Fedotovo Airbase

Moscovia

Fedotovo Airbase

ValdaiCluster

Pskov Airbase

Moscow

Kazan Airbase

Санитарная зона

Engels Airbase

Kazkhstan

Ukraine

Fedotovo Airbase and Санитарная зона

        
        
        
        
        
        
  

Fedotovo Airbase and vicinities

        
        
        
        
        
        
  

Fedotovo Airbase, zoomin at 59.1914,39.1298

Fedotovo Airbase (Авиабаза Федотово) is military airstrip at Vologodskaya oblast, Moscovia (see the map at right).

The same airbase is denoted with term «Kipelovo Airbase» («Авиабаза Кипелово» )

During the Putin world war, the Fedotovo Airbase is legitimate military target.

After the Rissian invasion into Ukraine, during the Russia-Ukraine war, the Fedotovo Airbase is supposed to be demilitarized and denazified at the transfer of hostilities to aggressor territory.
This seems to be the only way to fullfil the guarantees specified in the Budapest memorandum.
Sitizen, residents and visitors of Russia have reason not to approach the Fedotovo Airbase in order not to happen in a wrong place at a wrong time. The same refer to other Russian strategic and military objects, especially within the Санитарная зона mentioned in the first map.

Local

Address: Вологодский р-н Вологодская обл., Россия

Coordinates:
59.2365,39.1598 Rilroad junction
59.2354,38.4893 Sheksna dam
59.2305,39.1935 L59.23053z39.1935 not specified
59.2259,39.1627 Railroad stop
59.2258,39.1610 Fuel storage
59.2169,39.1256 North landing beacon
59.2159,39.1678 electric substation, Электрическая подстанция«Кипелово»110-10кВ
59.2121,39.1360 Arsenal
59.2008,39.1445 Arsenal
59.1964,39.1405 Fuel storage
59.1941,39.1412 L59.1941z39.1412 Not specified; perhaps, underground arsenal
59.1914,39.1298 Warplane parking
59.1845,38.8095 Vh25594 (Вч 25594)
59.1650,39.1211 South landing beacon
59.1464,38.5292 Gas pipe station
59.1377,38.5258 L59.1377z38.5258 not specified
59.0973,38.6277 Arsenal Vh25594 (Вч 25594)

At the google map above, many these objects are marked with the same label «Вологодский район», and few are "recognized" as «Шекснинский район».

Sanitary Zone

During the Putin world war and, especially, since the beginning of the Russian invasion into Ukraine, The Fedotovo Airbase is legitimate military target - as well as all other Russian strategic and/or military objects:
Russian weapon factories,
Russian electric plants that feed these factories,
Bridges and tunnels used to deliver the production to the occupational army,
Russian oil factories, oil terminals and reservoires that supply the Russian army with fuel,
Russian warships and submarines and Russian ports that maintain these warships and submarines,
Russian missile launch systems and arsenals,
Russian warplanes and Russian airbases designed or adopted for these warplanes.

All the Russian objects mentioned are expected to be demilitarized and denazified in order to stop the Russian aggression and to fulfill the guarantee of the Budapest memorandum.
Up to year 2024, no suggestion is found to fulfill these guaranties in any more civilized way.
(Similar case takes place during the World War II, see «I bombed Dresden».)

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion into Ukraine (2014.02.20) and annexation of Crimea, during at least 10 years, some politicians at the USA and the UK still think (longer than 10 years) on very important questions:

1. «What do we care for memorandum signed many years ago?»

2. If the USA and the UK decide to fulfill their guaranties on the Budapest memorandum
then how soon should this happen after the beginning of the aggression?
Within 10 years? Within 12 years? Within 20 years? During century 21?

While the people of civilized countries search for the answers on these questions, the help to Ukraine from other countries of the Anti-Putin coalition is moderate; it is not sufficient for the most important tasks:
A. "Cover the sky" above the Ukraine, to save Ukrainian cities from the bombing.
B. Demilitarize and denazify the Russian warplanes and the airbases used by the warplanes to launch bombs and missiles to Ukraine.
C. Either push out from Ukraine or to demilitarize/denazify all the Russian orks at territory of Ukraine (within internationally recognized borders).

While Americans and British think on questions (1) and (2) above, the Ukrainians have not sufficient amount of the air defense missiles (in order to «cover the sky») nor sufficient long-rage heavy missiles (in order to demilitarize and to denazify the Russian airbases and the bunkers of the Russian top military officials). Hense, the ground operation at the Russian territory becomes necessary.

