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{{top}}
  
{{top}}
−
[[Two concepts of collapse of the USSR]] is comparison of the two interpretations:
  
   
  +
[[Swift enforcement of the Budapest Memorandum]] is a [[gedankenexperiment]] describing
−
1. [[Collapse of USSR]] had been planned and performed by the Soviet [[oprichnik]]s, agents of [[KGB]] and [[CK KPSS]]
  
  +
how the guarantees given to Ukraine in 1994 could have been implemented if the
−
with goal of [[prihvatization]] and legalization of the treasure they had stolen, plundered using the [[slavery]] and the [[state terror]].
  
  +
United States and its allies had decided to enforce them consistently and
  +
rapidly.
   
  +
The scenario is intentionally simplified in order to make the causal logic
−
2. [[Collapse of USSR]] ocurred due to the low efficiency of the Soviet political system. The collapse was not expected by the top of the Soviet administration. The oprichniks and top communists did not planned it, did not expect it and did not try to approach it.
  
  +
explicit.
   
  +
This [[emulation]] is generated by [[ChatGPT]] in order to explain the sense of the [[Budapest memorandum]] - under condition, that initially, it was not a fraud, nor a bluff, nor a trick since the beginning, and initially, its signing by the American President was not an attempt to destroy the International Law, nor an attempt to show that America again becomes a poor colony with external government - as it was 3 centures ago.
−
==Historic context==
  
   
  +
I such a way, the emulation below is constructed under fantastic assumption, that
−
The USSR had been crated at Moscovia as an update of the terroristic bands of bolsheviks.
  
  +
the [[Moscovia]]n [[war crime]]s do not menace the world with the [[nuclear weapon]], and, at this conditions, the [[Budapest memorandum]] still could have been implemented.
−
They destroyed the young Russian Republic and plundered the superior power in 1917.
  
  +
<div class="thumb tright" style="float:right; margin:2px 0px 0px -24px; width:300px; background-color:#fff; line-height:1em">
  +
{{pic|AP_9412050636-min_(1).jpg|300px}} <small><center><p style="0px 0px 0px 8px; line-height:1em; width:300px">
  +
Russian President Boris Yeltsin, left, American President Bill Clinton, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, and British Prime Minister John Major, extreme right, sign the [[Budapest memorandum]] 1994.12.05 <ref>
  +
https://www.belfercenter.org/event/ukraines-nuclear-disarmament-25-years-after-budapest-memorandum
  +
Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament: 25 Years After the [[Budapest memorandum|Budapest Memorandum]]. Fri., Dec. 6, 2019 | 8:30am - 5:30pm.
  +
</ref></p></center></small>
  +
</div>
  +
==Premise==
  +
In 1994 [[Ukraine]] agreed to give up the nuclear weapons inherited from the [[USSR]].
  +
In exchange, the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation
  +
signed the [[Budapest memorandum]], promising to respect the sovereignty and
  +
territorial integrity of Ukraine.
   
  +
The thought experiment below assumes that the US administration interprets these
−
Lenin and then Stalin hated the population of Moscovia and tried to kill so many compatriots as they could.
  
  +
assurances not merely as diplomatic language but as commitments affecting the
  +
national interests and credibility of the United States.
   
  +
==Phase 1: Intelligence Assessment (1994–2000)==
−
Of order of 50 millions were murdered at the genocide of farmers with so-called kolkhoses.
  
   
  +
1994.12.01
−
then, of order of 50 millions of moscovians were killed at the quarrel between [[Hitler and Stalin]]
  
−
at part of the [[World War II]].
  
   
  +
US intelligence services deliver an analytical memorandum to the President and
−
[[Khruschev Nikita Sergeevich]] tried to kill the population of Moscovia with nuclear waste from the military industry; then he tried to destroy all the Human civilization,
 
  +
to Congress.
−
igniting the new world war with attack on the USA from Cuba with devices of class [[Kuskinamat]] (Tzarbomba).
  
−
The crime accomplices of Khrischev either did not want to spend the rest of their lives in the special underground palaces, or did not have access to these palaces; so, they did not want to begin the new world war.
  
−
For this reason, Khruschev had been dismissed.
  
   
  +
The report states that:
−
The new generation of Soviet fascists did not share the suicidal ideas of Lenin-Stalin-Khruschev.
  
