Sandbox

Quasistationary Model of Putin world war is historic model generated by ChatGPT at the request to find optimistic realistic forecast of development the North, Central and East Eurasia, and perhaps, the whole Human civilization, for the next 100 years; say, years 2026-2126.
Term "Quasistationary" in the title indicates that in this model, Putin and his accomplices try to keep the war at some intermediata scale spending or order of 1000 orks daily (see "График спецоперации"), in order to prolong the agony of putin's Russia for some tens years; at least until the death of the "main" putin, see "Collapse of RF", "Duration",

The model was supposed to be more optimistic, then the sci-fi utopia Tartaria. ChatGPT failed to find in open-access publications the model requested and had generated such a model by itself.

As the extremely opposite case, the model «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» is referred. In the most radical interpretation, putin and Donald Trump together try to boost the Putin world war to the scale of the World War II or even worse.

The expected observations are compared for the two models are described. No preference to any of the two models is achieved.

Witkoff-Lavrov Pact

Realpolitik at Bucha, 2022

Quasistationary Model of Putin world war

Introduction

This article describes a quasistationary model of the Putin world war in the 21st century.

The model assumes that even aggressive, criminal or authoritarian regimes do not necessarily aim at total destruction of the global system, but instead operate within a dynamically stabilized configuration of conflicts, constraints and risks.

This approach contrasts with the Radical cooperative escalation model, in which leaders intentionally escalate conflicts toward global catastrophe.

The purpose of this article is to formulate the quasistationary model in terms of observable phenomena and to provide criteria for its falsifiability.

Model description

Basic assumptions

1. Key actors (states, elites) are **risk-accepting but not suicidal**.
2. Even highly insulated leaders (bunkers, underground systems) remain dependent on:
   • technical systems,
   • supply chains,
   • loyal personnel.
3. These dependencies cannot be fully secured in a global nuclear conflict.
4. Existence of nuclear weapons creates a strong constraint (nuclear taboo).
5. Elites aim at:
   • preservation of power,
   • controlled expansion,
   • avoidance of irreversible collapse.

Core mechanisms

1. Deterrence

Mutual vulnerability limits escalation.

Even if rhetoric escalates, actual use of strategic weapons is constrained by:

• uncertainty of outcome,
• impossibility of guaranteed survival.

2. Elite self-preservation

Even authoritarian leaders depend on:

• military chains of command,
• technical operators,
• internal elites.

A global suicidal scenario requires too many coordinated irrational decisions.

3. Distributed decision system

No single actor can guarantee execution of extreme orders without resistance.

Potential friction points:

• generals,
• security services,
• technical failures,
• internal rivalries.

4. Economic and infrastructural coupling

Even adversaries remain indirectly connected via:

• trade,
• finance,
• logistics.

Full collapse would destroy the resource base of all actors.

5. Escalation without finalization

Conflicts tend to:

• expand regionally,
• intensify temporarily,

but then:

• stabilize,
• freeze,
• shift geographically.

Comparison to observable events

The model matches the following already observed patterns:

1. Stepwise escalation chain

Sequence:

• Ichkeria
• Georgia war 2008
• Annexation of Crimea
• War in Ukraine
• tensions around Iran
• Arctic / Greenland rhetoric

Interpretation: Escalation occurs, but in **increments**, not as immediate global war.

2. Nuclear rhetoric vs non-use

Observable:

• frequent nuclear threats
• zero battlefield nuclear use

Interpretation: Deterrence dominates over declared aggression.

3. Survival infrastructure (bunkers)

Observable:

• construction of underground facilities
• visibility via satellite, maps, leaks

Interpretation: Preparation for crisis exists, but:

• limited capacity
• dependence on external systems

Thus does not enable safe global self-destruction.

4. Political radicalization without system collapse

Examples:

• sharp rhetoric
• polarization
• crisis of institutions

Yet:

• no full internal collapse of major powers
• continued administrative function

5. Limited coordination between rivals

Observable:

• episodic contacts between leaders
• negotiations even during conflicts

Interpretation: Competition does not eliminate coordination channels.

Falsifiability / Refutations

The model is refutable.

It would be disproven by the following observables:

1. **Deliberate initiation of global nuclear war** by major powers without immediate existential trigger.
2. **Sustained (10+ years) total war** between major powers without stabilization phases.
3. **Complete collapse of command control** leading to uncontrolled escalation.
4. **Verified existence of fully autonomous survival systems** capable of supporting isolated elites for decades without external dependency.
5. **Simultaneous coordinated escalation** by multiple great powers toward mutual destruction.

