Kestus

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Kestus may mean Duration (Дурация) and refer to the estimate of duration of an autocratic regime since it de-ure eliminates the principle of separation of powers. The four historic examples show, that typical values of duration are between 10 and 20 years. Within this hypothesis the "Russian Federation" is expected to collapse approximately in year 2036, plus-minus 4 years.

Here, I present the English version of the Abstract, the Estonian version of the Summary and the English version of the description of my hypothesis, conjecture.
They use the same list of references.

Abstract

The basic requirements for the scientific research (TORI axioms) are applied to the historic events. Analogies of events of centuries 18-21 are considered. The concept of historic forecasts is suggested, that implies the search for the quantitative parameters that can be used as criteria of similarity of various countries.
One of the parameters is called Duration. In this article, Duration is time interval, measured in years, since year then, at some Empire, the “principle separation of powers” is eliminated from the legislation at the level of federal law, until the year, when the Empire collapses. The four examples refer to the Napoleon’s France, the Mussolini’s Italy, the Nazi Germany and the Bolshevistic USSR. For them, the duration is estimated to be 13, 19, 12 and 14 years respectively. Conjecture is formulated, that any empire collapses after 16 years plus-minus 4 years since the “principle of separation of powers” is abolished by the federal law.
Way to check the conjecture is suggested: 2020.01.11, the modification of the Constitution of Russia eliminates the “principle separation of powers”, legalizing the lifetime ruling of the same usurper. Within the conjecture, the colonial system of the Russian Federation (RF) is expected to collapse in year approximately 2036. Collapse of RF before year 2028 or its remaining as autocracy after year 2042 will be considered as refutation of the conjecture. Importance of this example for the Baltic countries is discussed.

Kokkuvõte

Ajalooliste sündmuste statistilised hinnangud

Otsin raamistikku ajaloosündmuste analüüsimiseks. See peaks vastama üldistele teaduslikele nõuetele:
1. piiratud kohaldatavus;
2. Võimalus kinnitada (kui see on õige)
3. võime ümber lükata (kui see on vale)
4. Sisemiste vastuolude puudumine
5. Võrdlus juba aktsepteeritud mudelite, teooriatega (tolerantne suhtumine teistesse mõistetesse)
6. lihtsus
Nendele kuuele põhimõttele viitamiseks kasutan terminit "TORI aksoomid" [1]. TORI aksioome peeti kasulikuks füüsikas ja matemaatikas [2], kuid mitte ajaloos: "Die Geschichte kennt kein Wenn" [3][4]. Käesolevas artiklis rakendan TORI aksioome ajalooteaduses.

Siin iseloomustan ajaloolisi ajastuid, impeeriume ühe parameetri järgi. See parameeter on selliste sündmuste ajavahemik:
1. De jure võimude lahususe põhimõtte kaotamine.
2. Impeeriumi kokkuvarisemine.
Tähistan seda intervalli tähega \(D\) (Duration, Kestus). Selle parameetri väärtused on erinevate impeeriumide puhul sarnased. Pean näiteid möödunud sajanditest: Prantsusmaa, Itaalia, Saksamaa ja NSV Liit.

Mõõtsin seda parameetrit aastates. Ümardan aastate arvu suurema täisarvuni. Hinnangud on ligikaudsed; seega pole vaja aega täpsemalt mõõta. Pange tähele, et taimer ei lülitu sisse diktatuuri kehtestamise aastal, kuid aastal kehtestas föderaalseadus autokraatia.

France

1802.08.04, Prantsusmaal kuulutas senat Napoleon Bonaparte'i eluaegseks "peakonsuliks"[5]. See de jure välistab võimude lahususe põhimõtte.

1815.11.20, "Traité de Paris" tähistab Napoleoni Prantsuse impeeriumi kokkuvarisemist. [6]

\( D=1815-1802=13 \)

Italy

1928.05.17, "Riforma elettorale" (poliitilise esindatuse reform) [7] toimub Itaalias. Benito Mussolini saab "seaduslik" diktaator. Tosin aastat tundub, et ta on edukas; siis ebaõnnestub.

1947.12.27, kuulutatud “Costituzione della repubblica Italiana” [8].

\( D=1947-1928=19 \)

Germany

1933.03.24 võetakse Saksamaal vastu seadus, mis kaotab Saksamaa põhiseaduse ülimuslikkuse [9]. Adolf Hitler saab "seaduslik" diktaator. Esialgu tundub, et ta on edukas, kuid siis lüüakse.

1945.05.08, Saksamaal variseb kokku [10].

\(D=1945-1933=12 \)

USSR

1977.10.07 võetakse NSV Liidus vastu nn "Brežnevi põhiseadus" [11]. See põhiseadus sätestab seadusandlikult NLKP valitseva staatuse (artikkel 6) ja riigi ülimuslikkuse kodanikuõiguste ees (artikkel 39) [12].

1991, NSV lakkab olemast [13].

\(D=1991-1977=14\)

Hüpotees

Üldistan oma tähelepaneku järgmise hüpoteesi vormis:

Võimude lahutamise föderaalseadusest kõrvaldamise korral, variseb aurokraatia kokku 16 ± 4 aastaga.

Üritan ülaltoodud hüpoteesi rakendada 21. sajandi sündmustele.

Russia

Üritan ülaltoodud oletust rakendada 21. sajandi sündmustele.

2020.03.11, Venemaal on põhiseadus pehmelt öeldes "muudetud" [14]. See "modifikatsioon" välistab "võimude lahususe" Venemaal; sellest ajast alates on Vene autokraatia muutunud "legitiimseks", nagu on kirjas põhiseaduses [15].

Eespool kirjeldatud kontseptsiooni kohaselt võib eeldada Vene impeeriumi (Vene Föderatsioon ja selle okupeeritud alad) kokkuvarisemist umbes 2036. aastal.

Venemaa lagunemist enne 2028. aastat või selle olemasolu pärast 2042. aastat võib tõlgendada selle hüpoteesi ümberlükkamisena.

Speculation

Alustades kõige varasematest dokumentidest inimtsivilisatsiooni kohta, on teateid prohvetitest, kes pakkusid erinevaid, tavaliselt pessimistlikke prognoose inimkonna, riikide, rahvaste arengu kohta. Selliseid prognoose kirjeldatakse eelkõige religioossetes dokumentides [16][17].

Rakendatud vaatenurgast on sõdade ja revolutsioonide ennustused huvipakkuvad, et kodanikud saaksid ohtlikust riigist eelnevalt lahkuda ja vältida genotsiidi. Paljud Venemaa elanikud, kes kartsid massiterrori, lahkusid aastatel 1917-1920 NSV Liidust. Nende otsus tundub tark: nad põgenesid enne, kui bolševikud tapsid peaaegu kõik ausad kaasmaalased, umbes 10^8 kaaskodanikku.
Sarnaseid nähtusi täheldati tosin aastat hiljem Saksamaal; ja paljud sakslased, eriti juudid, tundsid 1930. aastate alguses lähenevat katastroofi ja said lahkuda.

Prognoosi näide on esitatud raamatus "Kas Nõukogude Liit eksisteerib kuni 1984. aastani" [18]. Kuid selles uuringus on lugejal raske arvata, miks osutus prognoos täpselt 1984., mitte 1980 või 1990; kommentaarid viitavad raamatule "Orwell, 1984" [19].

21. sajandil pakuvad paljud autorid lühisõnumeid, et Venemaa revolutsioon (kokkuvarisemine) algab "sel aastal" või "järgmisel aastal" või "aasta pärast", täpsustamata, miks just "see" või miks täpselt "järgmine"? Selliseid ennustusi võib leida märksõnade "Распад России" või "Распад Российской Федерации" alt. Selle kirjutamise ajal (2020) ei ole paljud neist teoks saanud.

Tuleb rõhutada, et selle uuringu peamine eesmärk ei ole prognoos ise, vaid selle genereerimise meetod. Mitte “tõese”, “õige” prognoosi genereerimine, vaid prognoosi genereerimine, mis on teaduslik kontseptsioon, rahuldab “TORI aksioome” [1]. Samas näitab üldine usk sel viisil üles ehitatud teadmiste (st teaduslike teadmiste) tõhususse, et sellised ennustused peaksid olema tõhusamad kui tavaliselt kirjanduses leiduvad.