   
  +
* After the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation may attempt to restore influence over former Soviet territories.
−
So, the Brezhnev administration planned to destroy the the USSR, to kill the most of its population, but
  
−
remain the richest clan of the world, converting at least of part of Moscoiva to some kind of capitalism -
  
−
in the form described in book [[Dunno on the Moon]] ([[Незнайка на Луне]]).
  
   
  +
* Military pressure against neighboring states is considered plausible.
−
In order to destroy the USSR, the Brezhnev administration begun the [[Russian invasion into Afghanistan]]
  
−
and series of nuclear catastrophes. An additional benefit from these actions was the narcotraffic
 
−
(The coffins were used for cocaine smuggling) and the [[money laundering]] on the so-called [[Liquidation]];
  
−
a lot of stolen staff had been attributed to each catastrophe.
  
   
  +
* Potential targets include weak or politically unstable former Soviet republics.
−
The destruction of the USSR had been finished with the special performance, so-called "putch" in 1991 August <ref name="putch"/>
  
−
 
−
Here, the interpretation is presented in in short, sharp and therefore exaggerated form.
 
   
  +
The report also evaluates two strategic scenarios.
−
Such an interpretation follows from application of the [[Rule of Newspeak]] to [[Sovetism]].
  
   
  +
Scenario A:
−
This concept is compared to more traditional, "in-standing" interpretation in the next section.
  
  +
Ukraine keeps nuclear weapons.
  +
This creates a regional balance of power but complicates nuclear
  +
non-proliferation policy.
   
  +
Scenario B:
−
==Main table==
  
  +
Ukraine gives up nuclear weapons in exchange for credible security guarantees
−
<table>
  
  +
from nuclear powers.
−
<tr>
  
−
<th>Event</th>
  
−
<th>Interpretation 1: Planned Collapse</th>
  
−
<th>Interpretation 2: Emergent Collapse</th>
  
−
</tr>
  
−
<tr><td>[[Soviet innovation into Afghanistan|1979.Afghanistan]] <ref>
  
−
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War
  
−
</ref></td><td>
  
−
Soviet [[offee]]s wanted to boost the corruption, to cover the mass robbery,
 
−
to promote the smuggling of drugs and to boost the [[collapse of USSR]] in order to legalize their treasures.
  
−
</td><td>
  
−
The invasion resulted from ideological rigidity and geopolitical miscalculation by the Soviet leadership. The prolonged war drained economic resources, reduced international legitimacy, and contributed unintentionally to systemic weakening of the USSR.
  
−
</td></tr>
  
   
  +
The report concludes that Scenario B is viable only if the guarantees are considered enforceable.
−
<tr><td>[[1985.08.10.Chazhma]] <ref>
  
−
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_K-431
  
−
</ref><td>
  
−
Soviet submarine had been exploded by Soviet [[offee]]s for hiding of mass robbery, and for the [[money laundering]] on the nuclear disaster, and to boost the [[collapse of USSR]].
  
−
</td><td>
  
−
Likely caused by engineering errors, poor maintenance, and bureaucratic negligence; fits the pattern of systemic incompetence without assuming malicious intent.
  
−
</td></tr>
  
   
  +
1994.12.02
−
<tr><td>[[Chernobyl disaster|1986.Chernobyl disaster]] <ref>
  
−
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster
  
−
</ref></td><td>
  
−
Soviet [[offee]]s wanted to hide the mass robbery, to perform the [[money laundering]] on the catastrophe and to boost the [[collapse of USSR]].
  
−
</td><td>
  
−
Widely interpreted as the result of flawed reactor design, unsafe testing procedures, and systemic bureaucratic negligence. The disaster exposed weaknesses in the Soviet system and significantly damaged public trust.
  
−
</td></tr>
  
   
  +
The President acknowledges the report and instructs intelligence agencies to
−
<tr><td>[[1991.August putsch]] <ref name="putch">
  
  +
monitor Russian military and political developments closely.
−
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt
  
−
</ref></td><td>
  
−
Political performance organized to legitimize the final dismounting of the [[USSR]] and simplify the transfer of state property to criminal structures.
  
−
</td><td>
  
−
Interpreted as a genuine attempt by conservative elements of the Soviet leadership to prevent the disintegration of the [[USSR]]. The failure of the coup accelerated the collapse of central authority.
  