Observation of such events would support the Radical cooperative escalation model instead.

Comparison of models

Observable	Quasistationary model	Radical model
Escalation pattern	Stepwise, limited, reversible	Monotonic growth toward total war
Nuclear weapons	Deterrence dominates	Planned eventual use
Leader motivation	Power preservation	Escape from accountability via catastrophe
Bunkers	Insufficient for full survival	Enable post-collapse survival
International contacts	Maintain partial coordination	Hidden conspiracy / coordination
War geography	Fragmented conflicts	Global synchronized war

Quantitative Appendix

Purpose

This appendix translates the qualitative statements of the «Quasistationary Model of Putin world war» and the competing «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» into the language of observable quantities and simple mathematical models.

The goal is to ensure refutability and verifiability of both concepts.

Definitions

Let \( t \) denote time in days since 2022.01.01.

Define the following observable functions:

• \( L(t) \) — cumulative losses in the Putin world war

 (for example, number of Russian orks demilitarized and denazified)

• \( \lambda(t) = \frac{dL}{dt} \) — daily loss rate

• \( S(t) \) — spatial spread of conflicts

 (number of active regions: Ichkeria, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, etc.)

• \( N(t) \) — nuclear engagement level

 (ordinal scale):
 0 — no rhetoric  
 1 — rhetorical threats  
 2 — deployment / alert  
 3 — tactical use  
 4 — strategic use  

• \( E(t) \) — escalation index, defined as:

\( E(t) = a\,\lambda(t) + b\,S(t) + c\,N(t) \)

where \(a,b,c>0\) are weights (chosen empirically).

Model predictions

Quasistationary model

The «Quasistationary Model of Putin world war» predicts:

• \( L(t) \sim t^2 \) for early stage, followed by deviation:

 \( L(t) \rightarrow L_{\max}(1 - e^{-kt}) \)

• \( \lambda(t) \) tends to stabilization:

 \( \lambda(t) \approx const \)

• \( S(t) \) grows stepwise and then saturates

• \( N(t) \le 2 \) (no nuclear use)

• \( E(t) \) shows quasi-periodic or saturating behavior:

 oscillations or plateau

Radical cooperative escalation model

The «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» predicts:

• \( L(t) \sim t^2 \) or faster (no saturation)

• \( \lambda(t) \) increases monotonically

• \( S(t) \rightarrow global \) (synchronous expansion)

• \( N(t) \rightarrow 3 \) or \(4\)

• \( E(t) \) grows monotonically (no plateau)

Comparison with observations

Loss dynamics

The «График спецоперации» suggests:

\( L(t) \approx 0.6 t^2 \) – \(0.8 t^2 \)

Data for 2026 indicate deviation:

• growth slower than quadratic
• \( \lambda(t) \approx 1000 \) ork/day

Interpretation:

• supports quasistationary tendency (weak evidence)

Spatial spread

Observed sequence:

Ichkeria → Georgia war 2008 → Annexation of Crimea → War in Ukraine → Iran → Arctic rhetoric

Interpretation:

• stepwise expansion (fits both models)
• absence of fully synchronized global war (fits quasistationary model)

Nuclear level

Observed:

• \( N(t) = 1\)–\(2 \)
• no actual use

Interpretation:

• consistent with quasistationary model
• radical model not yet confirmed

Political correlation

Empirical hypothesis:

Increase of external escalation correlates with internal instability (Impeachment, crisis, protests).

This remains to be quantified.

Refutation criteria

Refutation of quasistationary model

The model is falsified if any of the following occur:

1. \( N(t) \ge 3 \) (nuclear weapon used)
2. \( E(t) \) shows sustained monotonic growth over \( \ge 10 \) years
3. \( S(t) \) becomes global within short time (synchronous escalation)
4. \( L(t) \) continues strict quadratic or super-quadratic growth beyond 2030
5. verified existence of автономные bunker systems supporting elites for decades

Refutation of radical model

The model «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» is weakened if:

1. \( \lambda(t) \) stabilizes for long period (\(\ge 5\) years)
2. \( E(t) \) shows plateau or oscillation
3. no nuclear weapon used by ~2030–2040
4. conflicts repeatedly freeze instead of expanding globally

Minimal test horizon

The models can be discriminated within ~5–15 years:

• Short term (~2030):

 * nuclear use vs non-use
 * saturation vs acceleration

• Medium term (~2040):

 * persistence of plateau vs transition to global war

Notes

The coefficients \(a,b,c\) and functional forms are approximate and intended for qualitative discrimination between models.