Konkreetne näide Venemaa kokkuvarisemisest 21. sajandil peaks olema oluline Venemaa naabritele ja eriti Balti riikidele. Kokkuvarisemise korral hakkavad Venemaalt pärit migrandid otsima varjupaika tsiviliseeritud riikidest. Need võivad olla miljoneid. See ületab oluliselt Euroopa riikide võimet neid vastu võtta. Vähemalt tuleks Euroopa ühiskonda selle ohu eest hoiatada.

Introduction

Since the beginning of the Human civilization, the attempts to predict future are observed. Starting with the earliest documents, there are reports about prophets offering various, often pessimistic forecasts of the development of mankind, countries, peoples. In particular, such forecasts are described in religious documents [16][17].

Usually, the historic predictions cannot be qualified as scientific: the concept does not specify, why it is more accurate, more consistent than other predictions. In this paper, I formulate the problem of scientific prediction. Then, I suggest an example of such a prediction, way of its verification and way of its refutation.

In history, the most important and practical are predictions of wars and revolutions. Having the accurate forecast, the people can escape, flee from the dangerous region, to avoid genocide. I do science, not politics; here I do not consider the case, when the prediction of an event can prevent it.

Many residents of Russia, fearing the mass terror, left the USSR in 1917-1925. They expected the red terror to get even worse. Their decision was wise; many emigrants fled before the Bolsheviks killed most of the honest compatriots, around of 10^8 people.

Similar phenomena were observed a dozen years later in Germany. In early 1930s, many Germans, especially Jews, felt the impending catastrophe and emigrated. Some of them gone to the UK and to the USA; they helped to make weapon that had been used to crash the nazi Germany.

In 1969, Andrei Amalrik suggests the forecast about future of the USSR [18]; he expects the Soviet Union to collapse during century 20. Perhaps, the Soviet administration knew about approaching collapse of the USSR; the Soviet veterans feared, that the spreading of the warning by Amalrik may prevent the collapse. In order to keep the approaching collapse of the USSR in secret from the Soviet people, the Soviet offees (KGB) has prohibited distribution of warning [18] and had punished the author. The approaching collapse of the USSR seems to be a top secret of the Soviet offees.

The persecution of Andrei Amalrik by the Soviet offees indicates, that his forecast is serious research. On the other hand, it is difficult to qualify as scientific. In particular, it is difficult to guess, why namely 1984 year is mentioned in the title. Only from the comments one gets, that the Author refers to the book by George Orwell "1984" [19].

Similar question can be attributed to many other forecasts; in particular, to prediction of collapse, revolution in the Russian Federation (RF) during century 21. The disruption of RF to many independent countries by the religious, ethic, ethnic, climatic or geologic criteria is expected.
Several authors indicate, that the revolution will begin “this year”, or “next year”, without explanation, why namely “in this year” or why namely “next year”: Why the year indicated is so specific? Why did not it happen during the past year?
Since the 21st century, such predictions can be found with keywords “Collapse of the Russian Federation”, or "Распад РФ", “Распад России” or “Распад Российской Федерации”. At the time of this writing (2021), many of such forecasts already happen to be just wrong.

In this paper I suggest the formal method for generating forecasts, so that any colleague, who agrees with the initial hypotheses, comes to the same estimate. Then I consider the hypothesis, conjecture, that seems to me most formal and simple.

It should be emphasized, that the main goal of this study is not the specific forecast itself (for example, that of collapse of RF), but the method of its generation. Not just the generation of a “true”, “correct” forecast, but generation of a forecast, which is a scientific concept. Such a concept should satisfy the following requirements:
1. Limited applicability;
2. Possibility to confirm (if correct)
3. Ability to refute (if incorrect)
4. Absence of internal inconsistencies
5. Comparison with already accepted models, theories (tolerant attitude to other concepts)
6. Simplicity
I denote these six requirements with term “TORI axioms”. These axioms had been collected from various sources for analysis of results about optics and quantum mechanics, id est "Laser Science". Then they happen to be useful in general physics [1] and mathematics [2], but there were doubts about historical science: often, the history has been considered as non-logical science, where the motivated reasoning prevails over the formal logics; even so important logical operator "if" has been believed to be not appropriate in the historic research: "History knows no if" (Die Geschichte kennt kein Wenn) [3][4]. In the vulgar interpretation, the non-logical approach to the historical science is often expressed also with sentences "history does not tolerate the subjunctive mood", "История не терпоит сослагательново наклонения". Such an approach is ideal for propaganda, motivated reasoning; the non-polite then term "female logic" [20] is also used in the similar meaning.

The scientific forecast, as a scientific concept, should show, what phenomena it describes, how it can be confirmed, verified, and how it can be rejected, refuted (if wrong), and how is relates with already published forecasts. The general belief in the efficiency of knowledge built in this way (I mean, the scientific knowledge) indicates, that such predictions should be more effective than the others, found in the literature.

Analogies are used to generate forecasts. Human history is looked for events that
(a) in some sense are similar to each other and are followed by the similar results and
(b) in some sense are similar to what is observed at the time of generation of the forecast.

The criterion of “similarity” is key point in such a modeling. I believe, the criterion (and the forecast) should be based on the "TORI axioms". Initially, the "TORI axioms" [1] had been suggested to classify, evaluate the articles about quantum mechanics and optics ("Laser science"); then the axioms happened to be useful in math [21]. Now I use the same approach in the historical science. Amount of wrong publications in History is not less, than that in Physics; so, I expect this tool to be useful here too. In particular, such an approach helps to avoid the irrefutable statements.
The main idea is: I formulate a short, simple hypothesis, scientific concept, and try to refute it comparing with observations. If the attempts to refute the concept fail, it can be considered a conjecture; the conjecture can be presented to colleagues.

Many researchers, who lived and/or got education in the USSR, had completely wrong perception of History. There was no historic science in the USSR; the state officials, “offees”, Soviet teachers gave Sovetism, propaganda instead of history. Sovetism appears as a religion, and it is full of internal contradictions (and, of course, contradicts the direct observations). The Soviet teachers could not answer even elementary questions about the topic of the lesson; the Soviet teachers were angry with students who asked the sharp questions, revealing the contradictions.
Since the collapse of the USSR, the History is improving in several countries, released from the Soviet occupation. The collection and systematization of historic concepts becomes possible. So, I look for such a systematization. For me, it means elaboration of short concept, that describes the historical events with one or few parameters, but still provide some reasonable, verifiable and refutable predictions. So, I search for such parameters.

I had considered various parameters, that characterize the historical events: dates and ways of creation of an autocratic empire, amount of its victims, lifetime of the dictators and their dictatorship, channels of collapse of Empires, etcetera. In the most of cases, there seems to be no simple rules in the distribution of the parameters. Each era, epoch, each country has its own face, that is not so similar to others. I was about to give up, but I found one parameter, that happens to be well reproducible for various countries. In certain sense, this article is dedicated to this parameter; I denoted id with term "duration" or with single character D. Anticipating the following deduction, I announce its meaning.

The parameter D refers to some specific change of legislation of an empire before its collapse; it appears as indication, that the empire goes to collapse soon. Some kind of the “Cheyne-Stokes respiration” as an euphemism, as term used by doctors to inform the colleagues, that the tyrant is killed, that be is already dead, but his criminal partners, his murderers do not allow the doctors to say this explicitly. However, I am interested not so much in analysis on some specific usurper, but in the analogy with events in any tyranny, in any empire. I try to understand, how to identify the analogy of the “Cheyne-Stokes respiration” in the case of any empire, and how long it may last since such an indication.

Here I consider only one criterion, which seems to be simplest, most formal and not dependent on the personal preferences of the researcher. I consider cases of adoption of a federal law that secures the leading and guiding role of one state body and, in fact, the uncontrolled power of the chairman, director, gensek, Fuhrer, Duce or any other permanent leader, autocrat. I mean, the “legalization” of the usurpation of the superior political power, that has already occurred, id est, the official (at the level of a federal law) elimination of the principle of separation of powers.

