Historic model

Historic model (историческая модель) is a scientific concept based on observed phenomena of history of (human) civilization.

Any historic model is supposed to be scientific concept. It can be constructed as an attempt to cover many observation with one of few simple hypothesis. It is not supposed to be oriented on interests of any political group.

Polytology

Construction of Historic models appears as antonym of term «politology».

Here, polytology means as art to talk about recent historic evens avoiding formation of any easy refutable concept.

At the polytologic slang, polytology is qualified as science .

The principal difference between Polytology refers to the Third TORI axiom.

Politologic article, speech, discussion has goal avoid sharp statements, that may happen to be just wrong.

Scientific concept, historic model just includes some sharp statements that allow both the verification and the refutation.

Fiction

The successful emulation can be considered as a Historic model.

The same refers to any kind of fiction, including so-called sci-fi.

Some futuristic guesses described in sci-fi happened to be siccessful forecasts.

However, the sci-fi, as any other kind of belletristic, has no need to mention observations that lead the author to his concept nor to consider possible observations that could refute the forecast.
The Historic model is expected to provide both: specification, which observations are explained by the model and how the model can be verified/refuted. Science works with refutable concepts.

Examples

Churchill about Russia

The Russian version of the emulation is entitled «Черчилль о России» .

This emulation was successful. The aim of the emulation was to analyse the veracity of the phrase about Stalin, which the Soviet fascist Andreeva Nina Aleksandrovna (Андреева Нина Александровна, 1938.10.12, Ленинград - 2020.07.24, Петербург) attributes to Winston Churchill; as well as that of other statements attributed to Churchill. The aposteriority of such statements is revealed and recognized .

The general criterion is simple:

If no link to the publication of the original full text by Winston Churchill is provided,
then the quote is not a cite, but a phantasy of the author.

If the publication provides the references used to guess the phrase that might be said at that moment,
then the phrase can be classified as emulation.

Duration

Likelyhood density (solid curve) for the mean duration \(\bar D\) to have value \(t\)

The primitive statistical model entitled «Duration» suggests the collapse of an empire after approximately \(\tilde D\) years since the separation of powers is eliminated at the level of Federal Law. On the examples with Napoleon France, Mussolini's Italy, Nazi Germany and Soviet Union, the mean value of Duration is estimated to be of order of 15 years. The likelihood density for the mean Duration \(\tilde D\) is estimated in terms of the Student Distribution; it is shown in figure at right with solid curve. The four blue marks refers to known cases (France, Italy, Germany and USSR) The two yellow marks refer to uncrown case, patin's Russia, that is not yet collapsed at the moment of editing of this article.

In this model the Putin's Russia is expected to collapse approximately after 15 years since the Nullification of the Russian Constitution (year 2020, Обнуление).

The collapse of Russia before y.2028 or its existence after year 2042 should be interpreted as refutation of the model. (Amazingly, the same dates are specified in utopias «Россия2028», and «Москва2042» («Moscow2042»)).

Election fraud

Churov comb, 2011

There are many evidences of the election fraud at Russia at least since beginning of century 21; both at the parliament elections and the presidential ones.

The simplest criterion refers to so-called «Churov comb» («Пила Чурова») and «Pamfilova peak» («Пик Памфиловой»).

Churov comb is statistically-significant excess of number of local election committees that have reported rutn-out and/or percentage of votes for Edro (Едро) or for putin corresoidinn to integer factor of a percent.
One example of the Churov comb (for year 2011) is shown in figure at right.

Pamfilova peak, 2016

The Pamfilova peak is statistically significant spike in the histogram of the distribution of polling stations by the percentage of votes cast for edro in the elections to Duma on 2016.09.18 in the Saratov Region of Russia..

The histogram with Pamfilova peak is shown in figure at right.
The spike takes place at 62% of vote for Edro.
The width of the spike is of order of 0.1%.

Observations of the Churov comb and the Pamfilova peak allow the simple model of the Election fraud at Moscovia.

First of all the hypothesis that toe ballots dropped by the electors are honestly counted, is resented, The statistical significance of the Churov comb snd the Pamfilova peak is too high. The spikes observed cannot happen due to an occasional coincidence. The organizers of the "election" at Russia are crimes - whenever they count one percent of fake ballots or 90 percent; In the most of cases at Russia, the procedure of counting of votes is imitation, performance; not a attempt to reveal the wishes of population of Russia. However, some information about the rushed of the population can be revealed from the official tables declared to be ossicial results of the election.

Assume that (1) in Russia there exist electors who honestly support the Russian unsurper Putin and his party Edro; support so strongly, they come to the election place.

Assume that (2) the votes of these honest supporters are carefully counted and contribute to the official results, id est, are added to the integer number of required percents ordered by the rulling mafia

Assume that (3) for the typical election place at Russia, of order of 10 thousand electors are registered

On the assumptions 1-3, the total about of putinists in century 21 can be estimated.

The with of spikes at the pictures above is of order of 0.1% . This mean, that the random spreading of number of votes is of order of ten At the Poisson distribution (for independent, non organized electors) of number of vires, the nans, that of order of hundred electors vote for putin and his parry; they count of oder of one percent of the electors. (Other ballots in favor of the pahanat are fake, they are shrouded by the corrupted electoral committees.)

This gives estate of the total amount of putinists, of order of one million.