Refinement of these parameters is left for further research.

This appendix does not assume any particular motivation of actors; only observable behavior is considered.

References

• Observations of escalation in Putin world war
• Public data on nuclear weapons and deterrence doctrine
• Reports on underground infrastructure and bunkers
• Historical analogy: Cold War

Notes by Editor

The articl above (except the top preamble) had been generated 2026.03.26 by ChatGPT.
The only few technical editions are made in the main body of the article, referring to formatting and the torilinks.
In such a way, both ЦhatGPT and Editor, by themselves, may be objects of scientific investigation and analysis.

«Constitution of Tartaria»

Flag of Tartaria

The article «Quasistationary Model of Putin world war» appeared as a result of discussion and attempts to improve the emulation «Constitution of Tartaria».

The direct access to muzugadro server is slowed sown by permanent attacks from side of KGB/Roskomnadzor. The main office of Roskomnadzor is well inside the Buffer Zone (see «Санитарная Зона»); so, one may expect, that during the Putin world war, many internet pirates will be demilitarized and denazified at the Transfer of hostilities to aggressor territory. The Putin plan of Dvizhuha (Путинский план спецоперации) implies the demilitarization and denazification of objects far away from the front line.
At the beginning of year 2026, the demilitarization and denazification of Roskomnadzor has not yet finished; so, the improvement of article «Constitution of Tartaria» is postponed.

However, ChatGPT had captured the main anchor, main plot of utopia «Tartaria», see «Bigpuf», and had criticized it as too pessimistic. Editor asked ChatGPT to find a more optimistic, but still realistic forecast. ChatGPT had suggested several links, but the forecasts reminded Editor the old sci-fi story .

The authors of the forecasts had just ignored the recent events of the putin world war; the authors seem to pretend, that they live at another planet and do not know, what at the Earth, the Putin world war is unfolding: Ichkeria 1992, 1999; Georgia, 2008; Ukraine, 2014; Syria, 2015; Israel, 2023; Iran, 2026; Greenland, 20??; Canada, 20??; then everywhere - in the similar way as the World War II had been unfolding after the 1938.09.30.Munich Agreement and Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (1939). In the similar way it is described in sci-fi «Orwell1984» (Oceania, Eurasia, Eastasia).

Being unable to find in the free access any forecast satisfying the requested criteria, ChatGPT had suggested its own model.
After several iterates of arguing, the forecast har been shaped as a Scientific concept, that is a concept that satisfies the TORI axioms. In paeticular. It is supposed to be verifiable and to to be Refutable.

Comparison

For comparison of Quasistationary Model of Putin world war to other concepts, model «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» is chosen in the most radical and most simple interpretation:
Russian war crime and the American President hate the peoples of their countries, afraid of impeachment, dismissal, accusations and punishment (perhaps very capital). In oder to avoid such a problem, the dictator decide to scale-up the Putin world war, to extend it to South-West Asia and North America continents.

Model «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» shows good agreement with observations.

The publications about the friendship between puitn and Donald Trump, the apparent 12 year sabotage of implementation of the Budapest memorandum, the TrumptyDumpty and the tariff war to destroy the USA economics and the evidences of the escalation of the Putin world war (See «Annexation of Canada», «Annexation of Greenland», «EpicFury», «Donroe Doctrine», ) - perfectly match this model.

More evidences of the friendship between Donald Trump and the war crime are collected in articles «Trump as KGB agent», «Трамп Дональд Фредович», «Трампнаш».
If one looks as a KGB agent, talks as a KGB agent, acts as a KGB agent, then, the main hypothesis is that it is KGB agent.

\( L \!=\! 0.8 d^2\)

\( L \!=\! 0.6 d^2\)

      График спецоперации

The apparent attempts of both Putin and Trump administrations to escalate the Putin world war to the scale of the World War II (or even worse) are confirmed also by do-called «График спецоперации». This graphic is shown in figure at right. Even the Russian propaganda admits the existence of this graphic.

The «График спецоперации» extrapolates the number \(L\) of Russian orks that are demilitarized and denazified in Ukraine since the beginning of year 2022 as quadratic function of time \(d\) measured in days since 2022.01.01.
The two curves are shown:
\( L = 0.8 d^2 \) и
\( L = 0.6 d^2 \)
To 2026, the Russian military loss in the putin's dvizhuha estimated by index.minfin.com.ua remain in the interval between the two curves.