Below, I refer to events of past centuries: Nomination of the consul Napoleon Bonapart as lifetime ruler in France (1802), as well as adoption of fascist laws in Italy (1928), in Germany (1933), in the USSR (1977). Then I trace, how long after that the tyranny lasts; how long the empire keeps its sovereignty and/or the territorial integrity.
The common feature is that the already built-in autocracy gets the “legalization”: the principle of separation of powers is eliminated from the federal law of the country. On the base of comparison, I suggest the hypothesis, the conjecture: Since adoption of the federal law, that de-jure eliminates the principle of “separation of powers”, the empire lasts of order of 16 years before its collapse.
Then I suggest a way to confirm the conjecture (or to refute it, if it is wrong), tracing events in Russian Federation (RF) of century 21: The principle of separation of powers is eliminated by vandalization of the Russian Constitution in 2020; hence, within the conjecture, the collapse of RF is expected to happen, roughly, in 2036. The disintegration of RF before 2028 or its remaining after 2042 should be considered as refutation of the conjecture.
Then I explain why, from my point of view, the example of the Russian Federation is important for the neighbors and, especially, for the Baltic countries. That part is not so original: many authors have already painted apocalyptic pictures of the disintegration of the Russian Federation. I did not plan to describe that in this article, but the Editor indicated, that without such explanation, the analysis has no sense. I have to agree; the possible application should be indicated and analyzed for any scientific research. So, I include this application.
At this point I stop the announce and turn to the consideration of the topics declared above.

Separation of powers and Duration

The principle of separation of powers is not new; it is known since year 1772 [22][23]. Then, it is used as base of constitution of many so-called “Western” countries. The autocracies seem to be not so efficient from the point of view of development of science and technology. The idea is, that the society is handled by the 3 separate state organizations:
1. Legislative institutes
2. Executive institutes
3. Courts.
The independent journals, newspapers, taboloids, sites and social networks often are considered as the additional, fourth branch of the political power. Such an interpretation looks reasonable: at the usurpation, the tyrant not only suppress the first 3 branches, but also introduces the strong censorship, iron curtain, to leave his slaves without information; it is substituted it with propaganda. In this case, I consider the last term as synonym of fraud, misinformation.

Separation of powers seems to be important achievement of the Human civilization; so important, as invention of algebra and mathematic analysis, as laws of Newton, as electric power, as internet, as cars, aircrafts and GPS.
Courts cannot affect the laws, unless some contradiction in laws is detected. The executive institute (police, municipal governor) cannot affect the laws, nor courts. And so on. Separation of powers is believed to prevent the usurpation.
Sometimes, the usurpation still happens. Often, the autocracy pretends to be democracy. The performances are organized, simulating the election procedure. Practically, the usurper has power to nominate his crime partners to handle all the state institutes, including courts and the election committees; so, the election frauds become a custom; the official main result of the election does not depend on the way the citizen fill their ballots; the election committees count the fake ballots, fake votes, provided to support the tyranny [24]. The frauds, the misinformation does not favor to the prosper development of the society; contrary, the usurpation leads to stagnation and then to the collapse. I analyze, how quickly this collapse may occur.

In the modern history, there are many examples, when the autocracy lasts long (at least several generations). For example, the USSR lasted since 1923 to 1991, id est, during 68 years. The Roman Empire existed even longer. But there are very few examples, when once declared democratic constitution had been changed to autocratic; and, after such a conversion, the autocracy does not last long, it collapse within 20 years. In this paper, I consider such cases.

Let “duration” D refers to the time interval (measured in years) between the two events:
1. At the level of federal law, the principle of separation of powers is eliminated; the top offee gets the lifetime position with superior power (as any other monarch) over the Empire.
2. The Empire collapses, loses sovereignty and integrity.

Below I estimate the mean value of parameter D and its dispersion.

France

1802.08.04, in France, the Senate proclaim Napoleon Bonaparte the "Consul General" for life [5][01]. This de jure precludes the principle of separation of powers.

During a ten of yeas, Napoleon and his Empery seem to be very successful. The neighbor countries afraid spreading of the French revolution over all Europe, and try to stop it, but the Napoleon’s army defeat the enemies. Then, the centralized form of government brought Napoleon the mistakes. Instead of to organize the peaceful life at the territories he already had seized, instead of to liberate the Russian slaves ("крепостное право"), he tried to catch the Russian army. The Russian campain (Boirodino, Moscow, etc.) had followed by Waterloo. Since that, term "Waterloo" becomes a common noun, meaning a big failure.

1815.11.20, “Traité de Paris” [6][02] marks the collapse of Napoleon's French Empire.

For the Napoleon empire, duration
D = 1815−1802 = 13

For simplicity, I count only yers, and do not care about months nor about days. Since [18], I expect, the publishing of the forecast may slightly delay the realization; so, I round up the duration to integer number of years.

Italy

1928.05.17, the “Riforma elettorale” [7] happens in Italy. The great Duce, Benito Mussolini becomes a “legal” dictator. During a dozen years, Mussolini and his socialism seems to be successful. At the beginning of World War II, even the alliance with Hitler's Germany, and through Germany with the USSR, looked very prospective for the Mussolini's Italy.
In 1941, the quarrel between Stalin and Hitler (in the Sovietism, the fight between the two tyrants is denoted with term "Великая Отечественная война") happens. It destabilizes the Mussolini's regime; within few years, it collapses.

27.12.1947, the “Costituzione della repubblica Italiana” [8] is declared. The political system of Italy (not empire) is reinstalled.

D = 1947−1928 = 19

There is certain difference between government of Napoleon and that of Mussolini: creatures by Napoleon (for example, "Le Code civil des Français", 1804) are recognized as the important achievement of legislation (at least to century 21, is denoted with term "Napoleonic Code"), while the regime of Mussolini is qualified as fascistic evil. However, the durations D for both the regimes happen to be of the same order of magnitude. So, I continue through the European history.

Germany

The ideas of "socialism" by Lenin, Mussolini and Stalin are adopted also by German Fuhrer Adolf Hitler in form of so-called "Nacional socialism". Hitler uses the similar methods for usurpation, terror and censorship; Hitler "legalizes" his dictatorship with German punctuality:

1933.03.24, the law is adopted, that deprives the German constitution of its supremacy [9]. Adolf Hitler becomes a “legal” dictator.
During a ten of years, he seems to be very successful. Even at the beginning of quarrel with Stalin, the Hitler's Germany seemed to be successful. Then, the USA and the UK bombers crashed the German armies and German industries (many cities too).

1945.05.08, the Hitler’s empire collapses [10]. Germany losses its colonies; the political system is reinstalled.

D=1945−1933=12

USSR

Both, Stalin and Khrishcev look more intelligent, than Mussolini and Hitler: They did not try to legalize the tyranny, handling the USSR as feud of a big criminal band. The Iron curtain and Gulag are used by the Soviet genseks and their crime partners to hide information from the people.
The political repressions, mass terror and genocide in the USSR had been performed against the laws. This may look strange, but such a pirate, hypocrite society seems to be more stable, than relatively more honest regime of the Nazi Germany. The "Stalin Constitution" of year 1936 looked relatively liberal (although the Soviet offees did not follow it). Several dissidents insisted on that constitution, reminding, that it is main law of the Soviet Union (and were pubnished for their patriotic efforts).

1977.10.07, the so-called "Brezhnev Constitution" is adopted in the USSR [11]. That Constitution provides legislative status of the communistic party (Article 6) and the primacy of the state over civil rights (Article 39). The main law explicitly prescribes autocracy of the Communistic party, eliminating the principle of ]]separation of powers]] [12].

1991, the USSR collapses [13]. It losses its colonies; many countries liberate from the Soviet occupation and become independent.

D = 1991−1977 = 14

Conjecture

In the four cases considered above, the Duration happen to be of the same order of magnitude, of order of 16 years. So I suspect that it is not just an occasional coincidence; and formulate the hypothesis. I refer it as "Conjecture 1":

If the separation of powers is excluded by the federal law of some empire, then, the empire collapses within 16 ± 4 years.

Below I apply Conjecture 1 to the events of the 21st century. I consider the post-Soviet Russia, so-called "Russian Federation" (RF); it gives way of verification or refutation of Conjecture 1.

Russian Federation (RF)

Any scientific concept should allow the verification and the refutation. Often, the pseudo-scientific researches fails the refutability. For the test of conjecture 1, I consider the case of the Russian Federation (RF) of century 21.

2020.03.11, In Russia, the constitution has been “modified” [14]. Many authors indicates, that the Constitution had been vandalized, because the “modification” precludes separation of powers [15]. Since then, the Russian autocracy looks in some sense “legal”, as the fascistic single-party system of the USSR is specified in the "Brezhnev Constitution".