−
</td></tr>
  
−
</table>
  
   
−
==Warning==
 +
==Phase 2: Early Warning Signals (1994–2008)==
  +
{{fig|Pu01puppetmaster.jpg|100|-44|1|8|}}
  +
In subsequent years intelligence monitoring identifies several patterns:
  +
* Military operations against [[Ichkeria]] ([[First Chechen War]]).
  +
* Russian political rhetoric emphasizing influence over the “near abroad”.
  +
* Gradual increase of military presence of Russia and frozen conflicts in territories such as [[Transnistria]], [[Abkhazia]] and [[South Ossetia]].
   
  +
Analysts warn that these conflicts demonstrate a strategic method of RF:<br>
−
This article compares two simplified explanatory models of the [[Collapse of USSR]].
  
  +
1. Create or maintain unstable regions in neighboring states.<br>
  +
2. Use military presence to influence political outcomes.<br>
  +
3. Prevent integration of these states into Western institutions.
   
  +
The assessment concludes that Ukraine may eventually face similar pressure.
−
The formulations in the column "Interpretation&nbsp;1" are intentionally presented in a sharp and simplified form in order to make the logical structure of the hypothesis explicit.
 
−
They should not be interpreted as established historical facts.
  
   
  +
2008.08.08, the [[Russian invasion into Georgia]] confirms this pattern
−
Similarly, the formulations in the column "Interpretation&nbsp;2" summarize the more common interpretation in historical literature, which attributes the collapse of the USSR to systemic economic inefficiency, bureaucratic inertia and political instability.
  
   
  +
Intelligence briefings warn that the Georgian war could represent a precedent
−
The goal of the table is not to decide which interpretation is correct, but to compare how different hypotheses explain the same historical events.
  
  +
for future operations against other neighbors, including Ukraine.
   
  +
==Phase 3: Pre-Crisis Alert (2008–2014)==
−
Such comparison may help the reader evaluate:
  
   
  +
After the Georgian war, US intelligence agencies intensify monitoring of
−
* internal consistency of the interpretations,
  
  +
Russian military modernization and political strategy.
−
* explanatory power of each concept,
  
  +
{{fig|BackInTheUSSR.png|144|0|2|2|[[Back in the USSR]]}}
−
* compatibility with the available sources.
  
  +
Analysts warn that:
   
  +
* Crimea has strategic value because of the Black Sea Fleet.
−
This approach is related to methods described in articles [[TROI]] and [[TORI axioms]], where competing concepts are evaluated by their consistency, simplicity and ability to explain observed events.
  
  +
* Political instability in Ukraine could create an opportunity for intervention.
  +
* Hybrid methods (covert troops, irregular forces, propaganda) may be used to obscure responsibility.
  +
  +
By early 2014 intelligence reports conclude that military intervention in Ukraine is highly probable.
  +
  +
==Phase 4: Immediate Response (2014)==
  +
{{fig|PuSanctions.jpeg|160|-20|4|8|}}
  +
{{fig|107253_original.jpg|100|4|0|8|}}
  +
When armed forces without insignia appear in Crimea in February 2014,
  +
the United States and the United Kingdom interpret the event as a violation of
  +
the [[Budapest memorandum]].
  +
  +
Within days they take several coordinated actions.
  +
  +
Diplomatic action:
  +
An official warning is delivered to the Russian leadership stating that
  +
continued occupation of Ukrainian territory will trigger collective responses.
  +
  +
Legal action:
  +
The issue is immediately raised in the United Nations and international courts.
  +
  +
Military deterrence:
  +
NATO rapidly deploys naval and air units to the region as a defensive measure.
  +
  +
Economic pressure:
  +
Assets connected to the Russian state and key political figures are frozen.
  +
  +
These measures are presented not as escalation but as enforcement of previously
  +
agreed commitments.
  +
  +
==Phase 5: Resolution Scenario==
  +
  +
Under coordinated diplomatic, economic and military pressure the Russian
  +
leadership faces a strategic choice:
  +
  +
continue escalation with severe international consequences,
  +
or withdraw forces and negotiate.
  +
  +
In this simplified scenario the crisis ends with withdrawal of occupying
  +
forces and restoration of Ukrainian control over its territory.
  +
  +
==Consequences==
  +
{{fig|Mvn78red1.jpg|144|-20|2|2|}}
  +
The rapid enforcement of the [[Budapest memorandum]] produces several effects:
  +
* international agreements gain credibility;
  +
* aggressive territorial revisionism becomes less attractive;
  +
* states that renounced nuclear weapons see that security guarantees can work.
  +
  +
==Methodological note==
  +
  +
This article describes a hypothetical scenario rather than a prediction or a
  +
historical claim.
  +
  +
Its purpose is to illustrate how intelligence analysis, diplomatic pressure,
  +
economic tools and military deterrence could theoretically interact in the
  +
enforcement of international security guarantees.
  +
  +
==Notes by Editor==
   