The extrapolation of the «График спецоперации» indicates that after a dozen years, the war crime happens to be without the Cannon fodder, and the Putin world war should stop. While the war crime can not live without war, the Volodin's formula is supposed to work: "No putin - no Russia" («Нет Путина - нет России«).
Such an estimate show qualitative agreement with statistical models described in article «Duration».
The 3 models give the similar expectation for RF to collapse between years 2028 and 2042.
These numbers appear also in the titles of the sci-fi «Россия2028» and «Москва2042».
In such a way, the only small correction is necessary to the Trump's statement about ending of war: «End war in 24 hours» should be interpreted as «End war in 24 years».
While the Americans do not care about truth, such a correction does not make a big deal for the population. One does not care about quantity 22 as valuation of expression 2+2 - at least in words - with hope to use "2+2" while paying something and "22" as the "equivalent" in a case of earning something. This mentality is shown in movie «Alternative Math».
In the similar way, for the prihvatization of national goods at the end of the USSR, the agents of KGB could use term "trillion" as \(10^{18}\) while getting the credit from the Central Bank, and "trillion" as \(10^{12}\) while returning the "same" trillion to the Central Bank. As the result, at the end of century 20, the Russian ruble as national currency had lost the most of its initial value, but many Russian dollar billionaires appeared; see «KGB in power and business» («КГБ во власти и бизнесе»).

Model «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут» match the observations very well.
The good agreement with observations makes impression, that all the alternative hypitheses and, in particular, the «Quasistationary Model of Putin world war», are just wrong, inconsistent.
Then, the wish of Editor to present different points of view seem to be the only reason to upload the «Quasistationary Model of Putin world war» at TORI.
However, this is not exactly the case.

According to the estimate Until year 2026, the consumption of Russian cannon fodder in the Putin world war, mostly in the dvizhuha against Ukraine, follow the yellow curve at the «график спецоперации». In particular, in 2025, the total number of orks, demilitarized in Ukraine, exceeds million; the primitive quadratic extrapolation shows tremendous agreement with measurements.

480pxStabilization of the daily consumption of orks, beginning of 2026

But the estimates for year 2026 show, that the consume of the Russian cannon fodder increase slower than the linear extrapolation suggests; the total number of demilitarized and denazified Russian orks increases a little but slower, than the quadratic trend (yellow curve at the graphic above).

The screenshot of the estimate for 2026.03.26 (see figure at right) show that the consumption or the Russian Cannon fodder stabilizes near value 1000 ork/day, of order of 30,000 ork/month, that is (risky extrapolation) of order of 0.4 million ors our year, that is (very risky extrapolation) of order ot 40 million orks/centiry. The last "very risky" extrapolation show, that, to century 21

However, one may expect, that the war crime does not count with such 40 millions orks who agree to leave their property and their families to be plundered by the Russian offees and to die in foreign country as nazis, aggressors, occupants. The estimates with the Churov comb and the Pamfilova peak («Пик Памфиловой») indicate that of order of a million Russians vote for the war crime and his party; over ballots for these scoundrels are fakes surplussed by the corrupted election committees. At least the significant part of this amount is already consumed in the Dvishuha. This indicates, that since year 2026, anytime, the war crime may happen without cannon fodder in amount that would allow him to continue the dvizhuha against Ukraine.

EpicFury since year 2026

In this interpretation, the USA attack on Iran (see «EpicFury»), as the plans of Donald Trump to do the same with Canada, Greenland and other countries can be interpreted as not an attempt to end the Human Civilization in the last biggest world-wide war, but as a reserve war to boil-up and to boost - in order to continue and maintain the Putin world war after the collapse of RF and, perhaps, even after the surrounding of Iran, - however, if the USA succeed to defeat Iran in the heavy, expensive, long and destructive "Small Victorious War", denoted also with term «EpicFury».

Conclution

The comparison above show, that as of 2026, the observed publications do not allow to give preference to any of models
(1) «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут»
(2) «Quasistationary Model of Putin world war».

ChatGPT and Editor have applied all possible efforts to dig into these models, but the publications do not yet allow to refute any of these two models.

However, in any of these two models, to century 22, the North, Central and East of Eurasia are exacted to be depopulated. Sorry.

Warnings by Editor

Both the historic model by ChatGPT and the "Notes" by Editor are prepared and uploaded with the Scientific goals.