Using the Conjecture 1 above, one may guess, that after about of 16 years, id est, approximately in year 2036, the Russian autocracy should collapse. It is expected, that some Russian colonies gets independence, and the constitutional order will be recovered at territories annexed by Russia.

The collapse of the Russian Federation before year 2028 (if happens), as well as its remaining after year 2042 (if it remains) can be considered as refutation of the Conjecture 1.

Art

The estimate "year 1936" above for the Collapse of RF happen to be within time interval between the two other forecasts:
1. Utopia by Semen Skrepetski, "Россия 2028" [25]
2. Utopia by Vladimir Voinovich, "Москва 2042" [26]

If RF collapses in year 2028 or earlier, it will be refutation of Conjecture 1, but confirmation of forecast by Semen Skrepetski.

If RF collapses in year 2042 or later, it will be also refutation of Conjecture 1, but confirmation of forecast by Vladimir Voinovich.

In addition, if RF does not collapse during century 21, it will look as a challenge to the common sense, but still confirmation of concept by Gabriel Garcia Marquez "El otoño del patriarca" [27].

Popularity or the three artistic utopia mentioned indicates, that the forecasts have sense and, perhaps, can be applied to Russia in the real history of century 21.

In such a way, the researcher, suggesting models, does not gamble. At least one of scenarios mentioned is supposed to realize. Then, the methods, used to construct the successful forecast, can be used for prediction new historic events.
In the similar way, a century ago, the researchers had suggested many models to describe behavior of atoms (Bohm Hidden-variables, Bohr–Sommerfeld quantization, etc.), and some of them (Quantum Mechanics, quasi-elasticity for molecules, ..) happen to be so successful, that now they are considered as scientific facts. I expect, within a century, some historical models also get such a recognition.

Mechanisms

The general rule, that any empire, en fin, collapses, is refined with the conjecture 1 above. I suggest the criterion, Duration D, that refers to "legalization" of already performed usurpation at the level of the federal law.

The key point is the de-jure legalization of already de-facto happened usurpation. Then, within some 16 years, the empire collapses.

Various mechanisms may be responsible for collapse of the empire, where the fascistic rules (single-party system, lifetime “presidentship”, etc.) are declared at the level of the federal law. Below I try to guess these mechanisms.

A posteriori, it is easy to formulate hypothesis, why any specific dictator fails, what mistakes had he committed to break his empire.
In the case of Napoleon, we may guess, that in 1812, he had not to go so far into Russia; better, he could liberate the Russian slaves ("Крепостные") at the territory he had occupied, and organize the peaceful, prudent and prosper life there.
In the case of Mussolini, we may guess, that it was not a good idea, to make alliance with nazi; some union with the UK and with the USA would be more profitable. Instead of the seize more territories, Mussolini could fight the corruption and elaborate some anti-monopoly laws.
In the case of Hitler, we may guess, that it was not a good idea, to make the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with Stalin; that Hitler could qualify nazism as a mistake (as Stalin had declared the genocide of Russian and Ukrainian farmers in 1918-1930 to be a mistake [28]), to declare war for liberation of the Soviet people from the bolschevistic slavery; to stop bombing the UK, to make peace with the USA, to defeat Stalin and to keep his empire a dozen years longer, until to be murdered by his crime partners, in analogy with the end of Stalin.
The case of Brezhnev is a little bit different from those of Napoleon, Mussolini and Hitler. In the USSR, nobody believed in ideas of communism, nobody believed in postulates of Sovietism; most of people had identified Brezhnev as tyrant, fraudster, fascist, crime. The partners of Brezhnev might have reasons to crash the USSR, to legalize their treasures, to perform the money laundering, to declare their hidden treasures as their property.
Perhaps, the only fear of execution (that is easy to occur as a serious collapse) kept the Soviet Politburo from cutting the USSR to parts in 1970s and 1980s. In order to raise this fear, the change of Constitution, the Soviet invasion into Vietnam and the Soviet invasion into Afghanistan were necessary. They served the same goal, collapse of the USSR. So, the collapse of the USSR is difficult to qualify as somebody's mistake; the top of the Soviet administration knew, that the USSR is about to collapse, and tried to approach that collapse.
Amassing, that still, even for the USSR (collapsed due to the total internal corruption), without wars with other empires, the duration happens to be similar to that of other other autocratic empires. This similarity justifies consideration of hypothesis "Conjecture 1".

We may guess, which mechanisms determines the strange constant "16 years", the mean value of Duration D:

1. The fulfillment of international laws at territory of some country is not internal affair of the country. Once the official representatives of the country had signed the international agreements, and these agreements are ratified by the supreme source of power of that country, the country is supposed to follow these agreements. Over-vice, the country is qualified as incapable of negotiation. This indicates, that future agreements with the country have no sense, until the form of government of the country is changed to something more civilized. Other countries (both their population and the administration) are interested in such an update of their neighbor.
Duration “16 years” may be predetermined by the time when percents for the international penalty, not payed in time, exceed the budget of the country. This may cause consfiscation of property of that country and boost the collapse.

2. The country, that violates the international agreements at the level of the top administration, becomes an outcast. The citizen are requested to get the special entry permit to visit civilized countries. This is not a bad will of other countries, not an attempt to punish population of the unlawful country. This is just manifestation of fear, the civilized countries afraid of terrorists, that may be sponsored and protected by the unlawful country. Any official representatives, “offees” in the unlawful country a priori are supposed to be knaves, scammers, fraudsters, scums, crimes. For the same reason (protection of own country), the civilized societies apply sanctions, prohibit some trade relations with administration of the unlawful country, in order not to sponsor the terrorists. The 16 years may be the typical time interval, when the percents for the debts due to not-payed on penalty reaches the budget of the dictatorship; since that moment, the offees of the country are interested in the fastest collapse.

3. It is not easy, to get the superior power and perform the usurpation. The dictator comes to it, being at the top of his mental and physical abilities. The most active period of his life is unlikely to last longer than 30 years; ability to eliminate separation of powers happens, roughly, at the middle of this time interval. Then, the state, the country is identified with the monarch:
“l’État c’est moi!”
“Die Partei ist Hitler! Hitler aber ist Deutschland wie Deutschland Hitler ist!”
“Нет Путина - нет России!”
Mistakes of the monarch become errors of his country; the fatal mistake lead to the collapse of the country.

4. During 16 years, the new generation of the young people grow up. As soon as they learn to read, they understand, that their country is authoritarian; not from some alien propaganda, but from the main laws of their own country. Either they begin to consider the fuhrer as main enemy or, at least, they have no wish to risk their lives for glory of the emperor/usurper.

Many other such mechanisms can be suggested. Upon the confirmation with the example with Russia (collapse of RF in century 21), the detailed analysis may have sense.

5. However, one may attribute the constant “16 years” to some coincidence; values of duration D for various countries occasionally happen to be similar. In such an approach, the elimination of principle of separation of power and the following collapse of the Empire can be considered as independent, not related events. Within this hypothesis, observations of values of Duration shorter than 10 years and/or longer than 20 years are expected to be observed as the confirmation. For year 2021, I did not found such examples.

Reciprocal action

Forecasts, referring to something related to human behavior, have common immanent defect. Once the forecast is formulated and published, it may affect the mechanisms caused the phenomenon. The forecast of the phenomenon may prevent it, or reduce the probability of the event, or boost it, or delay it. I think, formulation of my conjecture does not affect so much the events related to the collapse of an Empire. In this section I explain this point of view.

The ruler of an empire is supposed to have some superior education. In addition, the fuhrer has all the abilities to employ the qualified specialists, consultants, that know the history and may say him (or her), that the principle of separation of powers is important glue, that keeps the big, multinational country together; that degradation of legislation to the autocracy is followed by the collapse. However, this concept does not seem to affect behavior of autocrats.

No consultant could explain Napoleon Buonapart, that it is not a good idea, to declare himself an Emperor, that such a concentration of power leads to loss of the feedback, and, as result, the country may loss the colonies. No consultant could say Napoleon, that, instead of to try to defeat the Russian army deeply inside Russia, he could arrange the freedom for the Russian slaves at the territories, he already has in his control. It is vain to say such a things to the Emperor. Leo Tolstoi describes the point of view, that even it someone could convince Napoleon to change this style of handling France and the French Army, even this would not affect the flow of the History [29]. The idea is that even if any futuristic sci-fi analogy of «War and Peace» («Война и мир») were published, say, in 1800, even that would not save Napoleon's empire from collapse. The expansing empire cannot be stopped in a civilized way, with an historic manuscript, even if the empire is constructed on very attractive ideas ("Liberté, égalité, fraternité").