 
==References==
  
==References==
 
{{ref}}
  
{{ref}}
  +
  +
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
  +
  +
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf
  +
Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994 //
  +
Entry into force: 5 December 1994 by signature //
  +
Authentic texts: English, Russian and Ukrainian //
  +
Registration with the Secretariat of the United Nations: Ukraine, 2 October 2014
  +
  +
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/236/236-h/236-h.htm#link2H_4_0001 [[Rudyard Kipling]]. THE JUNGLE BOOK. Release Date: January 16, 2006 [EBook #236] Last Updated: October 6, 2016. .. Akela lifted his head again and said, “He has eaten our food. He has slept with us. He has driven game for us. He has broken no word of the Law of the Jungle.”// “Also, I paid for him with a bull when he was accepted. The worth of a bull is little, but Bagheera’s honor is something that he will perhaps fight for,” said Bagheera in his gentlest voice.// “A bull paid ten years ago!” the Pack snarled. “What do we care for bones ten years old?” ..
  +
  +
2015.11.10.
  +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA8kaGnf4ro [[Marco Rubio]]: Putin Is A Gangster. Published on Nov 10, 2015. Fox Business Debate 11.10.15.
  +
  +
2017.04.06.
  +
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1RSG2TeHAU Rubio: 'Putin is a war criminal' CNN Apr 6, 2017
  +
  +
2022.03.04. <small>
  +
https://news.sky.com/story/russian-invasion-wouldnt-have-happened-if-ukraine-still-had-nuclear-weapons-ukrainian-political-adviser-says-12556811
  +
</small>Russian invasion 'wouldn't have happened' if Ukraine still had nuclear weapons, Ukrainian political adviser says
  +
[[Svitlana Zalishchuk]], a foreign policy adviser to the Ukrainian deputy prime minister, told Sky News that Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons was "without a doubt" a mistake. By [[Alexa Phillips]], news reporter Friday 4 March 2022 13:10, UK
  +
  +
2022.11.01.
  +
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-vladimir-putin-would-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine
  +
Why Vladimir Putin Would Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine..
  +
The more the Kremlin has signalled its readiness to drop a nuclear bomb, the more the rest of the world has sought a reason to believe that it will not. By [[Masha Gessen]] November 1, 2022.
  +
  +
2023.03.17.<small>
  +
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and
  +
</small> Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the [[International Criminal Court]] (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. ..
  +
  +
2024.04.20. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/20/us-house-approves-61bn-aid-ukraine [[Robert Tait]], Joan E Greve and Chris Michael. US House approves $61bn in military aid for Ukraine after months of stalling. Sat 20 Apr 2024 22.46 BST
  +
  +
2024.11.13.
  +
https://unn.ua/en/news/ukraine-may-restore-nuclear-status-if-us-aid-is-cut-off-the-times
  +
Ukraine may restore nuclear status if US aid is cut off - The Times
  +
Kyiv • UNN November 13 2024, 08:54 PM ..
  +
The Times reports on the possibility that Ukraine could develop a [[nuclear weapon]] in a few months if US military aid is cut. ..
  +
  +
2025.03.12.
  +
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/03/12/world/ukraine-security-nuclear-proliferation/
  +
Lessons from Ukraine: Allies are fickle, nukes are forever//
  +
If Kyiv is left to capitulate, others will see security as stemming from power, not assurances. BY THOMAS O. FALK .. Mar 12, 2025
  +
  +
2025.04.21.<small>
  +
https://global.espreso.tv/military-news-ukraine-could-technically-restore-nuclear-status-in-just-four-years-experts-say
  +
</small> Ukraine could technically restore nuclear status in just four years, experts say// 21 april, 2025 monday 11:16
  +
  +
2025.07.01. <small>
  +
https://united24media.com/latest-news/uk-must-help-ukraine-regain-nuclear-arms-retired-british-commander-says-8787
  +
</small>[[Roman Kohanets]].
  +
UK Must Help Ukraine Regain Nuclear Arms, Retired British Commander Says
  +
May 31, 2025 16:42 Updated Jul 01, 2025 00:25.
  +
</small>
   