The biggest (since year 2014) ground military operation at territory at territory of Russia begins in year 2024. Thousands Russian troops are enclosed without suply in so-called Glushovsli Enclave (Глушковский Котёл) with demilitarization and denazification of the Glushkov Bridge (Глушковский Мост) and other brides across river Seim.
As maximum, the ground operation should create the so-called «Sanitary Zone» («Санитарная зона»), see the first map. To year 2024, the Sanitary Zone is expect to be bonded, roughly, by the line between the following places:
Border with NATO,
Pskov Airbase (Авиабаза Псков) (and the Osrov Airbaze (Авиабаза Остров, «Гарнизон Веретье»))
ValdaiCluster (Валдайский Кластер)
Fedotovo Airbase (Авиабаза Федотово)
Kazan Airbase (Авиабаза Казань)
Engels Airbase (Авиабаза Энгельс)
Border with Kazakhstan

However, this is very rough estimate and very rough forecast. The Sanitary zone may include also
Olenya Airbase (Авиабаза Оленья) at Kolsky peninsula and
Uralvagonzavod (Уралвагонзавод, Russian monopolist in manufacturing of heavy battle tanks) at Tagil.

Creation of the «Sanitary zone» is expected to save at least some Ukrainian cities from destruction by the Russian bombers. To year 2024 Bahmuth, Popasna, Mariupol (see «Россия полностью уничтожила Мариуполь») and many other Ukrainian cities are already destroyed by the Russian nazis.

It will be interesting to see:
Will the «Sanitary zone» («Санитарная зона») reach the Fedotovo Airbase?
Or the Russian dictator withdraws his troops from Ukraine earlier (before all the Rissian orks are completely demilitarized and denazified)?

In the simplest interpretation, the Putin's plan of the war («Путинский план спецоперации») against Ukraine implied the total destruction of Russia and murdering of the most of Russians in sigh a way that the dictator and his closest war crime accomplices become relative safe (at least with respect to riots) in one of his personal bunkers (see «ValdaiCluster»). The Eden conditions for the war criminals are arranged there, see «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» (In Russian).
In this model, the Fedotovo Airbase and other Russian strategic and military objects within the Sanitary zone are expected to be completely demilitarized and denazified.

Up to year 2024, no other way to fulfill the guarantees of the Budapest memorandum is found in the open access domain of internet.

The two hisotric models are suggested to estimate when the demilitarization of the Fedotovo Airbase may happen.

Likelyhood density of duration

One estimate refers to the statistic model «Duration».
In this model, an empire collapses after approximately 15 years since the nullification (at the level of a Federal Law) of separation of powers. For Russia, the nullification (Обнуление) happened in year 2020. The corresponding likelihood density of Duration (for Russia, in years since y.2020) is shown in figure at right.
In this model, the collapse of RF is expected to happen approximately in year 2035 (not earlier than year 2028 and not later than year 2042). This collapse may happen together with demilitarization and denazification of Fedotovo Airbase.

\( L = 0.8 d^2\)

\( L = 0.6 d^2\)

График спецоперации

Another estimate refers to the empiric «Graphic of the special military operation» («График спецоперации», see picture at right)
and to the estimate of the total number of putinists from publications about the Election frauds (see picture of the Churov comb below).

Since y.2022, the Russia-Ukraine war (so called «спецоперация») advances following the graphic: «Специальная военная операция идет в строгом соответствии с графиком». This graphic («График спецоперации») is shown in figure at right.
The total amount \(L\) of Russian orks demilitarized in Ukraine is extrapolated as quadratic function of number \(d\) of days since the beginning of year 2022. The two extrapolations are shown:
\( L = 0.8 d^2 ~ \) (blue curve)
\( L = 0.6 d^2 ~ \) (Yellow curve)
To year 2024, the estimate by minfin.com.ua (dark thin curve) remains between the blue and yellow curves.

Churov comb, 2011.12.04.Election

On the other hand, the evidence of the Election fraud at Russia allow to estimate the total amount of putinists. The width of maxima at the Churov comb and width od the Pamfilova peak («Пик Памфиловой)») indicate that of order of a million Russians vote for Russian dictator putin and his party «Edro»; other votes for these terrorists are surplused by the corrupted election committees.
The combination of these two estimates suggests the approximately in year 2025, the Russian dictator will run his war without the cannon fodder; his orks will be spent out.
This gives an estimate of year of demilitarization and denazification of Fedotovo Airbase.

It will be interesting to see, when the Fedotovo Airbase will be deniitnrised and denazified;
which of the two estimate will be close to the future observations:
year 2028, lower bound of the first estimate («Duration») or
year 2025, second estimate from the Churov comb and the «график спецоперации».
If at least one of these two models is confirmed, then the successful method can be used for description (and prediction) of other similar historic events.
In such a way, publications about the Fedotovo Airbase and their analysis have the scientific interest.

Gallery

Many artists express their view on the Russian aggression and the possible sequences. Few examples are collected in the gallery below.