No historian could explain to talented painter Adolf Hitler, that he cannot handle the big country solving all the important questions by himself, that this unavoidable leads to errors, mistakes and failure. No consultants can help an autocrat, what keep under his control all the branches of political powers, legislative, executive and courts. No referents can help such an usurper. No adviser could convince Adolf Hitler, that it is not a good idea, to fight against all the world, promoting the nazi idea. Nobody could convinced him, that the union with bolsheviks (Molotov-Ribbentrop pact) is not a good idea. No one could convince him, and the more efficient should be declaration of war against the bolshevik tyranny, for the freedom of all nations and races. No one could convince him, that he should prepare acceptance of millions of surrendered soldiers and officers of the Red Army, that it is more important, than to increase the military power of the Wehrmacht. The attempts to address Adolf Hitler with some logic and historic experience were not successful [30]. From this point of view, nobody could save Hitler by any forecast.

There is also example of the USSR. In 1969, Andrei Amalrik predicted its collapse during century 21 [18]. One could think, that the Soviet genseks and their criminal partners, agents of KGB, could easily get access to that book, order their referents to analyze it, reveal the main mechanisms (total corruption, stupid propaganda, etc.) that cause the collapse, discuss these causes at the scientific seminars and scientific journals and, finally, eliminate the causes, preventing the collapse. But this did not happen. Instead of to publish that book, the Soviet offees had prohibited it, punished the author and, en fin, disrupted the USSR with the KGB’s putch in 1991. In such a way, the hypothesis, that “the Soviet genseks (Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko) did not know that they lead the USSR to the collapse” is not consistent. No alarm could prevent the collapse of the USSR.

I think, in the first approach, the published prediction of collapse cannot affect the historic process. In the similar way, a passenger of the famous ship Titanic could not prevent the crash and sink of the liner. Even if he informs the Captain, that it is not good idea, to run the new ship at maximal speed in darkness, while the water is cold, and it is easy to meet an iceberg. Such a warning would be vain: the Captain would order the crew to lock the аlarmist in a room with good acoustic isolation, in order not to disturb other passengers nor the crew.

I think, the same applies to the example with Russia, mentioned above. It does not matter, either the current Russian usurper exist biologically, as a fuhrer, unique dictator, or it is just a personage, interpreted by various artists, that look similar to the prototype and represents interests in the criminal clan of the Russian offees. In any of these cases, the criminal partners, who supply their boss with the information, are not interested to take into account the warnings. The important is, that the Russian offees know, that Russia goes to the collapse, in the same way, as the Soviet offees knew, that they lead the USSR to disintegration. Therefore, this research is not supposed to affect their behavior. As for the people, due to the practice of the election fraud, they cannot affect the political course of Russia: the announced official results of any election in Russia do not depend on the way the citizen fill their ballots.

In such a way, I think, at the first approach, the reciprocal action of the predicted collapse of empire can be neglected.

Discussion

Hypothesis "Conjecture 1" above and especially the example with Russia are important for the Baltic countries. The serious problems they meat in century 21 is related with migrants. Since the collapse of the USSR and reunion of Germany, the Baltic countries show the efficient development. This attracts migrants from the less civilized countries.

Since the beginning of century 21 (the agent of KGB, terrorist becomes president of Russia), many migrants want to move to Europe; emigration from Russia and its close alias Belarus tends to increase.

In year 2021, the migration from Belarus already becomes dangerous [31]. The migrants claim that they are migrants from Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, but none of them seems to be publically recognized as citizen by administration of any country; most of them look as terrorists: ‘Terrorism has no religion, no country’ [32]. At least some of the "migrants" are believed to be agents of Belarusian and/or Russian KGB [33], id est, dangerous terrorists, ihtamnets.

Migrants from Russia and Belarus are dangerous not only for the Baltic countries, but to all the European Union. Some migrants are heading Poland and Germany [34]. The Russian usurper is believed to cause and handle the massive migration. Since 2021 September, various authors mention the problem of migrants from Belarus, attacking the border with Poland. The publications do not answer the following questions about the migrants:
1. How many of them speak Russian or Belarusian?
2. How may of them are fluent in Farsi, Arabic, Kurdish languages? (Or in French, or in any of the Congo dialects?)
3. How many of them are recognized by administration of some countries as the citizens?[35]
4. How many of the "migrants" are agents of KGB (like "Boshirov and Petrov")?
5. Why the "migrants" (and those who sympathize them) do not sue the travel agency (Belarusian Centrkurort [36]), that sell the one-way trips Iraq-Belarus with the final point near the border with Poland? Why the agents of that travel agency are not under sanctions?

Before these questions are answered, it is difficult to qualify the event as beginning of the massive migration from Russia (and Belarus) to the Western countries. According to Conjecture 1, much more massive migration is expected to begin a dozen years later.

Up to year 2021, the main reserves of Russian administration ("second oil", [37]), millions of poor people, are not yet activated in such a "migrational war". At the collapse of RF, the problem may scale up for orders of magnitude. The legislation of civilized countries is not prepared to deal with millions of poorly educated people, not speaking the European languages, seeking for the asylum; especially if they flee from real disaster, dangerous for their lives. The moral problem, how to deal with huge numbers of refugees, seems to have no civilized solution.

The history of century 20 gives similar sad examples.

1939.05.27, the Jews fled Germany on board of liner St Louis had been rejected the asylum at Havana and were forced to return Europe; then, hundreds of them were killed by nazis [38].

Few years later, the similar case happens during the quarrel between Stalin and Hitler. In 1941-1942, millions of Soviet soldiers surrendered to the German army, hoping for a merci from the German administration. Hitler did not expect to get so many prisoners of war; he did not prepare the huge labor camps to employ so many Russians. Only about of million of them had been used to fight together with German troops for liberation of Russia from bolshevism (the Hitler's Germany happen to be not a good tool for such a liberation).
The Soviet soldiers had believed, that, surrendering, they had escaped from Soviet hell; they did not expect administration of the Nazi Germany to be so similar to offees of the Bolshevik USSR. Millions of the war prisoners died from malnutrition, colds and diseases [39].

At the the collapse of the USSR, the amount of applicants from the USSR become so large, that the civilized countries had to establish the special consul procedures, trying to filter-out the terrorists. During tens of years since the USSR, the procedures become more complicated, but still not so efficient: the agents of KGB Kovtun and Lugovoy got a Schengen visas (and used them to perform the terroristic act with Polonium-210 in 2007); the KGB agents Chepiga and Mishkin with fake passports on names "Boshirov" and "Petrov" also got a Schengen visas and perform the attack against the UK, using the chemical weapon (poison of class "Novichok") in 2018.

At the Collapse of RF, the number of migrants, seeking for refuge, may become comparable with the total population of Russia.

Since year 2010, hundreds of citizen of Ivangorod world like to live in Estonia (Narva) [40], and people in Karelia think about leaving from RF and joining Finland [41], Neither the administration of Finland nor that of Estonia expresses any will to return the territories seized and plundered by the Soviet aggressors since the World War II.

To year 2019, the poverty in Russia increases [42].
Since year 2019, even people from the central Siberia try to emigrate [43], indicating Canada as tehir goal.

At the collapse of RF, the number of the emigrants, refugees is expected to increase. The civilized countries will have to deal with serious problem of migrants, they may count millions.

The problem of migrants can be mitigated, if the civilized countries recover control over the territories, seized by the Soviet and Russian aggressors since the World War II. The schools and the labor camps for the migrants could be placed there.

Russia is surrounded by lands, that are, softly speaking, "disputed". This means that, according to the last international agreements about borders, these lands are not part of Russia, do not belong to Russia, but are seized, plundered by the Soviet and Russian aggressors, and remain occupied by the Russian troops during many years. I list some of them in the clock-wise order:

1. The Kuril islands and South part of Karafuto. The last agreement that determines the border between Russia and Japan refer to year 1905 [44]. According to that agreement, these territories are parts of Japan. Since that, no more recent agreement about border between Russia and Japan is found.