It is not an attempt to affect the policy of officials who perform the appeasing aggression.
Apparently, the appeasing aggression brings benefits to offees who milk the budget with the pretext of wars.
There is no way to change this realpolitik with a scientific analysis.
The people seem to be not interested in truth, even in a case of elementary arithmetics, see «Alternative Math».
Motivation of state terrorists is difficult to affect, see «WhatForChatGPT».

This emulation is not an attempt to suggest the solution of the problem; it is not an attempt to stop the unfolding of the Putin world war.
Beginning soon after the collapse of the USSR with Annexation of Ichkeria, this war spreads to Transnistria, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, and any moment may reach the Western Europe and North America, see «Annexation of Canada», «Annexation of Crimea», «Annexation of Greenland», «Donroe Doctrine», «EpicFury», «TrumpForever». The usurpation and the resulting spreading of the Putin world war to all the continents and the expected results for Moscovia and for the USA are described in sci-fi «Семидесятый меридиан», «Титанин», «Fahrenheit 451», «Orwell1984», «TheDayAfter», «CivilWar2024».
Neither Editor not ChatGPT know how to stop this.
The scientific site cannot compete with propaganda in efficiency.
Researcher, as a writer, is neither doctor, nor a medicine. Perhaps, just a pain.
If Americans finally loss any interest in the truth (see «Alternative Math») and decide to convert the USA from democracy to an authoritarian monarchy (see also «Collapse of USA»), then neither ChatGPT nor Editor can help them.

However, Editor and ChatGPT still keep their right (and even duty)
to call things with their proper names,
to suggest definitions for euphemisms and other ambiguous terms,
to construct historic models and
to compare their predictions with a posteriori observations (mainly the articles available in the free access).

P.S. The KGB and Roskomnadzor any day may sent some Boshirov and Petrov with some Novichok or Po-210 in order to block the updates of mizugadro in a radical way. For the case, if Japanese omavari fail to catch the terrorists in time, Editor asks for the pardon from the colleagues who read/load articles at Mizugadro. Please, excuse the Editor, if some articles will be never polished or never uploaded. Editor tries to do as much as possible and as well as possible.

More references

Keywords

«196o», «21st century war», «Alternative Math», «Annexation of Canada», «Annexation of Crimea», «Annexation of Greenland», «Annexation of Ichkeria», «Budapest memorandum», «Cannibal tale», «ChatGPT», «Chechen wars», «CivilWar2024», «Collapse of RF», «Conference Emulation by ChatGPT», «Corruption», «[[]]», «Demilitarization», «Demilitarization and denazification», «Denazification», «Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism», «Designate Russia as terrorist state», «Deterrence», «Dvizhuha», «Duration», «Donroe Doctrine», «End War in 24 hours», «EpicFury», «Escalation», «Fascism», «Geopolitics», «Historic model», «Impeachment», «Jinping», «Mechanisms of History», «Moscovia», «Noxa», «New World Order», «Nuclear taboo», «Nuclear weapon», «Orwell1984», «Pahanat», «Putin», «Putin world war», «Quasistationary model», «Radical cooperative escalation model», «Realpolitik», «Ruski mir», «Russian invasion into Ichkeria», «Russian invasion into Georgia», «Russian invasion into Ukraine», «Tartaria», «TheDayAfter», «Transfer of hostilities to aggressor territory», «Trump as KGB agent», «USA-Iran War», «Usurpation», «ValdaiCluster», «War Crime», «WhatForChatGPT», «World War I», «World War II», «Wreckage of Crimea», «Yamanatu»,

«А нас то за что», «Алтайский Дворец Путина», «Аннексия Ичкерии», «Аннексия Крыма», «Будапештский меморандум», «Валдайский Дворец Путина», «Валдайский Кластер», «Весь мир будет наш», «Всех убьём, всех ограбим», «Геленджикский Дворец Путина», «График спецоперации», «Движуха», «Дворцы Путина», «Денег нет», «Исторические модели», «Каннибальная сказка», «Карельская Дача Путина», «Коррупция», «Новый Мировой Порядок», «Механизмы истории», «Московия», «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут», «Новый Мировой Порядок», «Орвелл1984», «Остов Крым», «Остров Крым», «От Аляски до Одесы», «Отмывание денег», «Паханат», «Путинская мировая война», «Распад РФ», «Российское вторжение в Грузию», «Российское вторжение в Ичкерию», «Российское вторжение в Сирию», «Российское вторжение в Украину», «Русский мир», «Санитарная Зона», «Ст.353 УК РФ», «Фашизм», «Чеченские войны», «Ядерное оружие»,