In the peaceful life, this amount is sufficient to keep the power of the usutper: even a ten thousand state terrorists armed with tanks and machine guns can murder many millions peaceful protesters. But it is not a a case of a full-scale war; one million of orks is not suffudint to seise a neighbor country; and even worse: while the most of putiists try to infer the neighbor country, a division of a ten thousands of motivated anti-putinists can seise Moscow kill/arrest the usurer and is crime partners.

График спецоперации

\( L = 0.8 d^2\)

\( L = 0.6 d^2\)

graphic of Russia-Ukraine war

since year 2022, the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war unfolds following the graphic (Специальная военная операция идет в строгом соответствии с графиком) . This graphic is shown in figure at right.
In the primitive approximation, the number \(L\) of demilitarized and denazified Russian orks is extrapolated as quadratic function of number \(d\) of days since the beginning of year 2022. Up to year 2024, the Russian military loss remain in vicinity of curves
\( L = 0.8 d^2\) and
\( L = 0.6 d^2\)

No other graphic of the Russia-Ukraine war is found at the Russian publications.

The graphic of the Russia-Ukraine war can be combined with the model or the election fraud above.
If the total amount of putinists is estimated of order of a million, then, the most of the Russian cannon fodder is expected to be spent to year 2025, and the Rissian invasion into Ukraine stops for the «force-major» reason: lack of soldiers who agree to ve used as cannon fodder.

It sill be interesting too compare this estimate with the future publications.

Global warming

Approximations of the «Global Temperature»

Since century 20m there is a lot of bzz about so-called «Global warming».

The first hypothesis is, that since century 20, the mean temperature at the surface of the Earth, «Global Temperature» increase, and the rise is dangerous for the Human civilization.

Usually the alarming publications do not include any desctiption of the model, that could be used to verify or to reject the concept.

Also, the second hypothesis is suggested, that the Global warming is caused by the Human activity, and reduction of consumption of the conventional fuel (gasoline, kerosine, diesel, etc.) may stop the warming.

In order to make both hypothesis refutable, the simple model is suggested.
The growth of the Global Temperature (black curve) is attributed to big wars and approximated with the following function:

\( \displaystyle z (y) = -0.065 - 0.002\ (y-1980) + \sum_{n=1}^8 0.107\ \Big(1.+\tanh\big(0.2\ (y\!-\!Y_n)\big)\Big) \)

Here
\(Y_1=1914\) , World War I
\(Y_2=1939\) , World War II
\(Y_3=1979\) , Soviet invasion into Afghanistan
\(Y_4=1994\) , Chechen War 1
\(Y_5=1999\) , Chechen War 2
\(Y_6=2008\) , Russian invasion into Georgia
\(Y_7=2014\) , beginning of Russian invasion into Ukraine; Annexation of Crimea and occupation of Ordlo
\(Y_8=2022\) , Russian total war (Спецоперация) against Ukraine

\(y\) is time measured in years

This zpproxination is shown with blue curve.

For comparison, the Green curve and the red curves show the two quadratic («Alarmic») approximations.

The model takes into account only those wars that are supposed to darken the snow and affect the mean reflectivity of the Earth surface.

On this model, one may expect the Global warming to stop in year 2030, is the Anti-Putin coalition succeeds to stop the Putin world war, say, in year 2025 and to prevent new big wars.

However, in this model, the Global Temperature is expected to continue increasing if new big war (some kind of Bigpuf) happens after the putin world war.

The model above is very primitive and deserve serious critics. It is loaded because the alarmists that warn about the global warming usually do not present any model that should allow the refutation.

Combining the models, one may expect, that in future, the Global Temperature remain, roughly between upset and lowest forces in the graphic.

The most practical question about the Global warning can be formulated in the following way:

(1) Since which year, in the most of lands between the tropic and the Arctic Circle, no heating of homes will be necessary?

(2) Since which year, the northern sea way between the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait becomes free form ice and available for the cargo ships?

(3) Since which year, the outdoor farming at Antarctica be possible?

The articles about the Global warning do not answer such questions.

Basing on the models above, none of (1),(2),(3) is expected to happen at least during century 21.

Significance

The significance of the examples, conjectures above is not so high.
For example, it is got so high as conjecture about existence and uniqueness of the natural tetration suggested to the mathematical society in 2009 and it is not so high as the conjecture about the fundamental limit of power scaling of the thin disk lasers .

In physics and mathematic, the experiment is much less expensive, than a experiment in a history.
The experimental testing of possibility of construction of communism (in the first meaning of this term) during century 20 costed of order of 100 millions of the human lives, see «Большевики убили почти всех».

As a science, the History becomes possible with invention of internet, practically, since century 21.
Up to century 20, the (wrong) opinion “History does not tolerate the subjunctive mood” is popular («история не знает сослагательного наклонения» ).
However, no logical consideration nor logical description is possible without the subjunctive mood - as the programming becomes difficult without operator «if».
This predetermines the delay of historic science in compare to natural sciences.

In the natural science, a hundred concepts should be considered, and only few of them happen to be useful (at least for developing science). However, if some of the concepts above happen to have sense, the method they are obtained can be useful in developing of science - for example, to compare the significance of various mechanisms of history, in order to take into account the most significant among them, to keep the model simple and efficient.

References

Keywords

«Annexation of Ukraine», «Budapest memorandum», «Corruption», «[[]]», «[[]]», «[[]]»,

References

Keywords

«[[]]», «TORI axioms», «[[]]»,