2. Abkhazia and South Osetia. The last agreement found about border between Russia and Georgia refers to year 1920 [45]. The later agreement, 1992.06.24.Сочинское соглашение [46] does not redefine the border between Russia and Georgia. Since that, no any new agreement is found, that would define border between Russia and Georgia is a different way. So, the regions, plundered by Russia at the invasion in 2008, are parts of Georgia.

3. Crimea and Eastern Donbass. The last agreement about border between Russia and Ukraine refers to year 2003, see 2003.01.28.RussiaUkraineBorder [47]. According to that agreement, both Crimea and Donbass belong to Ukraine. Since that, no any new agreement about border between Russia and Ukraine is found.

4. The border between Latvia and Russia is determined by the agreement from 2007.12.18 (2007.12.18.LatviaRussiaL) [48][49].

5. Ivangorod (East part of Narva) and Petseri (Pechory). The last agreement about border between Estonia and Russia refers to year 1920, "Treaty of Tartu" [50]. According to that agreement, these territories belong to Estonia. Since that, no any new agreement that would redefine the border is ratified; so, no any new agreement is necessary to recover the constitutional order there.

6. The border between Russia and Finland. The last agreement, determining this border, refers to year 1922 [51]. That agreement had been violated since year 1939 by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, followed by the three Soviet invasions to Finland (1939, 1941, 1944) and one German invasion (1941). Since that, no more recent agreement is found to specify the border.

Many international agreements are violated by the Russian offees. Corruption in Russia not only got the large scale, but become the common, usual phenomenon, that determines the entire life of the Russian officials [52]. The state institute are demounted, replaced with the "vertical power" (вертикаль власти) of the usurper, and remains as theatrical props, that try to make impression of the state institutes. In particular, in Russia, there is no mechanism, that would force the officials to follow the International laws, the agreements, they had signed. Up to year 2021, many lands of neighbor countries remain under control of the Russian troops. At least some of these territories could be cleaned from the Russian occupants at the collapse of RF [53][54]. Then, these lands could be used to accommodate the migrants, that attack the European borders, to place the schools and the labour camps for the refugee, who neither speak any European language, nor have any profession requested in Europe. This could mitigate the migrational crisis.

From my point of view, the price of Human life should remain at least positive. Construction of the labour camps at territories, occupied by RF, could be relatively civilized solution. At least, it looks better than to let the migrants to die from cold and hunger in the strip between two barbed wires, pushed by the Belarusian soldiers from behind and blocked by the Polish border patrol in front [55]. Hypothesis "Conjhectire 1" provides an estimate, when these labor camps may become necessary and, perhaps, unavoidable.

The history of territories, occupied by the Soviet and Russian aggressors, looks strange. Up to year 2021, no significant cooperation is observed between countries that become victims of the Russian aggression.
In principle, since year 2008, Japan could make agreement with Georgia with goal to expel the Russian troops from the occupied territories (and to resist together any new Russian aggressions), but this does not happen.
At least since year 2014, the union of Georgia, Ukraine and Japan could happen with goal to recover the borders of these countries, according to the actual international agreements.
Many other Russian neighbors, especially the Baltic countries, could join such an agreement. Up to year 2021, no any attempts to make the agreement is observed. This looks counter-intuitive, and, therefore, has the scientific interest. Analysis of this case may be matter for the future research.

Conclusion

Concept of quantitative comparison of historical events is suggested. One such parameter is denoted with term "Duration".

Duration D of an empery is defined as length of the time interval, measured in years, between the two events:
A. Fixation at the federal law of already occurred usurpation. (Legislative elimination of the separation of powers.)
B. Collapse of the empire.

Analysis of examples from history of France, Italy, Germany and the USSR leads to the following hypothesis:

Conjecture 1.
If the separation of powers is excluded at the federal law of some empire,
then, the empire collapses within 16 ± 4 years.

The evolution of the Russian Federation (RF) in century 21 is suggested as way to confirm or to refute Conjecture 1.
Vandalization of Constitution of RF in y.2020 is interpreted as event A. The expected collapse of RF is interpreted as event B.
The collapse of the Russian Federation before year 2028 (if happens), as well as its remaining after year 2042 (if it remains) can be considered as refutation of Conjecture 1.

The example with Russia is especially important for the Baltic countries: the collapse of RF should greatly increase the flux of migrants. Up to year 2021, Europe cannot accept these migrants.

The future work, upon verification of Conjecture 1, may include the analysis of origin of the empiric constant "16 years". The future work may include also search for other non-trivial parameters, similar for various countries.
If success, these parameters give base for the scientific prediction of historic events, forming new branch of the Historical science.

Warning

The estimate above refers to primitive statistical model. It is suggested as illustration of the research I would like to expect from the colleagues who specialize in the historical science.

The Duration D may be not best possible parameter; there may exist some other parameters, that give more accurate predictions.

The estimate of end of empire I take approximately; perhaps, more accurate estimate may happen to be displaced for one or two years to any direction on the timescale. The goal is to show the idea, to demonstrate the prototype. I think, this prototype has sense, even if namely duration D happen to be not very useful - in the similar sense, as the first steam tractor by Nicolas Cugnot, year 1769, was not practical.

The prediction about Russia is suggested as check of the simple conjecture rather than a formal forecast. Up to my knowledge, it is the only prediction, that indicates, what assumptions and what initial data lead to the conclusion. Any other researcher, repeating my calculus, is expected to get a similar estimate.

The analysis I suggest has pure scientific goal.
It should not interpreted as an appeal to any "territorial-political reorganization" ("территориально-политическое переустройство", this term is borrowed from the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact [56]) in Europe.
This analysis should not be interpreted as an attempt to boost the collapse of any empire, nor an attempt to prolong, to extend its agony, but an attempt to estimate, to predict the year, when it will collapse, in the most scientific (not political) way - in the similar way, as a nuclear physicist tries to estimate the halftime of decay of a rare unstable isotope, using the scarce experimental data.