 
{{fer}}
  
{{fer}}
   
 
==Keywords==
  
==Keywords==
−
«[[Communism]]»,
 +
«[[Advices for Trump]]»,
−
«[[Bolshevism]]»,
 +
«[[]]»,
  +
«[[Alternative Math]]»,
  +
«[[Annexation of Canada]]»,
  +
«[[Annexation of Crimea]]»,
  +
«[[Annexation of Greenland]]»,
  +
«[[Annexation of Ichkeria]]»,
  +
«[[Appeasing aggression]]»,
  +
«[[Barack Obama]]»,
  +
«[[Bill Clinton]]»,
  +
«[[Budapest memorandum]]»,
  +
«[[CIA]]»,
  +
«[[CIA methodology‎‎]]»,
  +
«[[ChatGPT]]»,
  +
«[[Collapse of RF]]»,
  +
«[[Collapse of USA]]»,
 
«[[Collapse of USSR]]»,
  
«[[Collapse of USSR]]»,
 
«[[Corruption]]»,
  
«[[Corruption]]»,
  +
«[[Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism]]»,
  +
«[[Designate Russia as terrorist state]]»,
  +
«[[Donald Trump]]»,
  +
«[[Donroe Doctrine]]»,
  +
«[[Duration]]»,
  +
«[[Dvizhuha]]»,
 
«[[Fascism]]»,
  
«[[Fascism]]»,
  +
«[[Gedankenexperment]]»,
  +
«[[Hybrid war]]»,
  +
«[[Jinping]]»,
  +
«[[Joe Biden]]»,
 
«[[Moscovia]]»,
  
«[[Moscovia]]»,
−
«[[Newspeak]]»,
 +
«[[Mystic weakness]]»,
−
«[[Rule of Newspeak]]»,
 +
«[[New World Order]]»,
−
«[[Sovetism]]»,
 +
«[[Pahanat]]»,
−
«[[USSR]]»,
 +
«[[Propaganda]]»,
  +
«[[Putin]]»,
  +
«[[Putin world war]]»,
  +
«[[Realpolitik]]»,
  +
«[[Russian Agent Governs America]]»,
  +
«[[Russian invasion into Ichkeria]]»,
  +
«[[Russian invasion into Ukraine]]»,
  +
«[[Russki mir]]»,
  +
«[[Sabotage]]»,
  +
«[[Small Victorious War]]»,
  +
«[[Small victorious war]]»,
  +
«[[TROI‎‎]]»,
  +
«[[Trump as KGB agent]]»,
  +
«[[Two concepts of collapse of the USSR‎‎]]»,
  +
«[[USA]]»,
  +
«[[Witkoff-Lavrov Pact Emulation]]»,
  +
«[[Wreckage of Crimea]]»,
   
−
«[[А нас то за что]]»,
 +
«[[Аннексия Ичкерии]]»,
−
«[[Большевизм]]»,
 +
«[[Аннексия Крыма]]»,
  +
«[[Будапештский меморандум]]»,
−
«[[]]»,
  
  +
«[[Гибридная война]]»,
−
«[[Большевики убили почти всех]]»,
  
−
«[[Вертикаль власти]]»,
 +
«[[Движуха]]»,
−
«[[Коммунизм]]»,
 +
«[[Ихтамнет]]»,
  +
«[[Кисельные берега]]»,
 
«[[Коррупция]]»,
  
«[[Коррупция]]»,
  +
«[[Маленькая победоносная война]]»,
 
«[[Московия]]»,
  
«[[Московия]]»,
  +
«[[Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут]]»,
−
«[[Россия]]»,
  
  +
«[[Мысленный эксперимент]]»,
−
«[[Правило новояза]]»,
  
  +
«[[Новый Мировой Порядок]]»,
−
«[[Прихватизация]]»,
  
  +
«[[Остов Крым]]»,
−
«[[Путинская мировая война]]»,
  
−
«[[Распад СССР]]»,
 +
«[[Остров Крым]]»,
−
«[[Советизм]]»,
 +
«[[От Аляски до Одесы]]»,
  +
«[[Паханат]]»,
  +
«[[Путинский план спецоперации]]»,
  +
«[[Российское вторжение в Грузию]]»,
  +
«[[Российское вторжение в Украину]]»
  +
«[[Саботаж]]»,
  +
«[[Синий вертолёт]]»,
  +
«[[Спецоперация]]»,
  +
«[[]]»,
  +
«[[Трамп Дональд Фредович]]»,
  +
«[[Умиротворение агрессора]]»,
  +
«[[Утопия]]»,
 
