы у Путина могла быть такая бомба. Все его ученые давно разбежались. (In Russian. The link mentioned is not supplied. Whom does Suvorov mean? Are any estimates suggested there? It would be interesting to compare that estimates to the estimates above.)

Related articles: Fukushima disaster, Chernobyl disaster, Who contaminates Japan?