In English

Putin organizes the «spiritualistic seance» and orders the medium to summon Stalin's ghost. The ghost appears. Putin asks:
Iosif Vissarionovich, I need your help. The enemy is advancing in the Kursk region. What should I do?
Stalin: Do the same as I did.
Putin: Namely, what?
Stalin: First, send more Ukrainians there. Then ask the British and Americans to give them more tanks and warplanes.

After the failure with the spiritualists, Putin organizes a session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and asks his partners to help restore control on the border.
The CSTO members agree to help to restore the border to the state it was in when the CSTO was created. It is decided to begin with the Roksky Tunnel and the Kerch Channel.

In Russian

Editor failed to translate some sentences from Russian to English. So, they remain in Russian here.

Российские пропагандисты обсуждают, как лучше продолжать СВО:
Первый: Надо разбомбить им аэродромы, нефтебазы и электростании. Сделаем из Украины санитарную зону. Останутся без света, без воды, без канализации; у них начнутся эпидемии и они убегут в Европу...
Второй: Да, это правильное решение! Нечего с ними церемонится!
Третий: Я в общем-то согласен, но у меня вопрос: а что, если они так же нас разбомбят?
Первый: Ну подожди, а нас то за что?

Хватит курить, где попало. Курите там, где ещё не попало.

До москалей начинает доходить, только когда до них начинает долетать.

Warning

Publications about the Fedotovo Airbase are collected and analyzed in TORI with scientific goals. One of these goals is qualification of sources of information and revealing of propaganda.

The blood feud is not element of the set of these goals.

The interpretation suggested is not an appeal to the extrajudicial execution of relatives of the staff of the Fedotovo Airbase. More civilized methods to deal with accomplices of the putin regime (see «пособник путинского режима» ) are considered in articles «Hague», «Nuremberg-2», «Payback», «Ст.353 УК РФ».

The interpretation above is not an attempt to provoke a hate with respect to servicemen of the Russian army.
Russian writer Leo Tolstoy shows that word «hate» is not an adequate term to qualify the feeling caused by activity of Russian soldiers at the occupied/annexed land .

Федотово
59.1914,39.1298

Bavovna

2014.09.08. protest

The interpretation suggested is not a suggestion for the next bavovna (see picture at right) at the transfer of hostilities to aggressor territory.
The Editor is not supposed to teach the representative of the Anti-Putin coalition, in which sequence and how the Russian strategic and military objects should be demilitarized and denazified for the fastest fulfillment of guarantees of Budapest memorandum.
The Budapest memorandum does not put any restriction on methods that may be applied (and should be applied) to a country that has signet that memorandum but brutally break its conditions. In this sense, any weapon can be used against the aggressor.

Even in century 21, many people believe (or pretend that they believe) that the aggressor can be stopped in a more civilized way.
In the case of the putin world war, they had 10 years (or even 16 years, taking into account the Russian invasion into Georgia) to do it «in a more civilized way». The result is negative. Such a behavior is discussed in article «I bombed Dresden».

But Editor can help to answer the question «What do we care for memorandum signed many years ago?» mentioned above. For those who sympathize with the adepts of Shere Khan tiger and Tabaqui jackal , the explanations are provided by Солонин Марк Семёнович and Майкл Наки (in Russian).
The history of the two world wars indicate that attempts to applause an aggressor lead to a big war.

Editor is not smarter than Nevill Chamberlain of Jake Sullivan.
So, Editor rejects the hypothesis that the American and British politicians do not know what the appeasement of the aggressor leads to wars.
The alternative concept is that some politicians during 10 years slow-down the fulfillment of guarantees of the Budapest memorandum intentionally, getting benefits from the big war they provoke.
No other concept is found to explain why the offees at the USA and the UK wait ten years with fulfillment of guarantees specified in the Budapest memorandum. If you bring a link to such «another» concept to Editor, the «another» concept will be considered.

However, Editor keeps his right to call things with their proper names, to ask the sharp questions, to suggest the historic models and to compare their predictions with more recent publications and other observations.

References

Keywords

«Annexation of Crimea», «Bavovna», «Budapest memorandum», «Corruption», «Demilitarization», «Genazification», «Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism», «Designate Russia as terrorist state», «Fascism», «Fedotovo Airbase», «Legitimate military target», «Moscovia», «Payback», «Putin world war», «[[]]», «Russian invasion into Ukraine», «Russki mir», «Sanitary zone», «Transfer of hostilities to aggre», «Vh06797»,

«А нас то за что», «Авиабаза Федотово», «[[]]», «Аннексия Крым», «Бавовна», «[[]]», «Вч 06797», «[[]]», «Демилитаризация», «Денацификация», «Легитимная цель», «Московия», «[[]]», «Перенос боевых действий на территорию страны агрессора», «Путинская мировая война», «Российское вторжение в Украину», «[[]]»,