«[[Фашизм]]»,
  
«[[Фашизм]]»,
  +
«[[Эмуляция]]»,
   
−
[[Category:Bolshevism]]
 +
[[Category:Advices for Trump]]
  +
[[Category:Annexation of Canada]]
  +
[[Category:Annexation of Crimea]]
  +
[[Category:Annexation of Greenland]]
  +
[[Category:Annexation of Ichkeria]]
  +
[[Category:Anti-Putin coalition]]
  +
[[Category:Appeasing aggression]]
  +
[[Category:Barack Obama]]
  +
[[Category:Bill Clinton]]
  +
[[Category:Budapest memorandum]]
  +
[[Category:CIA]]
  +
[[Category:ChatGPT]]
  +
[[Category:Collapse of RF]]
  +
[[Category:Collapse of USA]]
 
[[Category:Collapse of USSR]]
  
[[Category:Collapse of USSR]]
 
[[Category:Corruption]]
  
[[Category:Corruption]]
  +
[[Category:Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism]]
  +
[[Category:Designate Russia as terrorist state]]
  +
[[Category:Donald Trump]]
  +
[[Category:Donroe Doctrine]]
  +
[[Category:Dvizhuha]]
 
[[Category:Fascism]]
  
[[Category:Fascism]]
  +
[[Category:Gedankenexperment]]
 
[[Category:History]]
  
[[Category:History]]
  +
[[Category:Hybrid war]]
  +
[[Category:Joe Biden]]
 
[[Category:Moscovia]]
  
[[Category:Moscovia]]
  +
[[Category:New World Order]]
  +
[[Category:Pahanat]]
 
[[Category:Propaganda]]
  
[[Category:Propaganda]]
−
[[Category:USSR]]
 +
[[Category:Putin]]
  +
[[Category:Putin world war]]
  +
[[Category:Realpolitik]]
  +
[[Category:Russian Agent Governs America]]
  +
[[Category:Russian invasion into Ichkeria]]
  +
[[Category:Russian invasion into Ukraine]]
  +
[[Category:Russki mir]]
  +
[[Category:Sabotage]]
  +
[[Category:Sci-fi]]
  +
[[Category:Trump as KGB agent]]
  +
[[Category:USA]]
  +
[[Category:Utopia]]
  +
[[Category:Witkoff-Lavrov Pact Emulation]]
  +
[[Category:Wreckage of Crimea]]

Latest revision as of 20:34, 12 March 2026


Swift enforcement of the Budapest Memorandum is a gedankenexperiment describing how the guarantees given to Ukraine in 1994 could have been implemented if the United States and its allies had decided to enforce them consistently and rapidly.

The scenario is intentionally simplified in order to make the causal logic explicit.

This emulation is generated by ChatGPT in order to explain the sense of the Budapest memorandum - under condition, that initially, it was not a fraud, nor a bluff, nor a trick since the beginning, and initially, its signing by the American President was not an attempt to destroy the International Law, nor an attempt to show that America again becomes a poor colony with external government - as it was 3 centures ago.

I such a way, the emulation below is constructed under fantastic assumption, that the Moscovian war crimes do not menace the world with the nuclear weapon, and, at this conditions, the Budapest memorandum still could have been implemented.

Ap941.jpg

Russian President Boris Yeltsin, left, American President Bill Clinton, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, and British Prime Minister John Major, extreme right, sign the Budapest memorandum 1994.12.05 [1]

Premise

In 1994 Ukraine agreed to give up the nuclear weapons inherited from the USSR. In exchange, the United States, the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation signed the Budapest memorandum, promising to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

The thought experiment below assumes that the US administration interprets these assurances not merely as diplomatic language but as commitments affecting the national interests and credibility of the United States.

Phase 1: Intelligence Assessment (1994–2000)

1994.12.01

US intelligence services deliver an analytical memorandum to the President and to Congress.

The report states that:

  • After the collapse of the USSR, the Russian Federation may attempt to restore influence over former Soviet territories.
  • Military pressure against neighboring states is considered plausible.
  • Potential targets include weak or politically unstable former Soviet republics.