References

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  12. 12.0 12.1 http://www.memo.ru/library/books/sw/chapt43.htm https://mizugadro.mydns.jp/t/index.php/1977notesR С.В.Каллистратова. Некоторые замечания по поводу Проекта Конституции СССР 1977 года. (1977) // «Заступница» (С. В. Калистратова). Составитель: Е.Печуро. «Звенья», 2003.
  13. 13.0 13.1 https://estonianworld.com/life/estonia-celebrates-the-day-of-restoration-of-independence Einar Vära. Estonia celebrates the 30th anniversary of the restoration of independence. Estonian World, August 20, 2021. .. On 20 August 1991, Estonia declared formal independence during the Soviet military coup attempt in Moscow, reconstituting the pre-1940 state; ..
  14. 14.0 14.1 https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/03/11/84262-nesmenyaemost-putina-uzurpatsiya-vlasti Несменяемость Путина — узурпация власти. Заявление Общественного конституционного совета. 21:11 11 марта 2020. Решение о несменяемости Путина на должности Президента РФ, принятое по его предложению сегодня Госдумой, является узурпацией власти. Это решение антиконституционно.
  15. 15.0 15.1 2021.03.23. https://www.coe.int/en/web/moscow/-/venice-commission-adopts-new-opinion-on-2020-constitutional-amendments-and-the-procedure-for-their-adoption-in-the-russian-federation Venice Commission adopts new opinion on 2020 constitutional amendments and the procedure for their adoption in the Russian Federation STRASBOURG 23 MACRH 2021 .. Taken together, these changes go far beyond what is appropriate under the principle of separation of powers .. Taken together, the amendments to the provisions on the judiciary amount to a danger to the rule of law in the Russian Federation.
  16. 16.0 16.1 https://www.bibleref.com/Genesis/15/Genesis-15-13.html Genesis 15:13, KJV: "And he said unto Abram, Know of a surety that thy seed shall be a stranger in a land that is not theirs, and shall serve them; and they shall afflict them four hundred years;"
  17. 17.0 17.1 https://de.wikisource.org/wiki/Manifest_der_Kommunistischen_Partei_(1848) K.Marx, F.Engels. Manifest der Kommunistischen Partei. 1847,1848, London. .. Die Kommunisten ver schmähen es, ihre Ansichten und Absichten zu verheimlichen. Sie erklären es offen, daß ihre Zwecke nur erreicht werden können durch den gewaltsamen Umsturz aller bisherig en Gesellschaftsordnung. ..
  18. 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 http://www.vehi.net/politika/amalrik.html Андрей Амальрик. ПРОСУЩЕСТВУЕТ ЛИ СОВЕТСКИЙ СОЮЗ ДО 1984 ГОДА? июнь 1969, город Москва - деревня Акулово.
  19. 19.0 19.1 14. https://mizugadro.mydns.jp/t/index.php/Orwell1984 George Orwell. Nineteen Eighty-four. 1949. Апрель-май-
  20. Dmitry Becklemishev. Female logic. (2010)
  21. https://www.morebooks.de/store/gb/book/superfunctions/isbn/978-620-2-67286-3 Dmitrii Kouznetsov. Superfunctions. Lambert Academic Publishing, 2020.
  22. https://archives.ecole-alsacienne.org/CDI/pdf/1400/14055_MONT.pdf Charles Montesquieu. De l’esprit des lois. .. à partir du livre Montesquieu, De l'esprit deslois (1758). Édition établie par Laurent Versini, Paris, Éditions Gallimard, 1995.
  23. https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/separation-of-powers-an-overview.aspx Separation of Powers--An Overview. 5/1/2021. The term "trias politica" or "separation of powers" was coined by Charles-Louis de Secondat, baron de La Brède et de Montesquieu, an 18th century French social and political philosopher. ..
  24. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2012/12/19/1206770110.full.pdf Ruben Enikolopova, Vasily Korovkina, Maria Petrova, Konstantin Sonin, Alexei Zakharov. Field experiment estimate of electoral fraud in Russian parliamentary elections. Edited by Roger B. Myerson, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, and approved November 26, 2012 (received for review April 23, 2012).
  25. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v1GF-YG99o Россия 2028// Семён Скрепецкий Аудио книга// Published on Apr 13, 2019
  26. https://knijky.ru/books/moskva-2042 Владимир Войнович. Москва 2042.
  27. http://www.unilibrebaq.edu.co/unilibrebaq/pdhulbq/publicaciones/GGM/EL%20OTOÑO%20DEL%20PATRIARCA%20GGM.pdf Gabriel García Márquez. El otoño del patriarca (2021)
  28. http://www.hrono.ru/libris/stalin/12-2.php И.Сталин. ГОЛОВОКРУЖЕНИЕ ОТ УСПЕХОВ. "Правда" № 60, 2 марта 1930 г.
  29. https://americanliterature.com/author/leo-tolstoy/book/war-and-peace/book-ten-1812-chapter-xxviii Leo Tolstoy. War and Peace. Chapter XXVIII. .. The French soldiers went to kill and be killed at the battle of Borodino not because of Napoleon's orders but by their own volition. The whole army- French, Italian, German, Polish, and Dutch- hungry, ragged, and weary of the campaign, felt at the sight of an army blocking their road to Moscow that the wine was drawn and must be drunk. Had Napoleon then forbidden them to fight the Russians, they would have killed him and have proceeded to fight the Russians because it was inevitable. ..
  30. https://www.opindia.com/2019/10/my-dear-friend-read-the-letters-mahatma-gandhi-wrote-to-adolf-hitler-the-ultimate-monster/ ‘My dear friend’: Read the letters Mahatma Gandhi wrote to Adolf Hitler, the ‘ultimate monster’ 2 October, 2019. OpIndia Staff.
  31. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58952867 Paul Adams. How Belarus is helping ‘tourists’ break into the EU. BBC News, 2021.10.22. The group are Syrian Kurds, in their 20s, looking to Europe for a better future. They are all from Kobane, the scene of ferocious fighting between Kurdish fighters and Islamic State militants in late 2014.// But while their motives - political instability at home, fear of conscription, lack of employment - are the familiar refrain of migrants the world over, the route they have taken is new.// Idris admits he might not have tried to leave Syria if Belarus's autocratic leader, Alexander Lukashenko, had not offered a new, apparently safer route...
  32. https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/terrorism-has-no-religion-no-country/article26562192.ece Syed Mohammed. ‘Terrorism has no religion, no country’. MARCH 18, 2019 00:14 IST.
  33. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/are-belarus-and-russia-using-migrant-crisis-to-smuggle-agents-into-europe/ Brian Whittier Are Belarus and Russia using migrant crisis to smuggle agents into Europe? 2021.10.20.
  34. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59226226 Belarus migrants: Poland PM blames Russia's Putin for migrant crisis. 2021.11.09. Poland's Prime Minister has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of being behind a migrant crisis at Belarus's border with Poland. .. Speaking on Tuesday at an emergency parliamentary session after visiting troops on the border, Mr Morawiecki said: "This attack which Lukashenko is conducting has its mastermind in Moscow, the mastermind is President Putin." ..
  35. https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/36657/returned-iraqi-migrants-claim-they-were-tortured-in-belarus-and-poland Benjamin Bathke. Returned Iraqi migrants claim they were tortured in Belarus and Poland. 2021/11/22.
  36. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/18/russia-belarus-poland-lithuiania-migrants-eu-weapon/ Tomasz Grzywaczewski. Russia and Belarus Are Using Migrants as a Weapon Against the EU. Authoritarian regimes in Moscow and Minsk are aiding Iraqis and Afghans in order to sow chaos and domestic discord in Eastern European countries. SEPTEMBER 18, 2021, 2:00 AM. .. In July, journalists from Belsat TV, the independent channel broadcasting from Poland to Belarus, reve­­­­­­­­­aled that Belarusian secret services were conducting an operation to transfer migrants from the Middle East via Belarus to Lithuania. Agnieszka Romaszewska-Guzy, director of Belsat TV, explained explained to Foreign Policy that, “The state-owned company Centrkurort belonging to the President’s Affairs Board, which cooperates with Iraqi travel agencies, is responsible for bringing migrants from Iraq to Belarus. These people get Belarusian tourist visas and after landing at the Minsk airport, they are placed in hotels in Minsk and finally transported to the borders.” ..
  37. https://ria.ru/20090316/165063972.html Иванов призывает инвестировать во "вторую нефть" России - людей. 19:21 16.03.2009. ..Люди - вот наша "вторая нефть", ..
  38. https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27373131 SS St Louis: The ship of Jewish refugees nobody wanted. By Mike Lanchin. 13 May 2014. On 13 May 1939, more than 900 Jews fled Germany aboard a luxury cruise liner, the SS St Louis. They hoped to reach Cuba and then travel to the US - but were turned away in Havana and forced to return to Europe, where more than 250 were killed by the Nazis.