The report also evaluates two strategic scenarios.

Scenario A: Ukraine keeps nuclear weapons. This creates a regional balance of power but complicates nuclear non-proliferation policy.

Scenario B: Ukraine gives up nuclear weapons in exchange for credible security guarantees from nuclear powers.

The report concludes that Scenario B is viable only if the guarantees are considered enforceable.

1994.12.02

The President acknowledges the report and instructs intelligence agencies to monitor Russian military and political developments closely.

Phase 2: Early Warning Signals (1994–2008)

Pu01puppetmaster.jpg

In subsequent years intelligence monitoring identifies several patterns:

Analysts warn that these conflicts demonstrate a strategic method of RF:
1. Create or maintain unstable regions in neighboring states.
2. Use military presence to influence political outcomes.
3. Prevent integration of these states into Western institutions.

The assessment concludes that Ukraine may eventually face similar pressure.

2008.08.08, the Russian invasion into Georgia confirms this pattern

Intelligence briefings warn that the Georgian war could represent a precedent for future operations against other neighbors, including Ukraine.

Phase 3: Pre-Crisis Alert (2008–2014)

After the Georgian war, US intelligence agencies intensify monitoring of Russian military modernization and political strategy.

BackInTheUSSR.png
Back in the USSR

Analysts warn that:

  • Crimea has strategic value because of the Black Sea Fleet.
  • Political instability in Ukraine could create an opportunity for intervention.
  • Hybrid methods (covert troops, irregular forces, propaganda) may be used to obscure responsibility.

By early 2014 intelligence reports conclude that military intervention in Ukraine is highly probable.

Phase 4: Immediate Response (2014)

PuSanctions.jpeg
107253 original.jpg

When armed forces without insignia appear in Crimea in February 2014, the United States and the United Kingdom interpret the event as a violation of the Budapest memorandum.

Within days they take several coordinated actions.

Diplomatic action: An official warning is delivered to the Russian leadership stating that continued occupation of Ukrainian territory will trigger collective responses.

Legal action: The issue is immediately raised in the United Nations and international courts.

Military deterrence: NATO rapidly deploys naval and air units to the region as a defensive measure.

Economic pressure: Assets connected to the Russian state and key political figures are frozen.

These measures are presented not as escalation but as enforcement of previously agreed commitments.

Phase 5: Resolution Scenario

Under coordinated diplomatic, economic and military pressure the Russian leadership faces a strategic choice:

continue escalation with severe international consequences, or withdraw forces and negotiate.

In this simplified scenario the crisis ends with withdrawal of occupying forces and restoration of Ukrainian control over its territory.

Consequences

Mvn78red1.jpg

The rapid enforcement of the Budapest memorandum produces several effects:

  • international agreements gain credibility;
  • aggressive territorial revisionism becomes less attractive;
  • states that renounced nuclear weapons see that security guarantees can work.

Methodological note

This article describes a hypothetical scenario rather than a prediction or a historical claim.

Its purpose is to illustrate how intelligence analysis, diplomatic pressure, economic tools and military deterrence could theoretically interact in the enforcement of international security guarantees.

Notes by Editor

References

  1. ↑ https://www.belfercenter.org/event/ukraines-nuclear-disarmament-25-years-after-budapest-memorandum Ukraine’s Nuclear Disarmament: 25 Years After the Budapest Memorandum. Fri., Dec. 6, 2019 | 8:30am - 5:30pm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994 // Entry into force: 5 December 1994 by signature // Authentic texts: English, Russian and Ukrainian // Registration with the Secretariat of the United Nations: Ukraine, 2 October 2014

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/236/236-h/236-h.htm#link2H_4_0001 Rudyard Kipling. THE JUNGLE BOOK. Release Date: January 16, 2006 [EBook #236] Last Updated: October 6, 2016. .. Akela lifted his head again and said, “He has eaten our food. He has slept with us. He has driven game for us. He has broken no word of the Law of the Jungle.”// “Also, I paid for him with a bull when he was accepted. The worth of a bull is little, but Bagheera’s honor is something that he will perhaps fight for,” said Bagheera in his gentlest voice.// “A bull paid ten years ago!” the Pack snarled. “What do we care for bones ten years old?” ..