  39. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNb7_RCDUtk Лето 1941: причины поражений Красной Армии (М. Солонин). Jun 26, 2019. Antrasis pasaulinis Lietuvoje. Историк Марк Солoнин опровергает мифы о причинах поражений Красной армии в начале войны 1941. (Радио Свобода, "Культ личности", 22 Июнь 2019, oбозреватель Леонид Велехов).
  40. https://www.svoboda.org/a/2009712.html Анастасия Кириленко. Ивангород просится в Эстонию? 12 апреля 2010
  41. http://www.newizv.ru/lenta/132048/ Житель Петрозаводска оштрафован за призывы отдать Финляндии часть России. 16:23 24.08.2010. Суд города Петрозаводск республики Карелия вынес приговор в отношении 47-летнего жителя города Вячеслава Дрезнера. Он обвинялся в публичных призывах к осуществлению экстремистской деятельности (ст. 280 УК РФ).// Следствием и судом установлено, что Дрезнер в январе 2010 года изготовил в Петрозаводске листовки, содержащие призывы о передаче Финляндии приграничных территорий Республики Карелия, Мурманской и Ленинградской областей РФ..
  42. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/07/30/21m-russians-live-in-poverty-official-data-says-a66618 21M Russians Live in Poverty, Official Data Says. July 30, 2019. .. The number of Russians living below the poverty line has grown by half a million since early 2018, according to official data.
  43. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-coal-environmental-refugees-trudeau-1.5169668 Chris Brown. Women in Siberian coal town beg Trudeau to let them come to Canada as environmental refugees. Based on Canada's immigration rules, their chances aren't very good. CBC News, 2019.06.11.
  44. https://worldjpn.grips.ac.jp/documents/texts/pw/19050905.T1E.html National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS); Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia (IASA), The University of Tokyo [Title] Russo-Japanese Peace Treaty (Treaty of Portsmouth) [Place] Portsmouth, New Hampshire [Date] September 5, 1905
  45. http://www.georoute.ge/Russian-Georgian_agreement_1920 Договор между Россией и Грузией от 7 мая 1920 года.
  46. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1902246?section=status Соглашение о принципах урегулирования грузинско-осетинского конфликта Статус Действующий Опубликован Международное публичное право:Сб.документов.В 2т.М.:БЕК,1996 т.1 Дата принятия 24 июня 1992 Дата начала действия 24 июня 1992
  47. https://dokipedia.ru/document/5191455 Действующий Договор между Российской Федерацией и Украиной о российско-украинской государственной границе (Киев, 28 января 2003 г.)
  48. https://likumi.lv/ta/id/157792-par-latvijas-republikas-un-krievijas-federacijas-ligumu-par-latvijas-un-krievijas-valsts-robezu Par Latvijas Republikas un Krievijas Federācijas līgumu par Latvijas un Krievijas valsts robežu 1.pants. 2007.gada 27.martā Maskavā parakstītais Latvijas Republikas un Krievijas Federācijas līgums par Latvijas un Krievijas valsts robežu (turpmāk — Līgums) ar šo likumu tiek pieņemts un apstiprināts, ievērojot Eiropas Drošības un sadarbības organizācijas pieņemto robežu nemainības principu. (Ar Satversmes tiesas 29.11.2007. spriedumu vārdi "ievērojot Eiropas Drošības un sadarbības organizācijas pieņemto robežu nemainības principu" atzīti par neatbilstošiem LR Satversmes 68. panta pirmajai daļai un spēkā neesošiem no sprieduma publicēšanas brīža) 2.pants. Līgums stājas spēkā tā 8.pantā noteiktajā laikā un kārtībā, un Ārlietu ministrija par to paziņo laikrakstā "Latvijas Vēstnesis". 3.pants. Likums stājas spēkā nākamajā dienā pēc tā izsludināšanas. Līdz ar likumu izsludināms Līgums. Likums Saeimā pieņemts 2007.gada 17.maijā. Valsts prezidente V.Vīķe-Freiberga Rīgā 2007.gada 29.maijā .. Latvijas Republikas un Krievijas Federācijas valsts robežas // APRAKSTS // Valsts robeža starp Latvijas Republiku un Krievijas Federāciju sākas no Latvijas Republikas, Krievijas Federācijas un Baltkrievijas Republikas valsts robežu saskares punkta. No minētā saskares punkta, kas atrodas uz Zilupes [Sinjuha] upes un tajā ietekošās Ņevericas [Neverica] upes viduslīniju krustpunkta aptuveni 0,1 km uz dienvidiem no kurgāna ar nosaukumu "Draudzības kurgāns" un šoseju sazarojuma, Latvijas-Krievijas robeža iet vispārējā ziemeļu virzienā pa Zilupes [Sinjuha] upes vidu lejup pa straumi aptuveni 7,3 km līdz no labās puses ietekošam beznosaukuma strautam, pāriet uz šo strautu un tālāk iet pa tā vidu augšup pa straumi no sākuma uz ziemeļaustrumiem, pēc tam uz ziemeļrietumiem līdz punktam, kurš atrodas aptuveni 0,4 km ziemeļos no Latvijas apdzīvotās vietas (turpmāk - apdz.v.) Skripčinas. Pēc tam robeža pagriežas uz ziemeļiem un pieiet pie Latvijas apdz.v. Sirutevas austrumu malas, pagriežas uz ziemeļaustrumiem un iet pa mežu austrumos no Latvijas apdzīvotajām vietām (turpmāk - apdz.v.) aptuveni šādos attālumos: no Kazakiem - 0,3 km, no Grišinas - 1,0 km, no Dauguļevas - 0,6 km; aptuveni 0,2 km austrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Konovalovas tā pagriežas uz ziemeļiem, bet pēc tam aptuveni pēc 0,8 km - uz ziemeļrietumiem, tālāk iet pa mežu un stigām: aptuveni 0,1 km austrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Sopatņiem, 0,3 km austrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Trubilovas, 1,6 km attālumā rietumos no Krievijas apdz.v. Bezgribovas [Bezgribovo] un Tolstjakiem [Tolstjaki], 0,3 km austrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Gumņiščiem. Aptuveni 0,5 km austrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Terehovas un 0,5 km rietumos no Krievijas apdz.v. Buračkiem [Burački] robeža šķērso šoseju Sebeža [Sebež]-Nirza, pēc tam pagriežas uz ziemeļrietumiem un iet pa grāvja vidu ziemeļaustrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Diraginas. Aptuveni 0,6 km austrumos no Latvijas apdz.v. Saveļinkiem un 0,2 km austrumos no punkta ar atzīmi 136,0 robeža pagriežas uz ziemeļaustrumiem, krusto dzelzceļu Idrica-Zilupe, un pēc tam šoseju Sebeža [Sebež]-Ludza starp Krievijas apdz.v. Mogiļiem [Mogili] un Latvijas apdz.v. Černovu un pienāk pie 1.punkta, kurš no robežu saskares punkta atrodas aptuveni 34,0 km attālumā pa robežas līniju. ..
  49. https://www2.mfa.gov.lv/ru/informacionnye-materialy-i-dokumenty/opisanie-prohozhdeniya-gosudarstvennoy-granicy-mezhdu-latviyskoy-respublikoy-i-rossiyskoy-federaciey Описание прохождения государственной границы между Латвийской Республикой и Российской Федерацией 02.12.2014. 19:09 Приложение 1 к Договору между Латвийской Республикой и Российской Федерацией о латвийско-российской государственной границе.
  50. https://ida.aule.ee/juriidika/Tartu_rahuleping.pdf Alla kirjutatud eesti ja vene keeles 2. veebruaril 1920 Tartus. Ratifitseeritud 30. märtsil 1920 Moskvas. Registreeritud Rahvasteliidus 12. juulil 1922. Allikas: Riigi Teataja, 1920, 24/25 (18. veebruar 1920), lk. 185 Täiendavate artiklite ja kaardi allikas: Wikimedia ja Rahvusarhiiv, ERA.957.10.71
  51. http://karel.su/106-1922-soglashenie-mezhdu-rsfsr-i-finlyandiey-o-meropriyatiyah-obespechivayuschih-neprikosnovennost-granicy.html 1922 Соглашение между РСФСР и Финляндией о мероприятиях обеспечивающих неприкосновенность границы.
  52. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UySDT5AWD74 leonidmart on Sep 5, 2011. Путин. Коррупция. Ч. I - Кооператив «Озеро». Д.Медведев: Коррупция в нашей стране приобрела не просто масштабный характер, она стала привычным, обыденным явлением, которое характеризует саму жизнь в нашем обществе... (In Russian)
  53. https://glavcom.ua/country/politics/jevroparlamentar-nazvav-jedinu-mozhlivist-ukrajini-povernuti-krim-789191.html 7 Жовтня, 2021. Вітаутас Ландсбергіс заявив, що Крим повернеться в Україну лише з розпадом Росії - Європарламентар назвав єдину можливість України повернути Крим
  54. https://day.kyiv.ua/uk/article/den-planety/yakshcho-yevropa-zradyt-ukrayinu-vona-zradyt-sebe Олена Задорожна. «Якщо Європа зрадить Україну, вона зрадить себе» Думки європарламентаря Вітаутаса ЛАНДСБЕРГІСА про імперські амбіції Росії, перспективи України та роль Європи. 5 жовтня, 2021. .. не зовсім так, як проголошує українська влада, мовляв, ми отримаємо Крим назад і, може, навіть скоро. Але це «скоро» чи «не скоро» прийде лише з розпадом Росії, не раніше.
  55. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/09/world/poland-blocks-migrants/ Poland blocks migrants at Belarus border, warns of 'armed' escalation. Nov 9, 2021. .. They say they are stuck between a rock and a hard place, with the Belarusian side refusing to allow them to return to Minsk and fly home, while Poland does not let them cross and make asylum claims. ..
  56. https://ru.wikisource.org/wiki/Секретный_дополнительный_протокол_к_Договору_о_ненападении_между_Германией_и_СССР Секретный дополнительный протокол к Договору о ненападении между Германией и Советским Союзом, 1939