2015.11.10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA8kaGnf4ro Marco Rubio: Putin Is A Gangster. Published on Nov 10, 2015. Fox Business Debate 11.10.15.

2017.04.06. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1RSG2TeHAU Rubio: 'Putin is a war criminal' CNN Apr 6, 2017

2022.03.04. https://news.sky.com/story/russian-invasion-wouldnt-have-happened-if-ukraine-still-had-nuclear-weapons-ukrainian-political-adviser-says-12556811 Russian invasion 'wouldn't have happened' if Ukraine still had nuclear weapons, Ukrainian political adviser says Svitlana Zalishchuk, a foreign policy adviser to the Ukrainian deputy prime minister, told Sky News that Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons was "without a doubt" a mistake. By Alexa Phillips, news reporter Friday 4 March 2022 13:10, UK

2022.11.01. https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/why-vladimir-putin-would-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine Why Vladimir Putin Would Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.. The more the Kremlin has signalled its readiness to drop a nuclear bomb, the more the rest of the world has sought a reason to believe that it will not. By Masha Gessen November 1, 2022.

2023.03.17. https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. ..

2024.04.20. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/20/us-house-approves-61bn-aid-ukraine Robert Tait, Joan E Greve and Chris Michael. US House approves $61bn in military aid for Ukraine after months of stalling. Sat 20 Apr 2024 22.46 BST

2024.11.13. https://unn.ua/en/news/ukraine-may-restore-nuclear-status-if-us-aid-is-cut-off-the-times Ukraine may restore nuclear status if US aid is cut off - The Times Kyiv • UNN November 13 2024, 08:54 PM .. The Times reports on the possibility that Ukraine could develop a nuclear weapon in a few months if US military aid is cut. ..

2025.03.12. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/03/12/world/ukraine-security-nuclear-proliferation/ Lessons from Ukraine: Allies are fickle, nukes are forever// If Kyiv is left to capitulate, others will see security as stemming from power, not assurances. BY THOMAS O. FALK .. Mar 12, 2025

2025.04.21. https://global.espreso.tv/military-news-ukraine-could-technically-restore-nuclear-status-in-just-four-years-experts-say Ukraine could technically restore nuclear status in just four years, experts say// 21 april, 2025 monday 11:16

2025.07.01. https://united24media.com/latest-news/uk-must-help-ukraine-regain-nuclear-arms-retired-british-commander-says-8787 Roman Kohanets. UK Must Help Ukraine Regain Nuclear Arms, Retired British Commander Says May 31, 2025 16:42 Updated Jul 01, 2025 00:25.

Keywords

«Advices for Trump», «[[]]», «Alternative Math», «Annexation of Canada», «Annexation of Crimea», «Annexation of Greenland», «Annexation of Ichkeria», «Appeasing aggression», «Barack Obama», «Bill Clinton», «Budapest memorandum», «CIA», «CIA methodology‎‎», «ChatGPT», «Collapse of RF», «Collapse of USA», «Collapse of USSR», «Corruption», «Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism», «Designate Russia as terrorist state», «Donald Trump», «Donroe Doctrine», «Duration», «Dvizhuha», «Fascism», «Gedankenexperment», «Hybrid war», «Jinping», «Joe Biden», «Moscovia», «Mystic weakness», «New World Order», «Pahanat», «Propaganda», «Putin», «Putin world war», «Realpolitik», «Russian Agent Governs America», «Russian invasion into Ichkeria», «Russian invasion into Ukraine», «Russki mir», «Sabotage», «Small Victorious War», «Small victorious war», «TROI‎‎», «Trump as KGB agent», «Two concepts of collapse of the USSR‎‎», «USA», «Witkoff-Lavrov Pact Emulation», «Wreckage of Crimea»,

«Аннексия Ичкерии», «Аннексия Крыма», «Будапештский меморандум», «Гибридная война», «Движуха», «Ихтамнет», «Кисельные берега», «Коррупция», «Маленькая победоносная война», «Московия», «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут», «Мысленный эксперимент», «Новый Мировой Порядок», «Остов Крым», «Остров Крым», «От Аляски до Одесы», «Паханат», «Путинский план спецоперации», «Российское вторжение в Грузию», «Российское вторжение в Украину» «Саботаж», «Синий вертолёт», «Спецоперация», «[[]]», «Трамп Дональд Фредович», «Умиротворение агрессора», «Утопия», «Фашизм», «Эмуляция»,

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